An Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters finds former President Trump leading President Biden 45% to 36%, while 11% plan to vote for someone else and 8% are undecided. In a potential 2024 U.S. Senate Election, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey holds an eight-point advantage over Republican challenger David McCormick, leading 41% to 33%. Eight percent indicate they support someone else, and 18% are undecided.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, explained the juxtaposition between Biden and Casey support with two groups of voters: “Biden leads Trump 44% to 39% among voters under 40, however those under 30 within this group break for Trump 45% to 39%. Conversely, Casey leads McCormick 46% to 22% among voters under 40, and leads 42% to 23% with voters under 30.”

“An additional group that splits their ticket include voters whose highest level of education is a high school degree or less: these voters break for Trump 53% to 27%, while Casey leads this group 36% to 33% over McCormick.”

Kimball added, “Casey leads McCormick among women, 44% to 26%, while men break for McCormick over Casey 41% to 39%.”

Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 35% approval rating during his first year in office, while 27% percent of respondents disapprove of Shapiro’s performance as Governor. A plurality of respondents (39%) are neutral. President Joe Biden holds a 31% approval rating among Pennsylvanians, while 51% disapprove of the job the President is doing.

Half of Trump voters (50%) note they can not think of anything Trump might do in the next several months that would make them choose not to support him for president in 2024, while 22% can think of something he might say or do to make them not support his candidacy. A larger sum (53%) of Biden voters say they could not think of anything that would make them change their mind, while 17% indicate something could make them change their mind.

Respondents were asked about both the 2016 and 2020 election outcomes, if Trump and Biden won fair and square, or if the victor stole the election. A majority of respondents (61%) think Trump won fair and square in 2016, while 52% say the same about Biden in 2020. Twenty percent (20%) think Trump stole the 2016 election, and 34% think Biden stole the 2020 election.

Kimball noted, “A majority of Democratic voters, 53%, think Trump won fair and square in 2016, while 32% think he stole the election. A majority of Republican voters, 60%, think Biden stole the election in 2020, while 24% think the current president won fair and square.”

Midwest Study: The PA general election survey is part of a 22-state study on the Midwest region and surrounding states. States that have been released as of October 11 include Kentucky, Oklahoma, Idaho and Ohio. Additional states will be released over the next couple of weeks, along with the study results by the Middle West Review that is researching perceptions of the Midwest region.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Pennsylvania poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 430 Pennsylvania voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=468 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=430. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Pennsylvania voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (PA SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.