Clearly Trump vs. Biden sucks up all the oxygen, TV time, pundit talk, money and interest in the known universe.  But that doesn’t make Congressional races boring after- thoughts.  Well ok, after-thoughts but not necessarily boring.  On paper, most of the New Jersey races are probably already over.  But that doesn’t mean we can use the results from New Jersey kind of like tea leaves.  In most cases, we should know the outcome of our Congressional races before some parts of the country have started counting.  Thinking about the possible outcomes and what those outcomes might mean for the rest of the country at least keeps us awake on could be a really long night or even a long week.

The “Locks”

The Democrats should walk to easy victories in the 1^st (Norcross), 5^th (Gottheimer), 6^th (Pallone), 8^th (Sires), 9^th (Pascrell) 10^th (Payne), 11^th (Sherrill) and 12^th (Watson Coleman).  Among these folks, Gottheimer and Sherrill are the newest kids on the block, so they are the most vulnerable.  If they somehow lose or more likely they win by less than expected margins, it could be a signal that Trump is also beating expectations. This could mean Trump is doing much better among the conservative democrats/RINOs that first elected Gottheimer in 2016 and suburban lacrosse moms that carried Sherill to victory in 2018.   Those Democrat/Rinos and Lacrosse Moms are a big part of the Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia electorate.

Conversely, if Republican Congressman Chris Smith loses in the 4^th it could signal that Trump is headed for a slaughter of biblical proportions. A Smith loss would signal an electorate that desperately wants to get rid of anything Republican even one that is as comfortable as a pair of 40 year old slippers.

The What ifs

New Jersey has three House races that are kind of interesting.  I say interesting in the way that only a political scientist can find interesting.  In the real world, I expect that the Democrats will win all three.  But they are interesting because they each show a slightly different wrinkle about this election season and generally about politics in American today.  How they turn out will provide initial evidence and answers for the pundits to talk about while we wait for the presidential race to figure itself out.

The 2^nd District:  Van Drew vs. Kennedy

Politicians in the middle of a race know stuff.  They know what is working and what is not working when

they talk to people. They know what people are saying to them and about them on the trail.  This is a little less true with Covid campaigning but still true.  According to several news reports, Van Drew has recently tried to walk back his “undying support” for Donald Trump.  That has to stem in part to his campaign trail sense that Trump’s popularity today isn’t what it was during impeachment.  Now Trump’s handling of Covid-19 is more important and that hurts Van Drew. That, of course, has national implications.   Another interesting part of this race is Amy Kennedy’s voice.  When she won the primary, I was convinced she was going to be hung out to dry as a stalking horse for the far left.  A Kennedy after all must be an AOC, big government liberal? Right?  But Kennedy’s voice and inflection patterns are right out of South Jersey not out of South Boston.  I think that matters and it matters a lot.  This homegrown connection plus Van Drew’s defection, which ticks off both local republicans and democrats, is an example of that congressional races have local quirks, even if they have national implications.  Lastly, Kennedy’s cash advantage has evaporated in the closing weeks and to some extent so has her lead.  If Van Drew comes back and wins this one it might be an indication that the tightening presidential polls across the country are actually real.

The 3^rd District: Kim vs. That Guy from the 2^nd District (Richter)

Of the three interesting districts the 3^rd seems the safest for the incumbent, in this case Democrat Kim.

One reason is Richter is such a clear opportunist and carpetbagger.  He was ready to take on Van Drew when he was a Democrat and when that changed he bought his way to the nomination in the 3^rd.  Another factor is that the Ocean County Republican organization is doing a great impression of a dumpster fire, that hurts Richter. Once again local flavor matters.

That fact that Richter has doubled down on his support for Trump makes it an interesting contrast to the 2^nd district and taken together the results will be an interesting indication of which way the weathervane is turning for the president.

The 7^th District: Malinowski vs. Kean

The closest race is New Jersey is this one.   It is ugly and mean.  Kean says Malinowski wants to protect

sexual predators of children.  Malinowski says Kean is a closet supporter of Qnon.  Both are kind of ridiculous claims.  It does seem like Malinowski is more engaged and actively fighting to be elected more than Kean is.  Kean is bunkered down hoping his name and non-confrontational get-along with everybody, but never say much, style is enough.

The interesting point about this race is that it will be a true test of Republican ticket splitting.  Trump is hated and reviled in the district and in 2018 that was enough for Malinowski to win over Leonard Lance.  The key question is whether Trump revulsion is enough in 2020 for him to keep his seat.  Kean is offering himself up as the most inoffensive and least threatening Republican imaginable while at the same time doing all he can to tie Malinowski to the far left “squad”. Kean is saying “Hey ok I voted for Trump, but because of me you don’t have to.”

It is also interesting to note that how the candidates stand or more honestly how strongly they support Israel has become an issue in the campaign.  This has a national flavor to it. President Trump has made a strong and consistent attempt to take the Jewish community away from Democrats through his actions in the Middle East.  At the same time, the Democratic party has been forced to defend itself and its support for Israel from anti-Semitic rhetoric by some of its house members.  Israel and the Jewish vote will not be the make or break difference in the 7^th district race, but it could play a role in an election this tight.  The same could be said nationally about the Presidential race.

So, there you have my best attempt to make watching paint dry seem interesting and exciting.  At least, it will give us something to talk about while we are waiting for Pennsylvania to finally count all its damn ballot and tell us how the president is.

Oh, ok one other thing.  Here is a long shot yet truly terrifying scenario for the 2020 election.  2020 has been way more of a dumpster fire than the Ocean County Republicans so this is just the kind of thing that could only happen is this crap hole of a year.

If you look at the 2020 consensus poll average on any web site with an interactive map (270 to win, 538) Biden is up 290 to 163 in the electoral college, with 7 states and parts of states in the toss-up category.  If Trumps wins all seven toss up states (Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Maine and Nebraska[1]), then manages to flip Virginia and New Hampshire the electoral college is split 269 to 269.  If that happens Trump likely wins and Pence definitely become Vice President because that is what the constitutions says happens[2].

But now let’s add yet another 2020 cluster bomb to the mix, the US senate. Once again starting with the 2020 consensus polling Democrats will have 49 senate seats and Republicans will have 46.  However, there are 5 toss up US senate seats, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina and both seats in Georgia.  Yes, that is right Georgia has two senate seats up at the same time.  So, let’s say Republicans win 4 of them, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina and the regular Georgia seat.  They would not be up 50 to 49 in the senate.  The kicker?  The second Georgia Senate seat is what is called a jungle primary.  The top two vote getters (regardless of party) go to a run-off if no single candidate gets 50%.  If this happens, it means that the entire world will have to wait until January to know whether or not the US senate will be a 50-50 tie.  And you thought the presidential race took up a lot of oxygen.

Like Tom Brady winning his 6^th super bowl put an end to all questions about who was the greatest of all time, a presidential electoral college tie and a tie in the US senate would cement 2020 as by far– the all time —come on say it with me—dumpster fire year of all time.  God help us if that happens.

Matt Hale

Seton Hall University

[1] Maine and Nebraska split electoral votes by congressional district Trump needs all electoral college votes inboth states in this scenario.

[2] The House picks the president but they vote as a state delegation not as individual house members. Republicans currently have more states under their control than Democrats although a switch in Pennsylvania and Florida could change that.