Frequently, one election produces a result reexamined and readjusted in the next election. New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections – along with Virginia’s – at a bare minimum give voters a chance to reevaluate those conditions that produced a winner and loser in the presidential elections that preceded them by a year on the election calendar.

Whatever the issues from year to year, an enduring question arises as voters in New Jersey consider the political lay of the land determined in part by the prior year’s presidential contest. Should the state follow the trend produced by the national result, or buck the trend? Voters in this state like to provide an answer, usually zigzagging between the two parties to balance the political deck.

Consider the last 30 years here.

A year after Democrat Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory over incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush, Republican Christie Todd Whitman defeated incumbent Democratic New Jersey Governor James Florio. In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won the presidency, followed by Democrat James McGreevey’s 2001 New Jersey win. Bush won reelection in 2004. In 2005, Democrat Jon Corzine prevailed. In 2008, Democrat Barack Obama won the presidency, followed in 2009 by Republican Chris Christie winning the governorship of New Jersey. Republican Trump won nationally in 2016, followed by Democrat Phil Murphy’s Garden State victory a year later.

Now, before 2024 the Trump era suggested his presence in politics would only drive voters in Blue New Jersey more emphatically to Democratic Party candidates at the presidential level. The rolls of Democrats swelled to a million during the first Trump presidency, as voters ousted or forced into retirement Republican congressional incumbents in part as a statement of resistance to the sitting GOP president.

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Retrospective/Advance