Early voting is relatively new to New Jersey, but it seems like it has taken hold among Garden State residents. Whatever happened to the good old tradition of showing up on a Tuesday Election Day, casting a ballot, and leaving the polling place having done one’s civic duty? Absentee voting had been and remains more popular with Democrats than Republicans, but Republicans in New Jersey are increasingly taking advantage of early voting—in-person, that is—and in some cases, even outpacing their Democrat neighbors, friends, and colleagues.

Perhaps the sacredness of the first Tuesday of November is not actually so important and having the opportunity to “get it over with” after a grueling campaign season is a welcome relief. On another note, simply having more days to work voting into one’s schedule may have proved pragmatically appealing. Most people, in general, still prefer to vote in-person on Election Day, however.

There is, perhaps, a yearning for normalcy in a time when the words “unprecedented” and “once in a lifetime” are used with dizzying frequency. Recall in 2020 when mail-in ballots, or ballots put into drop-boxes, were the norm in New Jersey. The world was caught up in the COVID-19 pandemic when gathering in groups posed risks to public health, both for poll workers as well as voters. The first COVID vaccines were not rolled out by Pfizer and Moderna until December, so preventative measures such as distancing and isolating were the only steps that could be implemented. The former president had claimed the 2020 election was “stolen” and cast doubts over the security of mail-in voting as an attempt to undermine public confidence in electoral security following his defeat by Joe Biden. While no cases of widespread voter fraud were ever proven in over 60 court cases, the damage done to the image and perception of electoral integrity was severe among Republicans, combined with Trump’s refusal to concede.

Trump has also been wildly inconsistent with his messaging on advance voting, condemning it while participating in early voting himself in Florida. In April, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, “ABSENTEE VOTING, EARLY VOTING, AND ELECTION DAY VOTING ARE ALL GOOD OPTIONS. REPUBLICANS MUST MAKE A PLAN, REGISTER, AND VOTE!” Over the summer, however, he said, “the mail-in voting isn’t working. It’s corrupt.”

He has also said, without evidence, that mail-in ballots equate to “crooked elections.”

Nevertheless, expanding voting opportunities has been embraced by both parties and unaffiliated voters. In 2021, the state of New Jersey authorized early, in-person voting, giving voters an additional three days ahead of primary elections and nine days ahead of general elections to go to a booth and make their voices heard. Three years since then, it would appear that New Jerseyans—Republicans in particular—have started warming up to the option even if they have not embraced absentee voting like Democrats, whether because of Trump’s messaging casting skepticism, or their own personal preference to the contrary.

New Jersey is not considered “in play” for the major presidential campaigns. All eyes this general election are on the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. The “blue dot” of Omaha, Nebraska’s autonomous electoral vote, is reportedly leaning to Harris by a comfortable margin amid a sea of red. The other states are deemed too close to tell by pollsters, while the New York Times’ polling suggests Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 1%.

Polling is a science unto itself, and an imperfect one. Political scientists will scrutinize and measure every possible angle to determine if surveyed data can offer an insight as to the outcome of one of the most consequential elections in American history. One thing is certain—nothing is certain. Preconceived norms should be regarded as, at best, worth a second glance. In New Jersey, perhaps as a surprise, early voting has risen among registered Republicans, outpacing registered Democrats in several areas.

Passaic County Clerk Danielle Ireland-Imhof said that early voting in her county had surged. “Offering three ways to vote enables New Jersey voters to choose the most convenient time and method for them,” Ireland-Imhof said. “Early voting turnout in Passaic County for the 2024 General Election is the highest on record. On the first day of the early in-person voting period, turnout exceeded the entire early in-person turnout from 2023’s General Election by over 20%. And, to date, the 2024 early in-person voting turnout is more than triple the early in-person turnout from 2022’s General Election cycle.”

During the former president’s previous campaigns, early voting and absentee voting had been discouraged from the top, and most Republicans preferred to vote in-person on Election Day. However, as the messaging from above shifted, now encouraging Republicans to vote early, the behaviors appeared to have shifted in turn. Republicans still prefer to go into the ballot booth rather than the mailbox, but the uptick in early in-person voting among the GOP suggests a greater sense of comfort with the idea of casting a vote ahead of time.

Is there an imbalance between D voters and R voters? Apparently not in Passaic County, at least, where blue bastions in Paterson and Clifton stand out against red and purple suburbs. “In Passaic County, registered Democrat and Republican voters are visiting early voting sites at nearly equal rates,” Ireland-Imhof told Insider NJ. “Mail-in ballot returns also show a similar balance across both parties. I believe this reflects the strong trust voters have in the available options and are casting their ballots when it works best for them.”

The Curtis Bashaw campaign, seeking to defeat Congressman Andy Kim in the race for US Senate, said that Republican enthusiasm was “strongest in GOP base counties,” like Ocean, Morris, and Monmouth. They further claimed that early voting has overtaken vote-by-mail (absentee voting) in Atlantic, Monmouth, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex, and Warren Counties.

About half a million in-person early votes have been cast, as of Tuesday, with roughly 193,000 Republicans having voted, to 183,000 Democrats, to 128,000 unaffiliated voters. Overwhelmingly, however, Democrats continue to hold the lead on absentee voting around the state.

Statewide, there are approximately 2.5 million registered Democrats and 1.6 million registered Republicans. There are also 2.4 million unaffiliated voters in New Jersey, close on the heels of the still-majority Democrats.

There are approximately 1.1 million voters who requested absentee ballots, approximately 598,000 of them Democrats, 286,000 unaffiliated, and 214,000 Republicans.

It is also worth noting that while registered Democrats or Republicans are voting, the votes themselves are not yet counted. Therefore, it is implied that registered party members are voting for the candidates of their own party, but aisle-crossing cannot be accounted for.

Until the votes are actually counted, it is not possible to confidently ascribe whether or not there has been any aisle-crossing among advance voters, but it is undeniable that early voting is simply convenient. Working mothers in particular are a vital demographic and lead busy lives. Unlike Australia, voting is not compulsory, and the US does not recognize Election Day as a holiday where people would be off from work. With Election Day on a Tuesday—the middle of the work-week—it can pose some difficulty for those who only want to vote in person, eschewing absentee ballots in the mail or ballot drop-boxes. Early voting runs from October 26 to November 3, giving New Jerseyans ample opportunity to cast their ballots ahead of Election Day itself, if they choose.

Just over a quarter million registered New Jersey voters showed up over the weekend. As of this writing, on Wednesday, Republicans had passed up Democrats for early in-person voting in CD-2, CD-3, CD-4, CD-5, CD-7, and CD-11. Only CD-4, however, saw a majority of Republican advance voters over Democrats. CD-7 is considered the major competitive race in the state, pitting incumbent Republican Congressman Tom Kean, Jr., against Democratic challenger Sue Altman. When redistricting gerrymandered the state anew, CD-7’s Democratic Congressman Tom Malinowski was competing in a district that became more Republican than before and subsequently lost his bid for re-election in 2022. As Altman seeks to reclaim the territory lost to the media-reclusive Kean, she still faces an uphill battle.

A Monmouth University poll showed that Kean had a 2% edge over Altman, but there was a margin of error of almost 5%. In short, the race is no foregone conclusion. If advance voting is any indication, then the trend should give some confidence to Altman, where 51,298 Democrats had voted by mail or early in-person compared to 39,409 Republicans.

Statewide, the return-rate for Democrats and Republicans who requested absentee ballots has been roughly even, with a slight majority for Democrats 64% to 61%. Unaffiliated voters’ return rate is substantially lower at 42.5%.

Women will play a huge role in the outcome of the election, and organizations such as Women 4 Us have been mobilizing female Republican voters to back Harris in Pennsylvania. Indeed, the Vice President’s campaign has allied with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, a staunch Republican, daughter of Vice President Dick Cheney, and arch-opponent of Donald Trump. In September she warned that Trump was an “unrecoverable catastrophe.” Harris, the Democrat, and Cheney, the Republican, have been trying to court female voters to their campaign, emphasizing the idea of “country over party” on the grounds that one can still be a Republican and not vote for Trump, and that ballots are secret when it comes time to fill in the bubble or push the button in the booth. “No one has to know,” has been a campaign theme, where there is a sizable gender gap between male and female voters in their preference between Trump and Harris.

Suburban Republican women voters hold exceptional power in this election, and while it is assumed Republican voters will support Republican candidates—and they certainly may in down-ballot races—in a race so close, in swing states, Republican women could be a deciding factor. Within the state itself, Republican women will influence the tone and nature of future GOP campaigns. Candidates would ignore the voices of their wives, mothers, grandmothers, sisters, aunts, daughters, nieces, and granddaughters at their peril.