This morning’s poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University in Madison shows a big lead for U.S. Rep. Andy Kim (D-3) in the Democratic Primary race for U.S. Senate.

The FDU polls shows Kim with a 32% advantage among likely primary voters over his nearest rival NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy who clocked in at 20%. The incumbent, disgraced Senator Bob Menendez, remains the first choice for 9% of Democratic Primary voters, one point ahead of labor leader Dr. Patricia Campos-Medina who registered an 8% tally.

Undecided voters comprise 31% of respondents.

The survey of 504 likely Democratic voters was a snapshot of voter sentiment the week of January 21-28, 2024.

“Generally, institutional support is enough to win a primary in New Jersey,” said Dan Cassino, a professor at FDU and the director of the poll. “With Murphy down, this election is a test of whether county organizations still have the power to choose a candidate.”  

The poll revealed that Murphy had more name recognition (68% to 52%) and that Kim has higher favorability ratings. Twenty-four percent “strongly support” Mr. Kim compared to 13% who support Mrs. Murphy.

The poll also reveals a stark racial breakdown. Kim has an eye-popping lead among white primary voters (47% to 15%) and a modest lead among Asian-Americans (34 to 24).

Murphy found favor among Black voters (she leads Kim 24 to 16) and has a huge lead among Hispanic voters (26% to 10%.)

“The real fight here is between white liberals, who are largely backing Kim, and more moderate Black and Hispanic voters, who are lining up behind Murphy,” Cassino added. “Kim has always run as a centrist candidate, but these liberal voters dislike the county organizations enough that they’ve adopted him as one of their own.”

The survey was conducted between January 21 and January 28, 2024 out by Braun Research of Princeton, New Jersey. Approximately half of the sample (238, or 46 percent) were from a list of adult New Jersey residents who have voted in previous New Jersey Democratic primary elections. Voter lists were obtained from Aristotle International of Washington, DC. The remainder of the sample (284, or 54 percent) were from a random digital dial sample of New Jersey residents who (a) identified as Democrats, or independents who lean towards the Democratic Party, and (b) stated that they would vote in the Democratic Senate primary.

Respondents were contacted via either live caller telephone interviews, or text-to-web surveys sent to cellular phones, resulting in an overall sample of 504 Democratic respondents. 54 of the surveys were carried out via live caller telephone interviews on landlines, 246 on live caller interviews to cell phones, and the remainder (220) were done on a web platform via weblinks sent via SMS to cell phones. Surveys were conducted only in English.

The data were weighted to be representative of the population of New Jersey Democrats, according to data from Pew Research. This composition, rather than one based solely on past Democratic primary voters, was used because of the largely unprecedented nature of the highly competitive primary expected in this cycle. The weights used, like all weights, balance the demographic characteristics of the sample to match known population parameters. The weighted results used here are balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education and race/ethnicity. Different beliefs about the likely composition of the electorate would lead to different weighting decisions, and, thus, to different outcomes in the results of the poll.