All eyes seem to be on the state of Florida this summer.  It has been one of the nation’s COVID hotspot—almost daily shattering records for its number of cases and resultant deaths for weeks now. Teachers and parents sued the Florida Education Commissioner  Ron Corcoran and Governor Ron DeSantis arguing that opening schools in August violates a provision in the Florida Constitution requiring the state to ensure schools are safe.  And the Miami Marlin’s baseball season had to be delayed before it began, as a number of players tested positive for COVID.

Floridians concerns about the COVID pandemic are evidenced in recent polls. A July 23  Quinnipiac University poll found overwhelming support for masks in Florida. Seventy-nine percent of Floridians believe that the state should mandate masks—an action that Governor DeSantis has refused to do. Eighty-three percent of Floridians report the spread of the coronavirus is a serious problem in the state, and 70 percent consider the spread of the coronavirus in the state “out of control”.  And COVID isn’t the only story going on in Florida.  As the state enters the busier half of hurricane season, the concerns for an overactive Atlantic season loom large, as the first storm hit this weekend.

It is within this context the Floridians will be going to the polls in 2020— tomorrow for the state’s primary and then in November on election day. For the past six presidential elections, Florida has voted for the winner.  Currently Biden holds a five point lead on Trump in Florida—in part driven by older residents who are breaking right now for Biden.  There will be lots of media stories, predictions and attention paid to the Trump v Biden race in the state; however, there is something else happening.  Democrats have filled many of the down races on the ballot.  This means that there is real possibility to flip some seats from the local level to the state legislature to Congress, along with drawing out more voters to Biden.

Paula Liang, Co-Finance Co-Chair of Donna Deegan for Congress in Florida has been working hard since the 2016 election to help fill the down ballot in the state.  As she noted “State legislature races are incredibly important because those bodies decide how Federal Elections are conducted. And in 2021 they will re-draw the maps based on the 2020 Census. When I climbed out from under my bed after the 2018 Florida recount, in which I represented every Democrat at some point in very Red St Johns County, I realized that we never had a chance to flip a Chamber of the State Legislature,  because so many Republicans ran unopposed.  I was shocked and furious.”

This finding propelled Paula (and others) into action.   “When I started working with a friend who is running for Congress against a two-term incumbent whose best event is hiding in his office, we started studying the down ballot, and joined forces with statewide and national groups to put one of our supporters in every down ballot race in which a Republican incumbent expected a walk. There was some surprise from the Florida political establishment. One called them “weirdo Dem Longshots” so of course we turned that into a hashtag. Everyone, up and down the ballot is running to boost Joe Biden’s chances of taking our critical 29 electoral votes. But everyone is also ready, willing and able to do the job if elected.”

The fuller slate of down ballot races has the real potential to impact both the presidential election and the composition of the legislature. Local races matter and can swing the elections both up and down the ticket. And they may matter even more this year in Florida, adding a new layer to all the campaigns’ GOTV strategies and predictive models.  As the state emerges from its August primary and the candidates are shored up, the attention to local races can be a catalyst to increase voter participation.  This factor may also play an outsized role in the COVID landscape as there may be less large political rallies, and more local candidate and party outreach.

The pandemic itself may be playing another important role. Florida does not have a state policy on masks or shutdowns.  Instead these decisions have been left to local mayors, schools, and county officials.  This patchwork approach has brought increased attention to these officials, the decisions they are making, and the subsequent public health impact.  Without national or state policy, COVID is, in many ways, a local issue in Florida and local leadership is emerging as critical in the health crisis.   Citizens may feel compelled to turn out to support a local candidate.  And, in doing so, vote an entire ticket.

The down ballot races also have the potential to change the gender and racial composition of Florida’s representatives across the state.  The Center for the American Women in Politics at Rutgers notes that there are 27 women (across parties) running for Congressional seats in the state. And many more running for state and local offices.  And Marie Claire magazine which is tracking candidates notes that there are at least 22 Black candidates running for various Florida offices. The diversity of the candidates will continue to lead to shifts in who is elected to govern and drive voters to the polls.

Patricia Brigham, President of the nonpartisan League of Women Voters notes that “Women do vote in large numbers and we hope that women will be heartened by the large number of women running for office and that could bring more women to the polls.”  And she also stresses the importance of the down ballot races, as many of these races focus on key local issues (such as schools and judgeships) that are critical to life in the community.

There will undoubtedly be a great deal of attention on Florida and its precious electoral votes for President. The state and local races this year may just be an underestimated factor in November. And they may play a role in impacting everything from the local city councils to the White House itself.