With 1 million more registered Democrat than Republican voters in New Jersey, no one gave Jack Ciattarelli a chance. Despite these long odds, however, Ciattarelli almost pulled off one of the greatest political upsets in New Jersey history. That Ciattarelli came so close to defeating Governor Murphy, was no surprise to me. Rather, that Ciattarelli did not ultimately prevail is a cautionary tale of missed opportunities and valuable lessons for the 2022 congressional and 2023 legislative mid-terms elections.

Here’s my top take-aways from the 2021 Gubernatorial Election:

The Candidate: Charming, handsome, humble and relatable, Jack Ciattarelli was the perfect candidate for New Jersey. He was a Jersey guy who was as comfortable with “Main Street” as “Wall Street.” On the campaign trail, Ciattarelli displayed the charisma of JFK and the communication skills of Ronald Reagan. He was genuine (in an age of packaged politicians), a tireless campaigner (often campaigning for more than 16 hours a day), a proud Italian who reveled in his family’s humbled background; and he used his great sense of humor (like Ronald Reagan had) to not only highlight policy and personal differences between him and Gov. Murphy, but to disarm women and Independents who had been turned off by the negative tone of
recent campaigns.

Bergen is Back: Phil Murphy figured Bergen County (12% of the state’s vote) was going to be easy win for him. Afterall, Bergen has not elected a Republican county wide officer since 2014 and Democrats hold a massive 262,411 to 147,780 voter registration edge. In 2017, Phil Murphy won Bergen County by more than 34,000 votes; and last year Joe Biden won Bergen by 16%. But Bergen County loved Ciattarelli. More than $1.2 million (before the match) came from Bergen donors, massive crowds met Ciattarelli during his 10 day closing blitz, and “Jack” signs were all over the county. Ciattarelli lost Bergen by approximately 13,000 votes (although won Bergen on the voting machines 52%-47%.) Ciattarelli dominated the Route 17 corridor from North Arlington to Mahwah, beat Murphy handily in strategically important Paramus, and won big in virtually all of the towns north of Route 4. Ciattarelli injected life into a moribund Bergen Republican party and with the right candidates and with enough funding, Republicans have a shot at winning the County Executive race and knocking off Rep. Josh Gottheimer in 2022.

Leadership matters: Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 in Passaic County; but Passaic County GOP Chair Peter Murphy led Republicans to perhaps the most stunning performance out of all the counties. Ciattarelli won every town in Passaic County except for Paterson and the City of Passaic. In 2017, Phil Murphy carried Passaic by more than 24,000 votes; but this year Phil Murphy was held to just a 2% lead over Ciattarelli. Currently, the Passaic GOP is on the verge of winning at least one County Commissioner seat. Putting these results in perspective: Passaic County GOP has not won a County Commissioner spot since 2009 or a county wide officer position since 2014. Peter Murphy has demonstrated that leadership does matter. His encyclopedic knowledge of Passaic, fund-raising skills, and hands-on grass-roots oriented campaign style is exactly what the NJ GOP needs.

Money also matters: What could have been a rout by Republicans statewide was, instead, a more modest victory- due, in large part, to disappointing fundraising by the “Big 3” Republican committees. The New Jersey  Republican State Committee, for example, was only able to raise $889,258 in the first three (3) quarters of 2021. While Ciattarelli provided legislative, county, and local candidates with strong down ballot support, the NJ GOP wasn’t able (in many cases) to provide last minute mailings or door knockers to county and/or local organizations where GOP candidates were gaining but sorely needed help in driving up GOP turn-out. Given Ciattarelli’s late surge, Republican county and local candidates who narrowly lost may have prevailed—if financial resources were timely provided to them.

Limits to the ‘Red wave?’: The ‘red wave’ that ran through Bergen and Passaic counties did not extend to Union County. Unfortunately for Ciattarelli, Union County underperformed. How badly? Consider this: in 1997 Christie Whitman lost Union County by 1,000 votes, Chris Christie lost Union in 2009 by 12,000 votes. This year (in the midst of a ‘red wave’) Murphy beat Ciattarelli by more than 32,000 votes, garnering Ciattarelli just 37.5% of the county vote.

School Boards: Up and down the state, school boards elections increased GOP enthusiasm and helped drive up turnout in Republican areas, such as in LD 39 and 40 and in Wayne. “Kitchen table” issues, such as concerns with public school curriculum, mask and vaccine mandates, became the topic of  conversations at playgrounds, fields, and coffee shops throughout New Jersey. Many of these school activists won BOE seats and will likely form the nucleus of the Republican bench for future county and legislative elections.

Mike Testa: Mike Testa was a big winner on Election Day. By turning South Jersey red and extending his reach up the coast, Sen. Testa will likely control the tone and substance of the state legislative agenda. Charismatic and cerebral, Sen. Testa’s more confrontational style will likely blunt and prevent Gov. Murphy from implementing a second term progressive agenda.

Jack Ciattarelli ran a masterful campaign and landed heavy body blows to Gov. Murphy (and state Democrats.) His campaign inspired a new generation of Republican activists, energized the Republican base and brought Independents and suburban women back into the Republican fold. Without Ciattarelli at the top of the ticket, the immediate challenge for county and state GOP leaders is finding ways to carry the ‘red wave’ into the 2022 elections and beyond.