CD11 Flashpoint: Sherrill Versus Webber

Now it begins for real.

The “it” is the race to replace the retiring Rodney P. Frelinghuysen in New Jersey’s 11th District. This race between Republican Jay Webber and Democrat Mikie Sherrill already seems to be taking on epic proportions with both parties calling it and the overall midterm election the most important in a generation.

You can’t take all of that seriously. Some in politics always say that the next election is the most important ever.

But hyperbole aside, there is real significance here.

This is an open congressional seat in what has been a very safe Republican district. Not anymore.

Changing demographics, slight redistricting and emotional opposition on the left to Donald Trump is fueling Democratic optimism. If Democrats are going to take control of the House, they need to flip well-educated, suburban districts like NJ-11.

The total number of Democratic votes cast in the district on Tuesday was about 45,000. That was about 3,000 more than the total number of votes cast by Republicans. Both parties had five-person contested primaries.

So, what does this mean?

At the Webber election night party in Parsippany, one GOP consultant said it means nothing at all, explaining that the primary and general election voters are very different animals.

Fair point.

Others were not so sure. One Republican noted with some measure of alarm that there were more Democrats casting primary ballots than Republicans in Chatham. Yes, Chatham, an affluent and traditional Republican enclave in southeast Morris County.

If nothing else, more Democratic votes being cast in a district where the GOP has more registered voters has to mean something about interest.

Webber already was thinking about the general election before the primary ended. At a campaign event last Sunday in Rockaway Township, he said that the general election starts at 8:01 p.m. Tuesday.

He was off by about two hours or so. For Webber, it began about 10:20 p.m. when he claimed victory.

Opposition research can do fascinating things, but on the surface Sherrill has a splendid resume – Naval Academy graduate, a helicopter pilot in the Navy and a job with the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

On Tuesday night, Webber gave a hint where his campaign may be going.

He quickly linked Sherrill with both Gov. Murphy and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi.

“If you think Phil Murphy is going to rob you blind this month (he’s talking about the state budget deadline), just think what Mikie Sherrill and Nancy Pelosi will do to us if they get their hands on the wheels of power,” he said.

The line got the predictable applause, but it really makes no sense.

It is true that Murphy has proposed increasing the sales tax to 7 percent and raising income tax rates on those earning more than a million dollars a year from 8.97 to 10.75 percent. People can decide themselves if this amounts to robbery. More importantly, with Democrats in the Legislature balking at Murphy’s tax plan, there is no guarantee it will happen.

As for Pelosi, she is a popular GOP villain, but Sherrill has said she would not support Pelosi for speaker if she wins and if Democrats win control of the House.

Webber’s guilt by association game may be more successful when we come to Sen. Bob Menendez, who was recently admonished by his peers on both sides of the aisle.

He said of Sherrill, “she conveniently looks the other way when her running-mate, Bob Menendez, is sanctioned by the United States Senate.”

OK. Ignore the running-mate line. Sherrill and Menendez are not running mates. It’s not as if they’re both seeking town council seats or running for president and vice president.

Webber’s real point is that the ethically-challenged Menendez, who will be atop the Democratic ballot this fall, can be a problem for Sherrill, simply by association.

It will be curious to see how she reacts. Clearly, her best approach would be to distance herself from Menendez as much as possible and state publicly that the senator’s recent actions are an embarrassment to the party and to New Jersey. But will that happen?

Curiously, in Webber’s speech Tuesday night, he mentioned Menendez, Murphy and Pelosi, but not the president of the United States.

This hardly seemed a coincidence and brings us to a central Sherrill theme.

And that is, if you want to stop Donald Trump, you don’t want Jay Webber.

A brief Sherrill statement Tuesday night touched on health care and infrastructure, but took a direct swipe at a federal tax reform bill that capped the state and local tax deduction at $10,000, effectively raising taxes on many state residents.

This can put Webber in an awkward position. It’s true that the president’s approval ratings in New Jersey aren’t very good, but they’re much better among the hard-core Republicans whose support Webber needs. Webber may have some cover here considering that all GOP House members from New Jersey except one opposed the tax bill.

Still, does Webber say simply that Trump’s tax bill is bad for District 11?  It’s hard to see Webber saying any tax cut is bad, despite the ramifications.

Does Sherrill try to run away from Menendez?

The race has just begun and questions are already out there.

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