Few give Newark Central Ward Councilwoman Gayle Chaneyfield Jenkins a chance in her May 8th citywide race against incumbent Mayor Ras Baraka.

Upsets have characterized several Newark elections over the years, notably in 1954, when Leo P. Carlin (pictured, above, at the reins of a campaign stagecoach), a Teamsters Union President, beat incumbent Mayor Ralph A. Villani; and in 1962, when former U.S. Rep. Hugh Addonizio defeated Carlin.

But consider this: going back to 1970 and the campaign of Ken Gibson, no mayoral candidate has won without the support of the North Ward Organization run by Steve Adubato, Sr. – with just one exception.

The North Ward Organization backed Gibson in 1970 and his reelection bids up to 1986, when the organization backed Sharpe James. The North Ward then backed James all the way up to 2006, when the organization went with Cory Booker (and James opted not to run for reelection).

The one time that Adubato’s organization didn’t back the winner was in 2014, when it opted to go with Shavar Jeffries over Baraka, then a South Ward Councilman.

Baraka gutted out a 24,358 to 20,593 win four years ago, and this year, has the North Ward Organization on his side, which insiders say makes a Chaneyfield Jenkins victory that much more improbable.

Chaneyfield Jenkins’ backers acknowledge that they need the North to win, and point to that 2002 loss by Booker as evidence of hope. Although Booker – another Central Ward representative – lost citywide that year, he beat James in the North, even with the machine behind the incumbent mayor. It was that performance that prompted the organization to zigzag from James in time for the next election, which Booker won.

The same principle dictates citywide politics in Newark: three beats two.

Chaneyfield Jenkins needs the Central and East and then a fighting Booker-sized shot in the North.

Maybe that’s why she enlisted the aid of Booker campaign Manager (and former COS) Pablo Fonseca to run her campaign.

But the North Ward organization has built-in mechanisms that clearly favor Baraka, including the presence of North Ward Councilman Anibal Ramos on his ticket.