Since the 2018 Congressional midterm elections, most New Jersey based political pundits have focused on the 2020 Presidential campaign prospects of New Jersey Democratic US Senator Cory Booker.  They may well be overlooking an even greater likelihood that former Republican Governor Chris Christie will emerge from the demise of the presidential administration of Donald Trump to become the 2020 Republican presidential nominee.

The Congressional testimony of former Trump Organization fixer Michael Cohen last week demonstrated most graphically the increasing survival perils for the Trump administration.  All this has arisen from the investigation of the Trump Organization by the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York (SDNY).  I have said continuously over the past year, in both my columns and television appearances, that the SDNY investigation constitutes a greater legal danger to Trump than the probe of Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

I have also been unwavering in my prognostication that an SDNY indictment of Trump family members and/or former associates, combined with possible seizure of Trump Organization assets, will compel The Donald to make a deal for his departure from the Oval Office. Such an agreement would enable him to save both his family members and his wealth.

This will create an ideal opportunity for Christie, with his impeccable law enforcement credentials as former US Attorney for the District of New Jersey and his acceptability to the Trump base, to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of the Trump administration and achieve victory over Vice President Mike Pence in the 2020 GOP presidential sweepstakes.  He is not hampered by the “kook” factor, which shadows Mike Pence.

On the Democratic side, Cory Booker, while conducting a respectable campaign is confronted by political demographics that decisively favor the emerging 2020 Democratic presidential frontrunner, California Democratic US Senator Kamala Harris.  These demographics are three-fold: Identity demographics, ideological demographics, and geographic demographics.  Plus, if former Vice President Joe Biden enters the 2020 Democratic presidential contest, he has the potential to attract the lion’s share of centrist Democratic primary voters that would normally lean in Booker’s direction.

Since the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential race, it had been correctly anticipated by political journalists throughout the nation that Cory Booker would be a formidable contender for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.  By contrast, at the beginning of the Trump administration, the notion of a Chris Christie presidential comeback appeared to be completely absurd.

Christie had left office as New Jersey Governor in January, 2018 with atrocious approval ratings and under severe criticism by columnists like myself.  I opined that he was leaving behind a tarnished legacy due to Bridgegate and his consistent practice as governor of subordinating the needs of the state to his presidential aspirations.

Chris Christie, however, is a man of irrepressible ambition.  I have absolutely no doubt that he is seeking the 2020 GOP presidential nomination, and in the process, making the greatest comeback since his (and my) beloved New York Mets went from ninth place in 1968 to World Champions in 1969.

Like the 1968 Mets, Christie was a model of ineptitude as a presidential candidate in 2016.  He was running as a second term governor of New Jersey, and his gubernatorial record, particularly Bridgegate, was a serious vulnerability for him.

In 2019, Chris Christie is not seeking the presidency as a former New Jersey governor but rather as the former US Attorney for the District of New Jersey.  I can say without hyperbole that Chris Christie was the greatest US Attorney for the District of New Jersey in my lifetime, even greater than Herbert Stern in the 1970s.  He will indeed go down in history as the Thomas E. Dewey of New Jersey.  His ubiquitous presence on television political talk shows has enabled him to emerge as the national GOP journalistic political superstar of the Trump scandals.

Meanwhile, Cory Booker appears to be foundering in his attempts to develop a compelling message to overcome the daunting challenge of the three demographic obstacles described above.

The identity demographic manifests itself in the overwhelming preference of Democratic women for a woman presidential nominee in the wake of the highly disappointing Hillary Clinton defeat in 2016.  That is a major factor benefitting Kamala Harris, who is both a woman and of African-American descent.

The ideological demographic is the need for a Democratic candidate to merge the general pragmatic characteristic of mainstream Democratic candidates with the highly motivational aspirational programmatic appeal of the Progressive Democrats.  Thus far, only Kamala Harris has been able to do this.

The geographic demographic imperative is the rescheduling of the California presidential primary from its usual June date to Super Tuesday, March 3. 2020.  The Texas primary is also scheduled on that date, and a western candidate like Kamala Harris will have an excellent chance of establishing a substantial front runner lead if she wins both primaries.  Her outlook in Texas will be affected substantially if favorite son Beto O’Rourke runs.

There is a paradox here in that in terms of technique, Cory Booker is the best orator of either party in the race.  In terms of the effectiveness of the message, however, Kamala Harris leads him.  And she does not appear to have been hurt by the controversy over her earlier expressed criticism of the Knights of Columbus.

Don’t get me wrong – there is plenty of time for Booker to overcome Kamala Harris’s early advantages. Not one vote has been cast yet.  It just may be, however, that strange as it seems, Chris Christie may be more likely than Cory Booker to receive his party’s presidential nomination in 2020.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman.