Christine Blasey Ford has now come forward with most serious allegations of sexual assault on the part of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh in the early 1980s.  Her credibility is bolstered by her passing a polygraph test, administered by a former FBI agent.  Further corroboration of the emotional damage resulting from the alleged assault is provided by the couples therapist who worked with her and her husband.

Ford is a college clinical psychology professor of high reputation.  Her allegations cannot be summarily dismissed as those of a vengeful or meretricious woman.

I originally supported the Kavanaugh nomination, and I am not saying at this point that President Trump should withdraw the Kavanaugh nomination.  It is absolutely essential, however, that any vote on this nomination should be delayed by Senate Judiciary Chair Charles Grassley in order that 1) the FBI may perform further investigation; and 2) both Ford and Kavanaugh should be given the opportunity to testify on these allegations as part of the Committee hearings.

The allegations against Brett Kavanaugh are far more serious than those against Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas nearly 30 years ago.  Anita Hill accused Thomas of boorish, sexist, insensitive behavior, but nothing nearly as serious as sexual assault.  In my view, it would be unconscionable for Grassley not to delay the vote.

I am not confident, however, that Grassley will have the nomination vote postponed.  Republican Senators see the Kavanaugh hearings as the last chance for the confirmation of a Constitutional strict constructionist justice who will succeed “swing vote” Justice Anthony Kennedy, resulting in a 5-4 conservative majority on the High Court.  If Kavanaugh is not confirmed and the Democrats win control of the US Senate in the midterm November elections, the opportunity for a conservative court will be lost.

So it is likely that Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell will press forward with the nomination and refuse any delay.  He will probably succeed in obtaining confirmation.  The consequences of refusing to delay the vote will have a huge catastrophic impact on the Republican Party, both in the November midterm election and for years to come.

Nationally, the Republicans have a huge and growing gender gap, resulting from the perception, accurate in my view, that Donald Trump is a misogynist.  A refusal by McConnell to delay the Kavanaugh vote in order to enable Ms. Ford to testify will result in the perception that the entire Republican Party Senate Leadership, not just President Donald Trump, is anti-women.

The resulting explosion in the gender gap will doom the GOP not only in the midterm House of Representatives races but also in the Senate contests.  It is a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will capture control of the House.  The certain explosion in the gender gap will result in the Democrats winning a governing majority in the Senate as well.

At present, the Republicans have 51 Senate seats and the Democrats have 49.  Regardless of the Kavanaugh controversy, the Republicans are likely to unseat incumbent Democrat North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp.  Due to the exploding gender gap from the Kavanaugh controversy, the Democrats will not lose another incumbent seat, including Florida, where Bill Nelson faces a well-financed challenge from Republican Governor Rick Scott.  The exploding gender gap will enable the Democrats to pick up seats in two states where they already have a lead, Nevada and Arizona, and probably in Tennessee as well.  This will give the Democrats a controlling majority of 51 seats.  And the explosion in the gender gap will significantly increase the chances of Democrat Beto O’Rourke scoring an upset victory over Republican incumbent Ted Cruz in Texas.

There will also be a serious impact on the credibility of two GOP Senators, Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski if they fail to oppose McConnell’s rush to judgment on the Kavanaugh nomination.  They have had the stature and image of being the Republican protectors of the rights and dignity of women.  If they fail to resist McConnell’s hardball tactics, their prestige in this regard will be severely damaged.

The shock waves of the Kavanaugh controversy extend to the New Jersey US Senate race as well.

I have written disparagingly about Republican Bob Hugin’s chances to upset incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez, given Hugin’s major deficiencies as a Senate candidate, including 1) his close past relationships with Donald Trump and Chris Christie; 2) as CEO of Celgene, his prevention of competition from generic drug manufacturers, which enabled his company to keep its prices artificially high; and 3) as an alumnus in his thirties, his opposition to the admission of women to the Princeton University Tiger Inn eating club.

Nevertheless, I felt that Hugin did the politically sagacious act, unusual for him, in withholding initially his support of the Kavanaugh nomination, pending developments at the confirmation hearing.  He must now take a position, however, on Mitch McConnell’s refusal to delay the nomination vote.

Donald Trump has accurately described the fanaticism of his supporters by his statement that they would stick with him, even if they saw him shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue.  If he opposes McConnell on the delay, Hugin will incur a massive departure of Trump supporters to the independent Senate candidacy of Murray Sabrin.  If he supports McConnell, he will hemorrhage whatever women supporters he still has to the Menendez campaign. Either alternative further dooms the Hugin candidacy.

You can now expect Menendez to shift the focus of his campaign away from his anti-Hugin commercials on his activities at Celgene to 1) an attack on Hugin’s position on women’s issues, most notably his opposition to the admission of women to the Princeton Tiger Eating Club; and 2) an attack on the GOP in general for its position on the Kavanaugh nomination.

In the end, McConnell is likely to obtain confirmation of Kavanaugh.  It will, however, be a Pyrrhic victory. The price to be paid by the Republican Party for Kavanaugh’s nomination will be the loss of the Senate to the Democrats in the 2018 midterm election and an unprecedented gender gap that will have a destructive impact on the future GOP election prospects in New Jersey and elsewhere.

Prior to the latest Kavanaugh controversy, the leading underlying national campaign issue was whether the conduct in office of Donald Trump merits impeachment.  Due now to the Kavanaugh controversy, the Trump issue has been joined in equal significance by the question of the sensitivity of the Republican Party to issues affecting women.  Both these issues relate to the very soul of America.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman.