As national Democrats seek to exploit the perceived missteps of President Donald J. Trump in search of 24 House seat pickups and a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, most insiders in both parties see CD2 as a D pick up, which would tilt Dems’ New Jersey congressional delegation advantage to 8-4.

The question is whether they can get more gains out of New Jersey.

Riding anti-Trump sentiment, Democrats hold a seven-point lead (48-41%) over Republicans in generic House balloting here, according to this Monmouth University Poll.

But a television ad released today by the campaign of incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) that contains at least one reference to the name of his Republican challenger, indicates a close statewide race, according to most insiders who saw the ad.

Here’s how the battlegrounds look RIGHT NOW:

CD2

Veteran U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-2) cried uncle, opting out of a reelection run and setting up what

insiders interpreted as a torch passing to state Senator Jeff Van Drew (D-1), a Democrat used to winning in what before his time was a Republican District.

No-name Republicans jumped into a cluttered field, among them Hirsh Singh, envisioned by establishment players as the eventual winner of the primary and likely loser in a match-up with Van Drew.

In the chopped-up field, movement conservative Seth Grossman, an attorney from Atlantic City, won the primary and promptly stuck his foot in his mouth, calling diversity “a bunch of crap.” Van Drew backers exulted, anticipating an easy time of it for the cakewalk Democratic Primary winner against the Steve Lonegan of the South.

So far, Van Drew has raised over $1 million and has $675K cash on hand, while Grossman raised $87K and has $56.3 cash on hand.

The establishment of both parties seems to anticipate a Van Drew win, and a real fight for Van Drew’s seat. Cumberland GOP Chairman Michael Testa wants in, and so does Victoria Lods, former chief of staff to former state Senator Nick Asselta (R-1), the man Van Drew knocked off in 2007 to claim his senate seat. Assemblyman Bob Andrzejczak (D-1) appears to be Van Drew’s handpicked successor to run for the Democrats – if Van Drew snags the congressional seat.

That, again, looks likely.

CD3

These were supposed to be a couple of big years for incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-3), who rolled out his first town hall last year to the tortured, messianic strains of U2’s “In the Name of Love,” just before the crowd lumped him with Trump and flared anger.

MacArthur looked – at least to former Governor Chris Christie and others in the NJ GOP establishment – like the statewide future, and indeed the multi-millionaire self funder appeared eager to lay the groundwork as that sensible Republican alternative to emergent limousine lib Phil Murphy.

But then Trump morphed horrifically, and an ex-Obama official named  Andy Kim won the Democratic

Primary with ease.

Now, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll, Kim is running within striking distance of  MacArthur. The Cook Report calls the race a toss-up.

Suddenly, MacArthur was on districtwide defense instead of statewide offense.

It’s still an arduous course for the challenger.

Trump did well in Burlington and Ocean in 2016, and MacArthur, of course, retains deep pockets.

So far, Kim raised more than $2.1 million and has $1.7 million COH.

MacArthur raked $2.4 million and – at the moment – has a million on hand.

CD4

The general election sleeper district features retired Navy officer Josh Welle against incumbent U.S. Rep. Chris Smith (R-4).

Although gnawed on for having been around too long (he first won the seat in 1980!) Smith has beaten challengers up in the 4th ever since, listing, among others, Mercer County Executive Brian Hughes among his victims. He mowed down historian Josh Zeitz with Obama wind at Zeitz’s back in 2008.

A lowkey challenger intent on emphasizing his military background and noting Smith’s long stretches of absenteeism from the district, Welle is convinced this year’s different.

So far, the Congressman has $814K raised and has $754K COH.

Welle raised $639K and has $327K COH.

Here’s a Welle interview with Fox’s Neil Cavuto from last week:

CD5

After knocking off incumbent Scott Garrett in 2016, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-5) set about to cast

as a heavily funded bipartisan congressman.

The Cook Report lists the race as “likely Gottheimer.”

On fire on the fundraising front, Gottheimer raised $5.2 million and has $4.5 million COH, compared to $432K raised by Republican challenger John McCann, who has $6,492 cash on hand.

A bloody primary left the GOP in tatters, even as Gottheimer routinely burnishes his efforts to middle of the road it along with CD7 colleague U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance. On a morning earlier this year in a local shorthanded diner,

the Congressman noticed a flailing waitress trying to placate customers, grabbed a free coffee pot, and began making the rounds as a volunteer server.

He’ll be tough to beat in this environment, particularly with his money in that district, where the incumbent Democrat has the advantages of Trump’s underfunding of the Gateway Tunnel and eliminating state and local property tax deductions.

CD7

After tilting rightward during the Obama era, U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance (R-7) tacked back to the center in the Trump years , just in time to receive a challenge from former Assistant Secretary of State Tom Malinowski.

The Cook Report calls the contest a toss-up.

They both went negative early, with Lance trying to paint his opponent – a former lobbyist for Human

Rights Watch – as a Washington insider, and Malinowski slapping the Republican as a mostly silent GOP foot soldier and political chameleon.

Republicans like to point out that Kim Guadagno won the 7th District by 14 points last year even as she went down hard statewide, while Democrats point to key trends in their favor, including a takedown of the Republican establishment in Westfield of all places.

This is one that will go from brutal to bloody awful, if it hasn’t already.

A sharp-elbowed fundraiser, Malinowski has raked $2.3 million and now has around $1.6 million cash on hand, beating Lance in the cash department. The Congressman, for his part, has raised $1.5 million and has about $1.2 million COH.

The fact that Lance went negative as fast as he did (see below) causes politics watchers to suspect that this race is close, with the incumbent on his heels a little early.

CD11

The retirement of U.S. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11) on the heels of the veteran Congressman’s attempt to bully a bank employee roiled the #Me2 Movement, atmospherics that seemed to favor the fast-cohering candidacy of former Sea King helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill.

Republicans threw a primary together, with the establishment wing of the party appearing to fear the general election candidacy – in this particular environment – of conservative Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-26).

Long the heir apparent, the Morris-based Webber drained

resources in order to blank his Republican Primary opponents, and now faces the sensitive work of reconstructing party relations in Essex and  Passaic counties.

The Cook Report leans the race to Sherrill, who’s stacking money relentlessly amid northern Democrats who see her – much the same way Republicans see MacArthur – as a future statewide star.

Sherrill received $4.2 million and has $3 million in the bank, compared to $574K raised and $172K COH for Webber.

The Democrat’s allies hit Webber early on his vote against equal pay for equal work in the legislature, an attack the Republican candidate said strayed too close to home.