Paul DeGroot is winning.

So says his campaign.

The Republican candidate in CD-11 says he has a 10-point lead (51-41) over Democrat Mikie Sherrill “among the most informed voters.”

That sounds pretty good.

However, as many have discovered – much to their dismay at times – the uninformed vote as well. More on that later.

One aspect of the poll highlighted by the DeGroot campaign is a finding that “voters are overwhelmingly angry with leadership in Washington.” It continues by saying that 78 percent of voters in the district think the country is “on the wrong track.”

As for Sherrill, the poll says her reelection is a “house of cards.” It adds, “Today, only 35 percent of voters” think she deserves reelection and that 32 percent want someone new. The poll also says that 46 percent of respondents – including a majority of unaffiliated voters –  want someone in Congress to serve as a check and balance to President Biden and Speaker Pelosi.

The poll was done by Moore Information Group, which according to its website, has worked for more than a hundred Republican candidates and organizations. Partisan polls should always be taken with a great deal of caution and this one is no exception.

The poll was taken between July 7 and 10. That was only a month ago, but some things have changed.

Gas prices, a big Republican issue this cycle, are still high, but have been dropping every day. The president and congressional Democrats have also had some genuine legislative achievements this summer – a bill to aid the nation’s microchip industry and a more recent one to combat climate change and reduce drug prices by allowing Medicare to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies.

Moreover, last week’s vote in Kansas showed how abortion rights may motivate voters this fall in the Democrats’ favor.

Whether these occurrences will impact future polling remains to be seen.

As for the line about “informed voters,” the poll says DeGroot’s 10-point lead is among voters “who are aware of both candidates.”

Many of those aware of both candidates are probably going to be Republicans, so they’re going to like DeGroot. Staunch Democrats who are going to vote that way probably don’t care, or even know, who the Republican candidate is. The new congressional map gives Democrats about a 60,000 advantage among registered voters.

Nonetheless, DeGroot is upbeat about the poll, although the sampling did acknowledge a big Sherrill name recognition advantage.

“All in all, these survey results show DeGroot is well-positioned to unseat an incumbent in a district where the vast majority of voters are upset about the direction the country is headed,” his campaign said.
Team Sherrill is not impressed.

Said Campaign Manager Jackie Burns:

“We knew Paul DeGroot was an election denier and anti-choice; now we see he’s anti-math. His poll is a joke but his extreme anti-women positions are nothing to laugh about — they are very real and a danger to New Jersey.”