The Hispanic shift to the right in the 2024 election, compared to 2020 when Joe Biden overwhelmingly had their support, should worry every Democratic chair in presumably blue New Jersey as well as their neighbors in culturally diverse New York City and cities in eastern Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania was, of course, the key to the 2024 election, a critical swing state which, in the end, turned out for former President Donald Trump. Within all these metropolitan hubs, however, there has been a notable growth of support from Latino voters, men specifically, compared to previous elections. Democrats have been losing ground with a key demographic.

In 2004, President George W. Bush from Texas won 44% of the Latino vote nationwide in his re-election bid against Senator John Kerry. Latinos shifted back toward the Democratic Party thereafter. In 2008, Barack Obama won 67% of the Latino vote, expanding that to 71% in 2012. Hillary Clinton won 65% in 2016, and Joe Biden got 66% of Hispanic voters in 2020. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign expected to carry a sizeable Latino vote but fell far short of previous election years. Donald Trump’s return for a second term was partially due to an increase of support in traditional Democratic strongholds and, even more so, Democratic dissatisfaction with Harris. In short, Trump made some gains with new demographics, and Democrats stayed home. In fact, Trump broke Bush’s record, getting 45% of the Latino vote for his third electoral campaign.

New Jersey’s Neighbors – Cities Stay Democratic, but Hispanic Dissatisfaction Grows

New York

According to the unofficial results from the State of New York, Harris/Walz took 71.25% while Trump/Vance took 26.69% in the Bronx. King’s County (Brooklyn) saw Harris/Walz take 69.42% to Trump/Vance’s 27.60%. New York County (Manhattan) saw the highest Democratic turn out with 80.14% to Republicans’ 17.14%. Queens delivered 60.23% to Harris and 36.96% to Trump. Richmond County (Staten Island) was the only one of the Five Boroughs to go to Trump, with 64.01% to Harris’ 33.93%.

Looking back to four years ago, an analysis by The Gotham Gazette on December 4, 2020 said: “The results show that, in a year with significantly more ballots cast and massive changes in party alignments, the Democratic Party made barely any gains in presidential turnout, while the smaller, more progressive Working Families Party made huge strides as it successfully fought to keep its ballot line in New York. Republican President Donald Trump, while deeply unpopular overall in his home city, actually increased his vote share from 2016, particularly from parts of the Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens.”

Trump saw a shift of approximately 9.5 points in heavily-Hispanic counties in New York. But New York still delivered, reliably, for Harris.

Pennsylvania

Philadelphia was a crucial battleground for both campaigns, especially among Hispanics, but other Hispanic strongholds in Pennsylvania dipped redder and should not be overlooked as indicators of broader trends. Allentown, PA, is in Lehigh County, and the city is home to 126,000, according to the 2020 Census. Just over 68,000 of the county’s 97,000 Hispanic residents live in Allentown. Allentown delivered for Harris with districts coming in at their lowest at 51% and their highest into the low 70%s.

Lehigh County as a whole reported, unofficially, 72.5% voter turnout with 50.62% going to Harris and 48.18% to Trump. Stein of the Greens took 0.75% and Oliver of the Libertarians took 0.45% for a total of 1.2%–notable when the Democratic/Republican races are so tight.

Reading, PA, is the most Latino municipality in the Commonwealth, with a 67% Hispanic population. The Trump campaign rallied there at the Santander Arena and made inroads within that community, even weathering the Puerto Rico “floating island of garbage” remark made at his Madison Square Garden rally.

Passaic Shifts Hardest Among New Jersey Counties

Nestled between New York and Pennsylvania, each with their own narratives on Latino shifts toward Trump, is, of course, New Jersey. In Passaic County, there was a curious electoral phenomenon to bring cautious satisfaction for the sweaty-palmed Democratic establishment, even though their support plummeted across the board with rank-and-file voters—many of them critical Hispanic residents.

The Associated Press reported a 20-point shift to the right for Passaic County, flipping it from blue to red among its votes cast. Passaic County saw the biggest shift of any New Jersey county, in fact, with Hudson coming in second with an 18-point shift. The urban centers of Paterson, Clifton, and Passaic are home to large Hispanic populations and these cities were expected to carry the county for Democrats. “We’re getting killed in the suburbs,” Passaic County Chairman John Currie said at a Paterson campaign event November 1, urging his party faithful to mobilize voters and those who were still sitting on mail-in ballots not yet cast. Curiously enough, Passaic Democrats actually recaptured the once-solidly blue county-level administration with the victory of challenger Rodney De Vore, an African-American. This should be a point of pride for Chairman Currie who managed to expand and cement Democratic control over the freeholders—now commissioners—during his tenure as county chair. Totowa resident Nicolino Gallo, the only Republican commissioner and an Italian immigrant who came to the US at the age of 5 with his family, lost the seat he had won in 2022. De Vore’s victory was a close one, however. He ran with incumbent commissioners Cassandra Lazzara and John Bartlett, beating out Gallo by 1,707 votes.

While Democratic turnout across the board was depressed, Passaic County Democrats had fought a vicious sheriff’s primary between former sheriff and Paterson Public Safety Director Jerry Speziale and Thomas Adamo, backed by Currie. In the end, Adamo won. In the general election, Adamo then defeated Marla Saracino with a comfortable 54%.

As of the November 6 unofficial results, Passaic County went 49.97% to Trump, 46.56% to Harris, 2.1% to Jill Stein, 0.55% to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and 0.19% to Chase Oliver. Just over 191,000 of Passaic County residents voted for president and a notably lower 176,000 voted for their senator (Andy Kim getting 48.87%, Curtis Bashaw 47.04%, and Christina Khalil 2.32%).

North Haledon’s Nellie Pou, who will be New Jersey’s first Latina member of Congress and successor to the late Congressman Bill Pascrell, only managed to get a thin plurality in CD-9. She won her largest portion in her home county of Passaic with 54.95% but only 50.6% over the district. Pou over-performed Harris in Passaic County by 8.39 points, while Harris eked out an unimpressive 51.8% across the reliably blue Garden State as a whole. Republican Billy Prempeh took 50.5% of the Bergen County share of CD-9 while Pou captured 52.0% of the Hudson County portion.

The message appears similar across the board among hard-working Latino communities in the Philadelphia-North Jersey-Bronx Corridor: economic worries and concerns about inflation topped all other priorities. Kamala Harris was unable to provide a convincing message that she could deliver on these basic issues. Political scientists, talking heads, and family members will be discussing the “what-ifs” for a long time as to why this was the case, but it may stem in large part from the fact that as Vice President, she was unable to distance herself from the Biden Administration which voters blame for high prices in shops and at grocery stores. Concerns about Trump’s rhetoric and plans for massive deportations of illegal or undocumented migrants were thought by the Harris campaign to play to their advantage, but the metrics indicate this is clearly not the case to the extent they perceived. Trump’s overall numbers did not significantly increase, but many Democratic voters stayed home, ultimately costing her the election.

While Passaic County proved to be dissatisfied with Kamala Harris, and profoundly lukewarm for down-ballot Democrats, they remained. Passaic County Democratic leaders, therefore, may consider themselves deeply chastened by the electorate, but Democratic voters have not yet fully abandoned the ship. It will be critical for Democratic leaders in New Jersey to reconnect with working-class people on bread-and-butter topics—and communicate that message effectively, a perpetual failing of the Democratic party compared to their Republican counterparts—if they wish to stem the apathy within their own ranks.