Donald Trump’s unexpected success was the major story of the New Jersey 2024 elections.

Trump garnered 46% of the statewide vote in New Jersey, significantly improving on his 2020 performance and representing the best showing by a Republican presidential candidate since 1992. He won 12 of the state’s 21 counties, including the historically Democratic stronghold of Passaic County. These gains came at the expense of Democrats, highlighting vulnerabilities within their “Blue Wall.”

Did Trump and the NJ GOP finally break through the Blue Wall?

New Jersey’s Blue Wall encompasses Essex, Hudson, Union, Passaic, and Bergen counties. It has historically played a vital role in securing Democratic victories in statewide, legislative, and county elections. This region is home to the state’s most powerful Democratic County organizations, consistently delivering the pluralities necessary to counterbalance Republican strength in other areas, such as Ocean and Monmouth counties.

The Blue Wall is the place where statewide elections are decided.

After all, state Democrats have relied on the Blue Wall for statewide, state legislative, and county victories. For instance, in the 2020 New Jersey presidential election, Joe Biden secured a plurality of 494,141 votes in the five key counties, which accounted for nearly 70% of his overall margin statewide. In 2021, Governor Phil Murphy won re-election with a plurality of 207,695 votes from the Blue Wall, narrowly defeating Republican Jack Ciattarelli by just 84,000 votes statewide.

However, in 2024, something changed, and cracks appeared in the Blue Wall.

Trump’s success extended beyond Passaic County. He lost Hudson County by about 64,000 votes (much less than Joe Biden’s 2020 winning margin of 155,754) and demonstrated significant strength in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Secaucus, North Bergen, and Union City. Trump won the solidly Democratic Congressional District 9, which comprises nine towns in Passaic County, 24 in Bergen County, and two (including Secaucus) in Hudson County, and he came within 1% of winning Congressional District 5. Trump also performed notably well among working-class and minority voters in historically Democratic towns in Bergen County, where he won Fairview, Lodi, and Wood-Ridge, the home of State Senator Paul Sarlo.

Trump’s support in the heart of the Blue Wall sent shockwaves through the political landscape. However, his popularity did not necessarily translate into success for down-ballot candidates in North Jersey. Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Andy Kim defeated Republican challenger Curtis Bashaw statewide, winning 53.5% to 44% (but Kim won by 12% in Blue Wall counties.)  Representative Josh Gottheimer won reelection with 54.6% of the vote (although Trump lost CD-5 by 1%). State Senator Nellie Pou narrowly defeated GOP challenger Billy Prempeh by about 12,000 votes despite Trump winning in CD-9. Even in towns like Paul Sarlo’s Wood-Ridge, where Trump won handily, Democrat municipal candidates nevertheless won decisively.

The Blue Wall was battered but resilient.

Republican gains in traditionally Democratic towns may indicate broader trends in voter behavior. Between 2020 and 2024, Republican voter registrations in New Jersey increased by 12.8%, adding 184,301 new voters. In contrast, Democratic registrations grew by only 0.4%, which amounted to just 11,000 new voters. The consequences of these shifts became clear when Kamala Harris won the state in 2024, yet she received 500,000 fewer votes than Joe Biden did in 2020.

It’s unclear why Blue Wall voters supported Trump while backing down-ballot Democrats.

Thus, the 2024 election resulted in mixed outcomes for both parties. The GOP made significant gains in urban areas and among non-traditional Republican voters, including Latino communities, union households, Jewish voters, and those under 30. However, these gains only sometimes led to electoral victories.

As we approach the 2025 gubernatorial and 2026 congressional elections, here are some of the key stories behind the 2024 election and the challenges and opportunities both parties will face, which will influence these upcoming elections.

Passaic County

Passaic County saw a historic turnaround in this election, as Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since 1992. This was not an easy feat, considering that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 to 1.

The trend seems to favor the GOP.  In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Passaic by 30,455 votes (57% to 41%). In 2021, Phil Murphy defeated Jack Ciattarelli in Passaic by a reduced margin of 17,572 votes.

One reason for Trump’s success was his attracting non-traditional Republican voters. For instance, in Paterson, where approximately 62.5% of the population identifies as Hispanic or Latino and around 24% as Black or African American, Trump lost the city by only 11,000 votes. Additionally, he flipped Clifton, which has a 39% Latino population and a growing Arab community, and he won in the predominantly Orthodox Jewish area of Passaic Park (Third Ward) by over 800 votes.

Long-time Totowa Mayor John Coiro wasn’t surprised by Trump’s performance, “I believe that even in traditionally Democratic Passaic County, Trump’s message resonated more than Kamala Harris’s. Many Latino voters, for example, prioritize family values, education, and border security—areas where Trump has an advantage.”

Perhaps these issues were a factor in the CD-9 election to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell, Jr., a beloved former Mayor of Paterson who served in Congress since 1996. Pascrell passed away in August. Eight days after his death, Democrats nominated State Senator Nellie Pou, a respected legislator with strong ties to Paterson and the Latino community, to replace Pascrell. The seat was considered a Safe House seat. Despite Trump carrying CD-9, Pou only narrowly beat Prempeh.

Bergen County: A Tale of Two Highways

Trump showed surprising strength in Bergen County, especially in its traditionally Democratic southern areas. Although Kamala Harris won the county, her margin was narrow—just 3% (232,660 to 217,096). This was a notable improvement for Trump compared to 2020 when Biden won Bergen with over 81,000 votes.

This year, the election in Bergen was a tale of two highways.

Route 17 Corridor– Trump performed exceptionally well along Route 17, which runs from North Arlington to Mahwah, a 25-mile stretch. He won 15 out of 20 towns along 17 and nine of the ten municipalities in the Bergen portion of Legislative District 36 (LD-36), including Wood-Ridge. Trump’s performance here enabled him to carry CD-9. To James Cassella, the former long-time Mayor of East Rutherford and life-long resident, Trump’s message resonated with LD-36 voters.  “Trump talked about issues that people understood and cared about, issues that affect them day in and day out, such as the high cost of food and gas and illegal immigration.  His proposal to eliminate the federal income tax on social security certainly helped attract senior voters. People must live and deal with these issues every day.   This past election, they finally had a candidate who was actually speaking the same language.”

With quality candidates, next year could be a prime opportunity for Republicans to win the LD-36 Assembly seats, particularly without popular Sen. Paul Sarlo on the ballot.

Route 4 Corridor– Unlike other areas in Bergen, the Blue Wall remained strong along the Route 4 corridor. Although Trump was unexpectedly competitive in some Democratic-leaning towns like Fair Lawn, he suffered significant defeats in Democratic strongholds like Englewood, Hackensack, and Teaneck. These three towns collectively delivered a 15,000-vote plurality for Harris. Home to some of the country’s most diverse populations, this stretch was critical in winning Bergen for the Democrats.

The positive news for Democrats is that this area appears to be strengthening, even as Republicans make gains in other regions.

Consider this:

– In 2021, Phil Murphy won Englewood, Hackensack, and Teaneck by more than 14,000 votes.

– In 2022, County Executive Joe Tedesco garnered a 15,000-vote plurality from the five larger Democratic towns along the Route 4 Corridor—Fort Lee, Englewood, Bergenfield, Hackensack, and Fair Lawn—making up almost half of his total 30,500 vote plurality.

– In 2024, Josh Gottheimer was reelected with 54.5% of the total vote. But Gottheimer romped in the six towns along the Route 4 Corridor—Fort Lee, Englewood, Bergenfield, Hackensack, Teaneck, and Fair Lawn—capturing nearly 70% of the total vote, amassing a plurality of 35,119 votes.

The Blue Wall was battered throughout Bergen but held firm along the Route 4 corridor.

The opportunities and challenges are clear: Republicans must achieve significant victories along Route 17 to counterbalance the Democratic stronghold along Route 4.

Union County

Kamala Harris won Union County with 60.9%, defeating Trump by more than 58,000 votes. This result made Union County the fourth strongest Harris county in the state, following Essex, Mercer, and Hudson.

Union County is a crucial part of the Blue Wall, consistently delivering significant Democratic majorities in statewide, congressional, and legislative elections. For instance, in 2021, Governor Murphy defeated Ciattarelli in Union County by over 32,000 votes. In 2022, Tom Kean, Jr. narrowly won his race in CD-7, defeating Rep. Tom Malinowski by just 9,000 votes, even though Kean lost in his home county of Union by 15,000 votes. This year, Kean again lost Union County by 15,000 votes but performed better in other parts of the district.

To counter significant losses in urban Linden and Elizabeth and the affluent suburbs of Westfield and Summit (home of NJ GOP Chair Bob Hugin), Union County Republicans are beginning to make small gains in the county’s other suburban areas, including Garwood, Kenilworth, Mountainside, and Clark. Interestingly, Trump received a higher vote in traditionally Democratic Linden and Elizabeth this year than the 34% he received in Westfield, home to State Senator and GOP gubernatorial candidate Jon Bramnick and Republican National Committeeman Bill Palatucci.

Perhaps Trump’s fate was sealed in Union County. After all, Bramnick and Palatucci (both allies of former Gov. Chris Christie) were two of the most vocal Trump critics. Palatucci refused to endorse Trump, and Bramnick stated in April that he would not vote for him. It must have been challenging for the Union County GOP to attract Trump votes when its leaders refused to support him.

Despite this, things may be looking up for Republicans here: Republican registrations increased by 9% from 2020 to 2024, while Democratic registrations have remained stagnant.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

The challenge for Republican candidates in the upcoming elections is connecting with non-traditional Republican voters and “Trump” voters without Trump on the ballot.

South Jersey serves as a successful model. In 2023, Senators Mike Testa (LD-1) and Vince Polistina (LD-2) won re-election in diverse districts (where Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans) by focusing on issues like taxes, immigration, and affordability while delivering targeted messaging to Latino voters and young families.

Cracks in the Blue Wall suggest that Republican candidates can make inroads in historically Democratic strongholds. However, turning these gains into victories will require strategic outreach to diverse communities.

Trump’s strong showing in CD-5 and CD-9 will likely prompt the US House Republican campaign arm, NRCC, to target these races in 2026. With few House seats available to gain, these contests may play a crucial role in determining control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms.

For state Democrats, Trump’s strong showing here may suggest a need to reinvigorate voter mobilization efforts (and enthusiasm for their candidates), especially in the urban and suburban areas that form the backbone of their support—and the Blue Wall.

Donald Trump revealed vulnerabilities in the Blue Wall. Republicans’ challenge in next year’s gubernatorial and state Assembly elections, however, is how to breach it without Trump on the ballot.