This month’s national poll included only those who indicate they are very likely to vote, previous polls included all registered voters. Registered voters were asked their voting intention and only very likely voters were included in this analysis.
Since last month, Trump’s support decreased two points among likely voters, from 48% to 46%, while Harris surpassed Biden’s 47% by three percentage points, at 50%. When third-party candidates are on the ballot, Trump’s support decreased by one point, from 45% to 44% since last month, while Harris outperformed Biden by four points from 44% to 48%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explains demographic shifts in the past month: “Likely voters under 30 have shifted toward Harris by nine points, 56% of whom supported Biden, 65% now support Harris. Voters over 70 also support Harris over Trump, 51% to 48% — last month they broke 50% to 48% for Trump.”
Kimball added, “Independents break for Harris, 46% to 45%, flipping since last month when likely independent voters broke for Trump 45% to 44%.
Ninety-three percent of voters are extremely or very motivated to vote this November.
“While the overall share of likely voters motivated to vote had little movement, Black voters who say they are ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ motivated to vote this November increased eleven points, from 80% to 91%,” Kimball said.
Over half of voters (51%) have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 49% have an unfavorable view of Harris. Forty-five percent have a favorable view of former President Trump, while 54% have an unfavorable view of Trump.
Thirty-nine percent of voters have a favorable view of both Vice Presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance. Thirty-nine percent have an unfavorable view of Walz, while 49% have an unfavorable view of JD Vance. Twenty-two percent have never heard of Walz, while 12% have never heard of Vance. |
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