“In a surprising twist, while Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden among registered voters at 51% to 49%, the tables turn among likely voters, with Biden edging ahead at 51% to 49%. This defies conventional wisdom, challenging the notion that Trump supporters are more energized. This marks the initial inclusion of a general election voting intention question in the Emerson Poll this election cycle,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

“Among independent voters, 44% support Trump, 41% Biden, and 14% are undecided. With third-party candidates on the ballot, 40% support Trump, 37% Biden, and 10% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr.”

Regardless of which candidate they support, 48% expect Trump to be president after the election, 45% Biden.

President Biden has a job approval rating of 40% and a 51% disapproval rating. Nine percent are neutral.

• Joe Biden: 46% favorable, 54% unfavorable
• Donald Trump: 48% favorable, 52% unfavorable
• Kamala Harris: 43% favorable, 53% unfavorable, 4% not familiar
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 42% favorable, 43% unfavorable; 15% not familiar
• Nicole Shanahan: 12% favorable, 27% unfavorable; 62% not familiar
• Pete Buttigieg: 33% favorable, 38% unfavorable; 29% not familiar

On the generic congressional ballot, 46% of voters support the Democratic candidate, 45% the Republican candidate; 9% are undecided.

The top issue for 35% of voters is the economy, followed by immigration (22%), threats to democracy (13%), healthcare (7%), crime (6%), abortion access (6%), housing affordability (5%), and education (3%).

As baseball season kicks off, voters were asked to choose one sport as “America’s sport” even if they don’t personally follow it. Football is viewed as America’s sport by 49% of voters, followed by baseball (26%), basketball (12%), hockey (4%), auto racing (3%), and soccer (3%).

• Trump and Biden voters agree that football is America’s sport (50% of Biden voters and 48% of Trump voters).

A majority (55%) of voters have watched at least a little of this year’s men’s or women’s NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, while 45% have not tuned in.

In the Women’s Final Four, a plurality of voters (35%) are rooting for Iowa, 16% for South Carolina, 13% for NC State, and 10% for UConn; 26% have no preference.

• In the Northeast, 35% are rooting for Iowa, and 26% for UConn.
• In the South, 28% are rooting for South Carolina, 26% Iowa, and 17% NC State.
• In the Midwest, 56% are rooting for Iowa.
• In the West, 27% rooting for Iowa, 42% do not have a preference.

In the Men’s Final Four, 25% are rooting for NC State, 15% for Alabama, 16% for UConn, and 14% for Purdue; 30% have no preference.

• In the Northeast, 39% are rooting for UConn, 21% NC State.
• In the South, 33% are rooting for NC State, 21% Alabama.
• In the Midwest, 27% are rooting for Purdue, 17% NC State.
• In the West, 23% are rooting for NC State, 16% Purdue, and 15% Alabama.

“Biden and Trump voters are both rooting for Iowa in the women’s tournament (37% of Trump voters and 33% of Biden voters), and NC state in the men’s tournament (26% of Trump voters and 25% of Biden voters).

Voters were asked how much of a threat to public health in the United States they view measles as. Seventeen percent view them as a major threat, 33% a moderate threat, 36% a minor threat, and 15% do not view it as a threat at all.