The 4 p.m. Election Day numbers came into Essex County, and the clerk, Chris Durkin, estimated 122,000 total votes so far.

That’s compared to 160,000 total in 2017.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy (in bold type) pulled these numbers then over Republican Kim Guadagno:

What does it mean?

First, Essex is the most valuable county in the state for Democrats.

It’s home to more registered Democrats in New Jersey than any other single county.

It’s also home to Democratic state Party Chairman LeRoy Jones (pictured), who serves as Essex Party Democratic Committee Chairman and East Orange Democratic Committee Chairman.

Short of a madcap after-work rush,  the numbers are a little off the mark from four years ago, and Murphy’s numbers against 2021 Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli will likely glide in short of where he was in his match-up with Guadagno.

That in and of itself doesn’t mean much without factoring in a sense of where Ocean County is performing.

Ocean is the biggest GOP county in the state.

As everyone has said from the beginning of this rather downbeat cycle, the game is all about turnout.

Two Democratic Party sources worried about the prospect of Murphy failing to win by a concussive margin, and leaving himself open to havoc created by his own party, even as he attempts to position himself in the presidential conversation. But he beat Guadagno by 12 points, 56-42% – “two touchdowns,” as the governor often notes. A source in South Bergen – where Ciattarelli would hope to do well – said he isn’t seeing high totals.