Fairleigh Dickinson University, Madison, New Jersey, February 24, 2020 – As Governor Murphy enters the second half of his tenure, his approval remains in the low to mid-40s, with a minority of Garden State residents unable to identify a single major legislative accomplishment. Moreover, the most recent statewide survey of adults from the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll finds a plurality who say Governor Murphy has been unable to move the needle on issues ranging from the economy to the state’s transportation infrastructure, to the overall quality of life for those who call New Jersey home.

What have you done for me lately?

Opinion is decidedly mixed on whether respondents believe any major or minor accomplishments can be credited to the governor, or if not real accomplishments come to mind. Thirty-nine percent believe Governor Murphy has achieved some success, with ten percent who credit him with a major accomplishment, and 29 percent who think he can claim credit for a minor achievement. A third (33%) say the governor has achieved no real accomplishments, and sixteen percent remain uncertain about the governor’s accomplishments. Except for partisanship, virtually all demographic groups considered evaluating the governor’s accomplishments, or lack thereof, similarly.

“Although the governor is keen on pointing out the number of bills he has signed into law; the fact remains that many of his constituents cannot identify his accomplishments. New Jersey is a tough crowd. These numbers suggest more is needed in the messaging department,” said Krista Jenkins, the poll’s director and a Professor of Politics and Government at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Those who said he has had a major accomplishment – or two or three – were asked to name them. The most frequently cited was the state’s minimum wage increase, which is in the midst of a five-year increase to $15 an hour. Other commonly cited accomplishments include the “almost” passage of legalized recreational marijuana and the belief that the governor has at least attempted to fix the state’s broken transportation infrastructure. Beyond these, a wide and diverse array of perceived accomplishments were mentioned, including restoring the state’s reputation after the Christie years, educational reforms, promoting increased gun control measures, and a belief that he’s done something big, even if respondents are unable to identify what “it” is.

“Clearly the minimum wage increase has resonated with the public and making good on a campaign promise to get people more money is a big deal. However, based on these numbers, it looks like the message remains undelivered for many,” said Jenkins.

The governor’s accomplishment record is perceived similarly across a host of demographic groups. Where differences do exist, they are the most apparent in regard to being able to discern whether and to what degree the governor has secured a victory. For example, those with no college experience, and non-white respondents, were more likely as compared with others to say they don’t know if Murphy has done anything notable.

Treading Water on Important Issues

Respondents were asked whether Governor Murphy has made things better, worse, or do conditions remain the same across a host of issues. On all five (the state’s economy, transportation system, taxes and spending, reputation to outsiders, and the lives of people who live in New Jersey), a plurality say not much has changed since Christie left and Murphy arrived.

Murphy has made the most gains with the economy, although only one-in-four adults credit him with doing some good in that area, and he does the worst with taxes and spending, as 44 percent believe his leadership has made things worse in a state that’s already known for its high taxes and cost of living.

In all of the areas, the governor is underwater in the number of those who said things have improved as compared with those who believe conditions have worsened since he took office.

“For many, the jury is still out on the governor, even though he’s now well into the second half of his administration. But for the remainder, the glass is half empty rather than full, as the state’s perennial issues are believed to have worsened under his watch,” said Jenkins. “And even though Democrats are, on balance, more sanguine than independents and Republicans, even their numbers aren’t overwhelmingly flattering for the governor.”

Job approval

Forty-two percent of New Jersey adults approve of the governor’s job performance, with 36 percent who say they disapprove. These numbers are statistically unchanged from October 2019, the last time the question was asked. At around this time in his administration, Murphy’s predecessor, Chris Christie had a better approval ratio, with 54 percent approval to 34 percent disapproval. Jon Corzine’s numbers were closer to Murphy’s today, although his disapproval was markedly higher than the governor’s today (44%/45%).

Although most Democrats approve of the governor’s job performance, almost a third (30%) either disapprove or say they simply don’t know. And while 68 percent of Republicans disapprove of Murphy, a fifth (22%) approve.

“His numbers among Democrats don’t invite a primary challenge. But they do suggest that the governor has work to do among his own party’s rank and file as he plans for re-election,” said Jenkins.

Right direction/wrong track numbers also appear to be stuck for Murphy. Opinion is equally divided between those who offer a positive appraisal for the direction the state is headed (42%) and those who believe quite the opposite (41%). In October 2019, right direction/wrong track numbers were similarly at 47%/42%. Democrats and Republicans are not united in their view of the state’s health. A majority of Democrats are pleased (58%) and a majority of Republicans are unhappy (66%), but a quarter of each group evaluates the state’s health differently.

“Apparently there’s more to a state’s health than its economic indicators,” said Jenkins. “With record-low unemployment, it looks like other factors are weighing heavily on the minds of residents when they consider the overall health of the Garden State. Taxes no doubt continue to weigh heavily on the minds of residents.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted by live callers on both landlines and cellular phones between February 12 through February 16, 2020 with a scientifically selected random sample of 805 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult currently available. The interview was conducted in English and included 321 adults reached on a landline phone and 484 adults reached on a cell phone, all acquired through random digit dialing.

The data were weighted to be representative of the non-institutionalized adult population of New Jersey. The weighting balanced sample demographics to target population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region and phone use. The sex, age, education, race/ethnicity and region parameters were derived from 2017 American Community Survey PUMS data. The phone use parameter was derived from estimates provided by the National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program.[1][2][3]

Weighting was done in two stages. The first stage of weighting corrected for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each household and each respondent’s telephone usage patterns. This adjustment also accounts for the overlapping landline and cell sample frames and the relative sizes of each frame and each sample. This first stage weight was applied to the entire sample which included all adults.

The second stage of the weighting balanced sample demographics to match target population benchmarks. This weighting was accomplished using SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population.

EFFECTS OF SAMPLE DESIGN ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. We calculate the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called “design effect” or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from a disproportionate sample design and systematic non-response. The total sample design effect for this study is 1.36.[4]

All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 801 New Jersey adults is +/-4 percentage points (including the design effect) at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus, if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46 and 54 percent (50 +/- 4) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample.

Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.

This telephone survey was fielded by Braun Research, Inc. with sample from Dynata.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics

805 New Jersey Adults

Male                                        48%                 N = 382 (+/-5%)

Female                                     52%                 N = 423 (+/-5%)

18-34                                       27%                 N = 214 (+/-7%)

35-54                                       35%                 N = 285 (+/-6%)

55+                                          26%                 N = 305 (+/-6%)

Democrat (with leaners)             51%                 N = 393 (+/-5%)

Independent                             18%                 N = 139 (+/-8%)

Republican (with leaners)         31%                 N = 241 (+/-6%)

White                                       59%                 N = 472 (+/-4%)

Black                                       12%                 N = 99 (+/-10%)

Hispanic                                  19%                 N = 151(+/-8%)

Other                                       10%                 N = 79 (+/-11%)

HS or less                                 30%                 N = 239 (+/-6%)

Some college                            31%                 N = 252 (+/-6%)

College                                     38%                 N = 309 (+/-6%)

Question wording and order:

LV1      Are you currently registered to vote at this address?

1          Yes                                          [Ask PID1]

2          No                                           [Ask LV2]

8          DK (vol)                                   [Ask LV2]

9          Refused (vol)                           [Ask LV2]

LV2      Do you plan on registering in time to vote in the state’s primary elections in June?

1          Yes                                          [Ask PID1]

2          No                                           [Ask PID1]

8          DK (vol)                                   [Ask PID1]

9          Refused (vol)                           [Ask PID1]

PID1    In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent, or something else?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Independent à ASK PID2

4          Something Else/Other

8          Don’t know (VOL)

9          Refused (VOL)

PID2          Which way do you lean?

1          Democrat

2          Republican

3          Independent

4          Something Else/Other

8          Don’t know (VOL)

9          Refused (VOL)

NOTE TO PROGRAMMER: ASK REMAINDER OF LV SERIES IF PID1  = 1 OR (PID1 = 3 & PID2 = 1); OTHERWISE ASK US1

LV3      Please rate your chances of voting in June on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning you’ll definitely vote, and 1 meaning you definitely will not vote.

1-10

88        DK (vol)

99        Refused (vol)

LV4      Please tell me how enthusiastic you are to vote in June on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning you’re extremely enthused and 1 meaning you’re not at all enthused to vote.

1-10

88        DK (vol)

99        Refused (vol)

LV5      I know it’s early, but if the Democratic primary were held today, who would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER]?

1          Joseph Biden

2          Michael Bloomberg

3          Pete Buttigieg [BOOT-A-JEJ]

4          Tulsi Gabbard [GAB-ARD]

5          Amy Klobuchar [KLO-BA-SHAR]

6          Bernie Sanders

7          Tom Steyer  [STI-ER]

8          Elizabeth Warren

US1.    Do you approve or disapprove [ROTATE] of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

US2     Since President Trump took office in 2017, would you say he’s had major accomplishments, minor accomplishments, or no real accomplishments as president?

1          Major               ASK US2a

2          Minor

3          No real accomplishments

4          Both major and minor (vol)

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused  (vol)

US2A   What has been his biggest accomplishment? [open ended]

US3     Which of the following statements best describes how you feel, even if neither statement is perfect: Democrats have overreacted to President Trump’s behavior OR Democrats have not done enough to correct problems they see with President Trump’s behavior [RANDOMIZE ORDER]

1          Overreacted

2          Not done enough

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused  (vol)

NJ1.     And turning to New Jersey, do you approve or disapprove [RANDOMIZE] of the job Phil

Murphy is doing as governor?

1          Approve

2          Disapprove

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

NJ2.     In your opinion, do you think things in New Jersey are moving in the right direction or are they on the wrong track [RANDOMIZE]?

1          Right direction

2          Wrong track

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)

NJ3      Since Governor Murphy took office in 2018, would you say he’s had major

accomplishments, minor accomplishments, or no real accomplishments as governor?

1          Major               ASK NJ3A

2          Minor

3          No real accomplishments

4          Both major and minor (vol)

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused  (vol)

NJ3A   What has been his biggest accomplishment? [open ended]

NJ4      I’m going to read you some issue areas. For each please just tell me if it has become better or worse or hasn’t changed since Phil Murphy became governor. First… [RANDOMIZE]…

NJ4A   The economy in New Jersey

NJ4B   The state’s transportation system, INCLUDING ROADS, BRIDGES, TRAINS AND TUNNELS

NJ4C   Taxes and spending in the state

NJ4D   The state’s reputation to outsiders

NJ4E    The lives of people who live in New Jersey

1          Better

2          Worse

3          Same

8          DK (vol)

9          Refused (vol)