When it comes to gubernatorial elections in New Jersey, Republicans like talking about history.

I recall hearing then-former governor Chris Christie make this point awhile back in a speech before a group of hunters and fishermen in Sussex County.

The great thing about history is that when you look back, you can pick where you want to start. And Christie started with Brendan Byrne, who was governor from 1974 until January, 1982.

But that wasn’t the point. The message here was that Byrne was the last Democrat to be re-elected as governor. Republicans, in contrast, have elected – and re-elected – three governors since the beginning of
this history lesson – Tom Kean in 1981 and 1985, Christie Whitman in 1993 and 1997 and Christie himself in 2009 and 2013.

Christie and other Republicans frame it this way. State voters, many of whom think independently when it comes to politics, may support Democrats once, but after seeing how badly they mess things up, they
vote for the “adults in the room” the next time around. And then they elect them again before trying something different.

For the record, the Dems who failed to get to a second term since Byrne have been Jim Florio, James McGreevey and Jon Corzine.

McGreevey, of course, resigned before he had a chance to seek re-election.

So with Phil Murphy getting ready to seek his second term, this rather arcane slice of Jersey history gives hope to Republicans as we enter the 2021 gubernatorial election cycle. Hope is important for the GOP in a state with about a million more registered Democrats than Republicans.

But how far does it go?

Every election is different and there are solid reasons why recent Democratic governors were not re-elected.

Florio ratcheted up fierce criticism very quickly by increasing taxes on a whole bunch of things – toilet paper included – by almost $3 billion total.

McGreevey, as we said, never ran for re-election. Corzine was a lackluster figure both as governor and as a campaigner. He also ran against Christie, who at the time, had a splendid reputation as the guy who was putting crooked politicians in jail.

The 2021 landscape is much more challenging for the GOP. in two ways. Murphy is still popular.

His approval ratings soared at the start of the pandemic and remain at around 60 percent. That can change, but at the moment a majority of state residents seem to think the governor, who has become a familiar presence on TV, is doing a good job handling an awful situation.

Republicans will continue to point to business lockdowns and the like, but that argument may be only persuasive to the GOP’s base. The bottom line here is that most people consider health and safety to be more important than economic concerns and the right to stage a big party.

Another problem is that Republicans do not have an obvious candidate to take on Murphy. By that, I mean a candidate with some degree of statewide name recognition and credentials. As noted, Christie in 2009 was the guy wearing the “white hat” in corrupt New Jersey. And if you go back to 1993, Whitman was fresh off nearly beating Bill Bradley in a race for U.S. Senate.

None of the Republicans now in the 2021 race would seem to have any of the credentials Christie and Whitman had.

Of course, it is only January – just about.

Murphy can mess up as the pandemic continues; a better Republican candidate can pop up.

But as of now, the past may not be prologue.