Just 26% say the U.S. should have a major role in the Ukraine conflict, according to a new national poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Fifty-two percent say a minor role; 20% say none at all.

For students of the interplay of American politics and foreign policy, this result is hardly a surprise.

Americans in the 21st century are not isolationist.  They are willing to send American troops into foreign conflicts if they perceive some American national security interest to be at risk.  Such intervention would be defined in this poll as a “major role.”

They also are willing to be involved in mediation, economic sanctions, and military and non-military financial assistance in foreign conflicts not involving American national security interests, as long as American troops do not participate in the conflict. Such involvement would have the purposes of international peace and good order and be defined in the above poll as a “minor role.”

The political dilemma for Biden is what choice does he have if a minor role inadvertently widens into a major role.  The prime risk of such an expansion of the American role is likely to result from the sending of troops by Biden to Europe to bolster NATO forces.

Biden has pledged that these troops will not be involved in any direct conflict with Russia over Ukraine.  If an inadvertent clash occurs between an American NATO ally and Russia over Ukraine, however, then Biden will find his administration dragged into a major Ukraine role because of NATO and Article 5 – the covenant in the agreement that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all.

Thus far, Biden is winning public approval even from those who have criticisms of his Ukraine policies, including myself, because of his adept diplomacy in forging American and international unity.  This unity includes our European allies.  If an American major role is avoided, Biden’s Ukraine policies are likely to remain popular, even if Russia gains control of major portions of Ukraine.

If America involuntarily is dragged into a major role in Ukraine, then Biden’s current popularity rating will plummet.  This greater public antipathy towards him could have the effect of making competitive various Congressional races in New Jersey where the Democratic incumbent currently has a prohibitive advantage.  Examples of such incumbents include Andy Kim (3rd), Josh Gottheimer (5th), and Mikie Sherrill (11th)

The case of Tom Malinowski is different.  He has an encyclopedic knowledge of foreign policy, due to his previous experience as Assistant Secretary of State in the Obama administration.

If Tom Malinowski offers cogent, comprehensive, and comprehensible European policy alternatives to those of the Biden administration, then Malinowski’s campaign could survive Biden‘s widening involvement in Ukraine.

There is one possible consequence of the war in Ukraine that Malinowski could not and will not politically survive: A dramatic continuing rise in the price of oil.  Such a skyrocketing oil price will cause an overall astronomical increase in the consumer price index and a national landslide takeover by the Republicans of both the House and Senate – including Tom Malinowski’s Seventh New Jersey Congressional District.  Tom Kean, Jr. would become Congressman Tom Kean, Jr. in January, 2023.

The headline for my column yesterday was, “If Inflation Recedes, Tom Kean, Jr. Will Lose.”  The headline today could conversely be, “If Inflation Accelerates, Tom Malinowski Will Lose”

The first economic news item that Tom Malinowski and Tom Kean, Jr. will check every day until Election Day will be the price of oil.

As for me personally, after I completed my four-part series on the Malinowski v. Kean, Jr. race this week, I thought I would be taking a break from that particular campaign for a while.  Now I feel like Michael Corleone in The Godfather, Part 3.  Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!

Alan J. Steinberg served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.