New Jersey’s gubernatorial election is nearly a year off, but the pundit predictors are already in full throat, confidently forecasting a landslide launch of Governor Phil Murphy’s second term.

Their prophecy and comfort level rests in large measure on the longest-lasting, pounding political hangover in recent memory — the four years of uproar and tumult that was the Trump presidency.  No amount of alka-seltzer will drive the morning after dancing demons of the White House from the voters’ collective skull.

The channelers of their inner Nostradamus believe New Jersey’s rejection of the president by 16 points wasn’t sufficient to purge the dislike from the blood stream of the body politic and the second bite at the Republican apple will occur in November of 2021, locking united Democratic control of state government in place for another four years.

There exists ample and compelling evidence to support the theory that Trump’s single term in office and his irrational, near-demented insistence that were it not for millions of fraudulent votes he would be prepping for his second inaugural has inflicted long term damage on the Republican brand and on any candidate who embraces it.

It would appear that the obstacles are too great and the baggage too heavy for the announced Republican candidates for governor — former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli of Somerset County and Republican State Chairman Doug Steinhardt of Warren County.  (A third candidate, Atlantic County businessman Hirsh Singh, won’t be a factor).

Steinhardt, though, has not shied away from any association with Trump, unflinchingly characterizing himself as a long-time supporter of the president and someone who shares his philosophy and policy goals.

Ciattarelli, on the other hand, has been a Trump critic and a Trump supporter and now faces a thread the needle dilemma, called upon to reconcile his 2015-16 description of Trump as a “charlatan” who “wasn’t fit to be president” with his appearance with the president at a campaign rally in Wildwood this summer.

Steinhardt’s whole-hearted embrace of the president poses no such predicament.  There is no explanation necessary nor is there any debate over his position — he’s a Trump guy, has always been a Trump guy.  End of discussion.

On the surface, Steinhardt’s fealty to Trump would seem to provide an edge for him in delivering his pitch to the Republican base, those voters who show up faithfully on primary election day to bestow their favor on those candidates who’ve been equally faithful to the party.

It is noteworthy that Trump, while absorbing a serious beatdown at Joe Biden’s hands, actually increased his share of the vote in New Jersey by more than 200,000 —- receiving 1.6 million in his 2016 loss to Hillary Clinton and 1.8 million in 2020.

Whether a significant portion of that enthusiasm level can be maintained in the 2021 gubernatorial primary with its considerably lower turnout is open to debate and whether Steinhardt can tap deeply into it is equally unclear.

He is obviously banking on an undercurrent of lingering but strong resentment on the part of those who believe Trump was cheated out of a victory and who will express their anger by siding with him.

Ciattarelli and his staff must find a way to reinforce his bona fides with the Republican base, to convince party line voters that while he was critical of Trump at one point in his public career, Americans have spoken, the courts have ruled on allegations of election fraud and the time has come to move forward.

He must argue that fighting the last war is a futile and wasteful exercise at a time when attention and energy should be turned toward fighting the next war against Murphy and that he is the most qualified to lead the fight.

Because historically voter turnout in primary elections has been light, the margin of error for both candidates is small and success often relies heavily on strong organization, fund-raising prowess and endorsements.

Steinhardt, by virtue of his service as state chairman has established and maintained valuable local contacts who can be relied upon to deliver both money and manpower, while Ciattarelli’s prior experience in seeking the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2017, has established name recognition and credibility with local party leaders.

Both have spent the past several months criticizing Murphy for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, questioning his fiscal and tax policies and focusing on the Administration’s ethical lapses.

Contested primary elections, though, are seldom decided on weighty matters of policy.  They are fundamentally partisan functions conducted for the benefit of committed party voters to express their choice of candidates they believe are best equipped to apply a particular philosophy to government.

Both Steinhardt and Ciattarelli understand that the shadow of Donald Trump will hover above the 2021 campaign.  His presidency will still be fresh in voters’ minds and, while its uncertain at the moment, the ex-president may still stand athwart the political environment, commanding outsized media attention and exerting control of party direction and messaging.

Which of the two will emerge next June as the leader of the Republican ticket will confront the enormous task of dealing with the Trump effect, the residual impact of an Administration that was soundly rejected in New Jersey.    Maintaining the focus on the Murphy Administration will be challenging, all the more so because the governor will have coasted through a primary process without opposition — at least credible opposition — and will lead a unified Democratic Party committed to extending its control of state government to eight years.

All those Nostradamus wannabes that currently populate the political/media axis may very well walk away with bragging rights.  As early as it is, they’re counting on it.

Carl Golden is a senior contributing analyst with the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University.