Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are basically tied in the race for Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, according to the Monmouth University Poll. This result comes even though Trump is seen as being more in line than Harris with the Keystone State’s political views. Harris does best among high-propensity voters, while Trump’s path to victory relies on turning out enough low-propensity voters. The current state of the U.S. Senate race is a little better for Democrats, but not by much.

Overall, just under half of registered voters in Pennsylvania say they will either definitely or have already voted for Harris (42%) or will probably vote for her (5%). In a separate question, an identical number will either definitely or have already voted for Trump (42%) or will probably vote for him (5%). Trump continues to have a significant advantage among white voters without a college degree – who make up nearly half of Pennsylvania’s voter pool – garnering 60% support from this group to 35% for Harris. Harris holds the edge among white college graduates (58% to 37% for Trump) and voters who are Black, Hispanic, and of other races (62% to 25%).

The current results represent statistically insignificant movement from Monmouth’s Pennsylvania poll taken five weeks ago. Support for Harris has decreased nominally by one percentage point from 48% in September while her definite support ticked up from 40% to 42%. Trump’s total support has increased slightly by 2 points from 45%, with his definite support going from 38% to 42%. At the opposite end of the spectrum the number of voters who have definitely ruled out a vote for Trump increased slightly from 46% to 49% and the definitely not number for Harris went up by a bit more, going from 44% to 50%.

“It’s important to note that any movement we’ve seen since the last Monmouth poll is well within the margin of error. What we said last month still applies. Percentage point shifts are too small to be statistically precise in a poll, but they could be consequential if real. The bottom line is this was an incredibly close race in September and remains so today,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Regionally, Trump is doing about as well as he did four years ago in the reddest parts of Pennsylvania. In the western and central parts of the commonwealth – a 52-county area that includes Amish country but excludes Allegheny County – he has 58% support compared with 37% for Harris. In 2020, he won this area, which accounts for about 40% of the total statewide vote, by a 63% to 36% margin. In the bluer southeast corner of the state, including Philadelphia and its four surrounding suburban counties, the poll finds Harris with 58% support and Trump with 36%. Four years ago, now-President Joe Biden beat Trump in the 5-county Delaware Valley region, which comprised about a third of the statewide vote total, by a vote share of 66% to 33%.

Factoring potential third-party voting into these results puts registered voter support for Trump at 47% and support for Harris at 46%, with 4% definitely or probably backing another candidate and 3% expressing no candidate preference. Different scenarios give a picture of how the outcome could change based on small shifts in turnout. Just over 8 in 10 voters (81%) say they are extremely motivated to vote this year, up from 75% a month ago. Among this motivated group, Trump has 48% definite or probable support and Harris has an identical 48% support. Last month, Harris (50%) had a slight edge over Trump (46%) among extremely motivated voters.

Past voting history is another metric that can describe potential turnout scenarios. If the electorate is identical to the 2020 election, the race could be just as tight as it was then. Specifically, among those whose registration record shows they voted in the 2020 election, Trump has 47% support and Harris has 46%. In 2020, Trump lost the commonwealth by a single point to Biden. If the electorate looks more like the 2022 midterm, though, Harris has 48% support and Trump has 46%.

Looking at the turnout history among the voters polled by Monmouth finds that Harris has a significant edge among those who voted in every one of the past five federal elections (51% support, to 46% for Trump). Moderate turnout voters – those who have voted in a majority of general elections since 2014 – tilt toward Trump (49%, to 43% for Harris). When these two groups are combined Harris has 48% support and Trump has 47%. Trump also does well among those who have voted in none or just a few elections over the past decade – getting 47% support from this group to just 42% who back Harris.

“Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania is by turning out low-propensity voters. In a normal election this may be difficult to do. For many, their lack of participation is due to an underlying distrust in government itself. Being drawn out to participate in the democratic process by Trump’s ‘burn it down’ appeal could be the ultimate irony,” said Murray.

Turning to Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate election, registered voters give an insignificant edge to incumbent Democrat Bob Casey (40% definite and 7% probable) over his Republican challenger Dave McCormick (36% definite and 8% probable). Casey’s total support (47%) is about the same as a month ago (45%) while his definite support has increased by 6 percentage points to 40%. McCormick’s total support is 44%, similar to 42% in September, but his definite support has grown by 9 percentage points to 36% in the current poll. At the same time, those who say they will definitely not vote for the Republican has increased from 40% to 47% in the past five weeks, while the number who will definitely not vote for the Democrat has seen a similar increase, from 37% to 44%.

There is not a lot split-ticket voting in this election, but where it occurs, it tends to benefit Casey. Slightly more Trump voters say they back Casey (4%) than Harris voters say they back McCormick (1%). When potential third-party voting is taken into account, Casey’s support stands at 45% and McCormick’s support is 44%, with 6% definitely or probably backing another candidate and 6% expressing no candidate preference in the U.S. Senate race. Different turnout scenarios tend to benefit the incumbent, although only slightly. Casey has a slight edge among extremely motivated voters (48% to 45% for McCormick), 2020 voters (46% to 45%), 2022 voters (48% to 44%), and those with a high to moderate turnout history (47% to 45%). Low propensity voters are evenly divided at 41% for each candidate.

“Casey is running slightly ahead of the top of the ticket, but not far enough ahead to be comfortable,” said Murray.

Pennsylvania voters are split on the question of whether Trump’s political views are in line (48%) or out of step (47%) with most residents of the commonwealth. They are more negative about Harris (41% in line and 52% out of step). The gap in the perceived views of the two candidates narrows in some turnout scenarios, but does not close. For example, among high and moderate propensity voters, 47% say Trump’s views are in line with the commonwealth (48% out of step) and 43% say Harris’s are in line (50% out of step).

When the same political views question is asked about the U.S. Senate candidates, Casey (43% in line and 47% out of step) and McCormick (43% in line and 46% out of step) get nearly identical marks from registered voters. Casey does slightly better than McCormick, though, among the poll’s different turnout scenario subgroups.

In other poll findings, 7 in 10 voters are either very (43%) or somewhat (28%) confident that the 2024 election in Pennsylvania will be conducted fairly and accurately. While the vast majority of Harris voters (78%) are very confident about how the election will be carried out, exceedingly few Trump voters (11%) share this view. Most Trump supporters (78%) say they will wait until Election Day to cast their vote. More than 4 in 10 (43%) Harris backers say they will vote early, including 24% who told Monmouth they had already returned their mail ballots at the time they took the poll.

Turning to the U.S. House election in Pennsylvania, a generic congressional ballot test gives Republicans 49% of the potential statewide vote and Democrats get 46%. The House race remains tight in different turnout scenarios, including among extremely motivated voters (49% Republican and 48% Democrat), 2020 voters (49% R and 46% D), 2022 voters (48% R and 48% D), and high to moderate turnout voters (49% R and 48% D). These results are similar to Monmouth’s September poll.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from October 24 to 28, 2024 with 824 Pennsylvania registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error +/- 3.8 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. How motivated are you to vote in this year’s election – extremely motivated, very motivated, somewhat motivated, or not motivated?

2. How will you vote this year – in person on Election Day, in person at an early voting location, by mail ballot, have you already voted, or won’t you vote at all?

* Note: Voters who already cast their ballots were asked directly for their vote choice.

These responses have been incorporated into Q3-9.

[QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED]

Looking ahead to the November election…

3. How likely are you to vote for Donald Trump in the election for president – will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

4. How likely are you to vote for Kamala Harris in the election for president – will you definitely vote for her, probably vote for her, probably not vote for her, or definitely not vote for her?

5. How likely are you to vote for one of the third party candidates for president, either Chase Oliver the Libertarian candidate or Jill Stein the Green Party candidate – will you definitely vote for a third party candidate, probably vote third party, probably not vote third party, or definitely not vote for a third party candidate?

[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]

Turning to the U.S. Senate race…

6. How likely are you to vote for Dave McCormick, the Republican, in the election for U.S. Senate – will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

7. How likely are you to vote for Bob Casey, the Democrat, in the election for U.S. Senate – will you definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably not vote for him, or definitely not vote for him?

8. How likely are you to vote for one of the third party candidates running for U.S. Senate this year – will you definitely vote for a third party candidate, probably vote third party, probably not vote third party, or definitely not vote for a third party candidate?

9. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives was held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your Congressional district? [PARTIES WERE ROTATED] [If UNDECIDED: At this time do you lean more toward the Republican or more toward the Democratic candidate?] [Includes those who already voted.]

[QUESTIONS 10 & 11 WERE ROTATED]

10. Are Donald Trump’s political views in line or out of step with most residents of Pennsylvania?

11. Are Kamala Harris’s political views in line or out of step with most residents of Pennsylvania?

[QUESTIONS 12 & 13 WERE ROTATED]

12. Are Dave McCormick’s political views in line or out of step with most residents of Pennsylvania?

13. Are Bob Casey’s political views in line or out of step with most residents of Pennsylvania?

14. Overall, how confident are you that the 2024 election in Pennsylvania will be conducted fairly and accurately – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

15. Did you vote in the 2020 presidential election, or did you not vote for whatever reason?

[If YES:] Who did you vote for – Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or another candidate? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 24 to 28, 2024 with a probability-based random sample of 824 Pennsylvania voters. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 141 live landline telephone interviews, 200 live cell phone interviews, and 483 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research using telephone numbers randomly selected from a list of active registered voters obtained from Aristotle. The full sample is weighted for region, age, gender, race and listed partisanship based on the voter list and education based on US Census information (2022 CPS and 2021 ACS one-year surveys), with adjustments made for self-reported 2020 presidential vote. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.21). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (registration): 41% Republican, 44% Democrat, 15% other, none

Party (self-reported): 38% Republican, 30% Independent, 32% Democrat

Sex: 47% men, 52% women, 1% other

Age: 23% 18-34, 23% 35-49, 25% 50-64, 29% 65+

Race: 82% White, 10% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian/other

Education: 38% high school or less, 25% some college, 23% 4 year degree, 14% graduate degree

Region: 12% Philadelphia, 22% Philly suburbs, 15% Northeast, 17% PA Dutch Country,

11% Central, 14% Western, 10% Allegheny