Most Democrats and independents would be upset if President-elect Donald Trump suspended laws and constitutional provisions to go after his political enemies. However, few Republicans say this would bother them a lot, although most see his statements about doing this as overstated. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds that most Americans feel the country has become more divided during President Joe Biden’s term, but only Republicans think it will become more united after Trump takes office again. In other results, more Americans believe the 2024 presidential results were fair than said the same about the 2020 outcome, mainly due to the steadfast refusal of most Republicans to acknowledge the validity of Biden’s win.

Trump suggested during the presidential campaign that he could suspend some laws and constitutional provisions to go after political enemies in his second term. The public is divided on whether this is something he will seriously do (48%) or if it is more of an exaggeration (47%). Most Democrats take these statements seriously (77%) while most Republicans tend to see them as an exaggeration (71%). Republicans are somewhat less likely to takes these statements seriously now (21%) then they were six months ago (33% in June).

If Trump did suspend some laws and constitutional provisions, 52% of the public would be bothered a lot by this. This number is down from 65% who felt this way in June. Those who say they would be bothered a lot by this ranges from 77% of Democrats (down from 86% in June) to 55% of independents (down from 68%) and just 23% of Republicans (down from 41%).

“As recently as this week, Trump said those who investigated the Jan. 6 riot should go to jail. Still many Americans see this more as bombast than intent. If he is serious, however, he can probably bank on his fellow Republicans to stand behind him, or at least turn a blind eye,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Two-thirds (67%) of Americans say the country has become more divided since Biden took office four years ago. This is similar to the number who said the same at the end of Trump’s first term (70% in November 2020). In the current poll, just 10% feel the country has become more united and 23% say it has not really changed. The one thing that has changed is which partisan group expresses negative views about national unity. At the end of Trump’s first term, nearly all Democrats (90%), and close to 3 in 4 independents (73%) said the country grew more divided under Trump, while just under half of Republicans (49%) agreed. This contrasts with current public opinion, where nearly 9 in 10 Republicans (86%) say the country has grown more divided under Biden, while about 6 in 10 independents (62%) and Democrats (56%) feel the same.

Just 34% think the country will become more united under President Trump in the next four years, while 44% say we will grow more divided and 19% expect that not much will change. Republicans (71%) are optimistic about having more unity. Democrats (85%) are pessimistic about seeing more division. Independents tend to lean toward expecting more division (42%) than greater unity (28%).

“Because many Americans tend to dwell in partisan cocoons, there’s the appearance of unity when your side is in charge, even if it is by the slimmest of majorities,” said Murray.

Less than half of the American public says our system of government is basically sound, needing only some (36%) or no (6%) improvement, while a majority say it is on shakier ground, being either not too sound (29%) or not sound at all (29%). Since January 2021, the number of Americans who see our system as sound has ranged between 36% (June 2022) and 50% (September 2022). This opinion was slightly higher between 2017 and 2020 (from 50% to 55%) and significantly higher more than four decades ago (62% in 1980).

Currently, Democrats (55%) are more likely than either independents (39%) or Republicans (36%) to say our system of government is sound. This represents a slight drop since June among Democrats (from 69%) and virtually no change among either independents (43%) or Republicans (39%) in the past six months. When Biden first took office nearly four years ago there was no partisan variation in this opinion, with independents (46% in January 2021) and Republicans (41%) having similar levels of confidence in the American system as they do today, while Democrats (45%) had much less faith in the system’s soundness than they do now. In the first year of Trump’s initial term, however, Republicans were much more positive about the American system (60% basically sound in December 2017) than either independents (45%) or Democrats (48%).

2024 Election Reaction

More than 8 in 10 Americans (83%) believe that Trump won this year’s election fair and square. Just 12% believe he only won it due to voter fraud. Nearly four years ago, a smaller majority (65% in January 2021) believed Biden won the 2020 election fair and square, while 32% said his victory was due to voter fraud. For the most recent election, nearly all Republicans (95%) and independents (86%) and nearly two-thirds of Democrats (65%) believe Trump won fairly. After the prior election nearly all Democrats (98%) and more than 6 in 10 independents (62%) thought Biden won fairly, but only 24% of Republicans agreed. The Monmouth University Poll asked this question more than 10 times throughout Biden’s term and found public opinion, including the partisan gap, barely budged during that entire four-year span.

While the 2024 national popular vote result was the eighth closest presidential margin in the history of the republic, more Americans feel that most of their family and friends voted for Trump (47%) than for Kamala Harris (39%). There are some interesting differences by race and education. Among white Americans without a college degree, 64% say most of their family and friends voted for Trump while just 22% feel their personal circle favored Harris. Among white Americans who hold a college degree, opinion is more divided between Harris (46%) and Trump (42%) being the pick of their family and friends. Among Black, Hispanic, Asian and other non-white Americans, 52% say most of their family and friends voted for Harris while 34% say most voted for Trump.

“This is just more evidence of how partisan tribalism isolates us. Certain groups of Americans simply don’t know many people who have different views from them. Or at least who are willing to talk politics with them,” said Murray.

Just over half of the public is either happy (27%) or satisfied (24%) by the idea of Trump winning the election. At the other end of the spectrum, 23% are dissatisfied and 22% feel angry about this outcome. These overall results are fairly similar to public opinion about Biden’s victory in November 2020, but with significant partisan differences underneath those topline numbers. When Biden won, 57% of Democrats said they felt happy and 35% of Republicans were angry. Now, with the partisan result flipped, there is relatively more happiness in the Republican camp (63%) and a lot more anger among Democrats (52%).

In other poll findings, just 27% of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction while nearly 6 in 10 (58%) feel things have gotten off on the wrong track. This view has been more negative than positive for years, but there has been a shift in partisan opinion since the summer. In June, Democrats (42%) were much more likely than independents (15%) or Republicans (6%) to say the country was headed in the right direction. Now, after Trump’s election victory, Republicans (45%) are more optimistic than independents (22%) or Democrats (16%) about where the country is heading.

One thing Americans of all partisan stripes continue to agree upon is their dim view of Congress. Just 17% approve of the job the U.S. Congress is doing while 74% disapprove. Large majorities of Republicans (67%), Democrats (76%), and independents (78%) alike give negative marks to the federal government’s legislative branch. These results have been fairly consistent over the past decade or so.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from December 5 to 10, 2024 with 1,006 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1. Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

        * Registered voters

2. I’m going to read four statements about our American system of government. Listen carefully and then tell me which one is closest to how you feel: our system of government is basically sound and essentially needs no changes, our system is basically sound, but needs some improvement, our system is not too sound and needs many improvements, or our system is not sound at all and needs significant changes?

* Source: Opinion Research Corporation

3. Has the country become more united, more divided, or not really changed since President Biden took office four years ago?

         * Question wording prior to 2024 did not include “four years ago.”

4. Looking ahead to the next four years under President Trump, do you think the country will grow more united, more divided, or will not much change?

5. Do you believe Donald Trump won the 2024 election fair and square, or do you believe that he only won it due to voter fraud?

6. Does the idea of Donald Trump winning the election make you feel happy, satisfied, dissatisfied, or angry?

* Question in 2020 was asked about “the idea of Joe Biden becoming president.”

7. Did you cast a ballot in this year’s presidential election, or did you not vote for whatever reason? [If YES:] Who did you vote for – Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, or another candidate? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

8. And thinking of your friends and family who voted this year, do you think most of them voted for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

[Q9 previously released.]

[Q10 held for future release.]

11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?

        * Registered voters

[Q12-17 held for future release.]

[Q18-24 previously released.]

25. Donald Trump made statements suggesting that he could suspend some laws and constitutional provisions to go after political enemies if he is elected president again. Do you see these statements as something he will seriously do if elected, or more of an exaggeration?

            * Registered voters

26. If Donald Trump did suspend some laws and constitutional provisions, would that bother you a lot, bother you a little, or not bother you at all?

            * Registered voters

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from December 5 to 10, 2024 with a probability-based national random sample of 1,006 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 208 live landline telephone interviews, 540 live cell phone interviews, and 258 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n=637), Aristotle (list, n=115) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n=254). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2022 one-year survey). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.63). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 27% Republican, 47% Independent, 26% Democrat

Sex: 49% men, 50% women, 1% other

Age: 29% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 38% 55+

Race: 62% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 10% Asian/other

Education: 38% high school or less, 29% some college, 18% 4 year degree, 15% graduate degree

Crosstabs may be found in the PDF file on the report webpage:  https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_US_121224/

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