A majority of Americans feel that President Donald Trump withheld information from the House impeachment committees in an effort to hinder the investigation. The Monmouth University Poll also finds that few believe Trump’s discussion of an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden’s family arose from official administration policy. Still, opinion that Trump should be impeached remains a minority view and there is not a huge deal of public trust in the House inquiry. Note: the poll was conducted before this week’s Judiciary Committee hearing and announcement of intended articles of impeachment.

The president’s job rating stands at 43% approve and 50% disapprove. This is not significantly different from his 43% to 51% rating in November and 41% to 53% rating in late September. Over the past 12 months, the president’s approval rating has ranged from 40% to 44% in Monmouth’s polling, while his disapproval rating has ranged from 50% to 54%. In fact, 71% of Americans say that people are set in their opinions of Trump regardless of any new information that might come out. Only 24% entertain the possibility that new information could ever come out that would significantly change public opinion of him. These results are comparable to when Monmouth asked the same question back in March (67% opinion is set to 29% it could change).

Currently, 45% of Americans feel that Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency, while 50% disagree with this course of action. Support for impeachment and removal is higher than it was in the summer (35% for and 59% against in both August and June), but has held steady since an initial bump after news broke about Trump’s call with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky (44%-52% in late September and 44%-51% in November).

            When presented with four statements about impeachment and Trump’s behavior in office, 38% say that his actions are clearly grounds for impeachment (it was 37% in November) and another 15% say that his actions should be looked into as possible impeachable offenses (17% last month). On the other side of public opinion, just 16% say Trump has not done anything wrong at all (16% last month) and 30% say that some of his actions may have been improper but do not rise to the level of an impeachable offense (28% last month).

“Opinion on impeachment has been rock steady since news of the Ukraine call first broke. Any small shifts we are seeing now are likely to be statistical noise,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll finds that confidence in the congressional impeachment process has also remained steady since public hearings got underway. Just 26% of the public say they have a lot of trust in how the House impeachment inquiry has been conducted so far, 27% have a little trust, and 44% have no trust at all. The comparable numbers in November, before the public hearings, were 24% a lot of trust, 29% a little, and 44% no trust.

Neither political party is seen as particularly high-minded in this process. Just 33% of Americans say congressional Democrats are more interested in pursuing the facts (31% last month) while 59% say they are more interested in finding ways to bring down Trump (60% last month). Similarly, just 29% of Americans say congressional Republicans are more interested in pursuing the facts (25% last month) while 61% say they are more interested in finding ways to defend Trump (61% last month).

“Monmouth’s poll last month showed that half the public believed trust in the House impeachment process would increase once the hearings moved out into the open. That simply has not happened,” said Murray.

A majority of Americans (61%) say that Trump has not cooperated with the House impeachment investigation, which is twice the number who say he has (31%). Only 1 in 4 say Trump has provided either all (10%) or most (14%) of the information that the House committee asked for. Another 35% say he has provided just some of the information and 30% say he has provided none of what was requested.  A majority of Americans (53%) say that if Trump withheld this information it was done more to hinder the investigation, while 35% say it was done more for legitimate reasons.

As may be expected, the vast majority of Democrats say that Trump has not cooperated with the investigation (87%) and has withheld information mainly to hinder the inquiry (89%).  On the other hand, while most Republicans say Trump has been cooperative (53%) and that any withheld information was done for legitimate reasons (60%), a sizable minority of his fellow partisans say the president has not cooperated (36%) and that his lack of cooperation was done more to hinder the investigation (21%).

            “There seems to be a sense, even among some Republicans, that Trump has been trying to hide something. And yet, overall public opinion of impeachment remains pretty much where it has been since the House inquiry got underway,” said Murray.

            Although the Ukraine incident was the impetus for the impeachment charges, 16% of Americans still say they have not heard anything about Trump’s phone call with Zelensky.  Another 64% have heard a lot and 19% have heard a little. Seven in 10 Americans (69%) believe that Trump probably mentioned an investigation into the Biden family during this call while 19% say he probably did not, even though that point of fact is not in dispute. These results are largely unchanged from Monmouth’s November poll (70% Trump did mention an investigation and 15% did not).

            When asked why Trump would have mentioned an investigation into Biden during the call, 40% say it was done to help Trump politically, 21% say it was done to pursue official administration policy, and 29% say it was done for both reasons.  When those who said “both” were asked which of the two reasons they thought played a bigger role, 15% say it was more to help Trump, 9% say it was more to pursue policy, and 5% say the two reasons played an equal role.

            “The Republican defense of Trump has been that the contents of the call were not at all out of the ordinary. And while few Americans buy that premise, there is not a clear majority on the other side who say that that Trump acted wholly out of political motives. This suggests that the upcoming vote on articles of impeachment will continue to divide the public,” said Murray.

             Russian influence has also been a factor in the impeachment process, if not the actual charges.  The public is divided on Trump’s relationship with that country – 46% are concerned that he may be too friendly toward Russia and 49% are not concerned. Since Trump became president, concern about his attitude toward Russia has ranged from 46% to 54% of the public.  Similarly, 47% say Trump’s attitude toward Russia presents a national security threat and 49% say it does not. Opinion that Trump’s Russia relationship poses a security risk has ranged from 45% to 50% since May 2017.

            Nearly two-thirds of the public believes that Russia will definitely (37%) or probably (28%) try to interfere in the 2020 presidential election.  Just 3 in 10 say they will definitely not (13%) or probably not (17%) attempt this.  Only 27% believe the U.S. government is doing enough to stop Russian interference in the American electoral system.  This result has held steady at 27% to 28% since March 2018.  A majority (53%) currently say that the federal government is not doing enough to stop this. This is down slightly from 57% to 60% in past polls, while the number who do not know what the government is doing or say such interference is not happening (19%) is up from past polls (12% to 16%).

The Monmouth University Poll also finds little movement in opinion of Congress and the country’s direction. Currently, 22% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing and 65% disapprove, while 32% say the country is headed in the right direction and 56% say it is on the wrong track.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from December 4 to 8, 2019 with 903 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1.     Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?

2.     Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?

*Registered voters

3.     Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

      *Registered voters

[Note: Q4 was rotated with Q5-Trump reelection question, which was released yesterday.]

4.      Do you think President Trump should be impeached and compelled to leave the presidency, or not?

[Q5 previously released.]

6.     In general, do you think there is any new information that could ever come out about President Trump that would significantly change public opinion of him, or do you think people are set in their opinions regardless of what new information may come out?

7.     Are you concerned or not concerned that President Trump may be too friendly toward Russia?  [If CONCERNED: Are you concerned a lot or a little?]

      *Registered voters

8.     Do you think Trump’s attitude toward Russia does or does not present a national security threat to the U.S.?

9.     Do you think the Russian government will try to interfere in the 2020 presidential election – would you say definitely, probably, probably not, or definitely not?

10.   Is the U.S. government doing enough or not doing enough to stop Russian interference in the American electoral system?

[Q11-12 & 14-16 previously released.]

[Q13 held for future release.]

17.   Which of the following comes closest to how you feel about impeachment: A. Trump has not done anything wrong at all; B. Some of Trump’s actions may have been improper, but they do not rise to the level of impeachment; C. Trump’s actions should be looked into as possible impeachable offenses; or D. Trump’s actions are clearly grounds for impeachment?

18.   How much trust do you have in the way the House impeachment inquiry has been conducted so far – a lot, a little, or none at all?

[QUESTIONS 19 & 20 WERE ROTATED]

19.   Do you think the Democrats in Congress are more interested in pursuing the facts wherever they might lead or more interested in finding ways to bring down President Trump?

20.   Do you think the Republicans in Congress are more interested in pursuing the facts wherever they might lead or more interested in finding ways to defend President Trump?

21.   Would you say Donald Trump has or has not cooperated with the House investigation?

22.   Has Trump provided all of the information that the House committee asked for, most of what they asked for, just some of that they asked for, or none of what they asked for?

23.   If Trump withheld information, do you think this was done more for legitimate reasons or more to hinder the investigation?

24.   Have you heard anything about reports that Donald Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden and his son, or haven’t you heard about this? [If YES: Have you heard a lot or just a little?]

25.   Do you think Donald Trump probably did or probably did not mention the possibility of an investigation into the Biden family during his conversation with the Ukrainian president?

26.   Do you think the mention of an investigation into Biden was done to pursue official administration policy or done to help Donald Trump politically, or done for both reasons? [If BOTH: Which reason do you think played a bigger role – to pursue official administration policy or to help Donald Trump politically?

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from December 4 to 8, 2019 with a national random sample of 903 adults age 18 and older. This includes 363 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 540 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Dynata (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

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