CD2

Most insiders and pollsters project state Senator Jeff Van Drew as the winner over Republican Seth Grossman.

Van Drew’s departure would open up a senate seat.

As we’ve noted before, Assemblyman Bob Andrzejczak(D-1) – a combat veteran of the Iraq War who received the Bronze Star and Purple Heart – would be the favorite to run on the Democratic side.

Also noted: three Republicans circulate as possible candidates: Cumberland County Republican Chairman Mike Testa, Victoria Lods (former Chief of Staff of former Senator Nick Asselta), and former Assemblyman Sam Fiocchi.

A South Jersey GOP source said his party needs to think out of the box in the 1st Legislative District, and suggested retiring U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-2) as a candidate.

The LoBos live in the district.

CD3

If U.S. Rep. Tom MacArthur were to lose to Democratic challenger Andy Kim, Assemblyman Ryan Peters (R-8) appears poised to get a strong once over. The Navy SEAL lieutenant commander deployed multiple times for combat assignments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Other names: state Senator Dawn Addiego (R-8), Freeholder Kate Gibbs (pictured; strong Building Trades cred), Burlington County Sheriff Jean Stanfield, and former Evesham Mayor Randy Brown.

Of course, MacArthur could stage a comeback.

But a GOP source in BurlCo tonight said he’s confident the incumbent Republican defeats Kim by four points.

CD7

We’ve examined this before.

U.S. Rep. Leonard Lance (R-7) is in a reelection dogfight against Democratic challenger Tom Malinowski.

If he were to lose, state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R-21) could be a likely 2020 challenger to Malinowski (presumably with the support of Somerset Republicans in exchange for Union [and Kean-Bramnick] backing for former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R-16) for governor in 2021.

Of course, Ciattarelli may have to duke it out for the nomination with Bob Hugin, if this year’s Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate sufficiently impresses on Nov. 6th.

If Kean were to deny Malinowski a second term, his victory would create a senate vacancy, and presumably make Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R-21) a state senator.

Statewide

As for the Senate seat currently occupied by Bob Menendez, one Hudson source – at the verge of panic – suggested the Hudson County Democratic Organization (HCDO) galvanize the base and drive turnout on Election Day to power out a win for the boss.

Or else.

It’s a little the way a Paterson source sounded in 2012 when considering the possibly of a loss by political animal U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell.

“He’ll run for mayor,” the source said at the time, in reference to Pascrell.

Now in the case of the incumbent U.S. Senator, and considering his potential impact on players like Hudson County Executive Tom DeGise, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, state Senator Brian P. Stack and Senator Nick Sacco, the source said, “I doubt anyone in Hudson wants Menendez lurking around with time on his hands.”