My Final Presidential and US Senate Election Projections
Last Wednesday, October 28, I authored an InsiderNJ column in which I gave my Electoral College projection of 323 electoral votes for Democrat Joe Biden, 163 for incumbent Republican President Donald Trump, and 52 unprojected in the “Toss-up” category.
https://www.insidernj.com/down-wire-my-electoral-college-prediction/
My final projection: From the “toss-ups,” Biden will win Florida (29) and Georgia (16) for a total of 45 additional electoral votes. Trump will win Iowa (6) plus Maine Second Congressional District (1) for a total of 7 additional electoral votes.
FINAL ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION: Biden 368, Trump 170.
A few notes on my final projection:
I had a difficult time making a decision on Florida. I thought of leaving it alone as a toss-up.
Then, I reminded myself of the words of the late Nat Fleischer, the renowned editor of Ring Magazine, the bible of boxing. When asked about judging a boxing match, he had one word of advice: There is no such thing as an even round.
Okay, I said to myself, I have to make a decision. The polls in Florida are a mixed bag, with practically all of them having Biden in the lead, but within the margin of error. I made the call for Biden, based upon the senior vote and the rising toll of Coronavirus patients and deaths.
It was much easier for me to project Biden as a winner in Georgia. The Peach State has been a special focus of mine during this election, and I authored a column solely about the elections in Georgia on October 21:
https://www.insidernj.com/2020-election-georgia-harbinger-new-south/
The early voting in this Georgia election, especially in the African-American community, has been huge. I expect that to bring home a Biden victory.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27F36Z
Iowa had been close, but the Des Moines Register poll, released yesterday, which has Trump up by 7 points, 48-41, seals the deal for me. This poll is the Gold Standard of all Iowa polls and is conducted by Selzer and Company, one of the “Big Six” pollsters rated A+ by Nate Silver. So Iowa is firmly in the Trump column.
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/10/31/iowa-poll-senate-presidential-election-433762
And now for the Senate races:
At present, in the United States Senate, the Republicans control 53 seats and the Democrats, 47. Two of the Democratic Senators are independents who caucus with the Democrats, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.
The Democrats need a net gain of three Senate seats to gain control, if Joe Biden is elected president. Under those circumstances, Vice President Kamala Harris would break the 50-50 tie to give the Democrats control. By contrast, if Donald Trump is reelected, the Democrats would need a net gain of four to gain control.
The Democrats are highly likely to achieve a net gain of three seats, as follows:
DEMOCRAT GAINS:
Arizona: Democrat Mark Kelly will defeat Republican incumbent Martha McSally.
Colorado: Democrat John Hickenlooper will defeat Republican incumbent Cory Gardner.
Maine: Democrat Sara Gideon will defeat Republican incumbent Susan Collins.
North Carolina: Democrat Cal Cunningham will defeat Republican incumbent Thom Tillis.
REPUBLICAN GAINS:
Republican Challenger Tommy Tuberville will defeat Democratic incumbent Doug Jones.
The Democrats could add to this net gain of three if they win one or both of the Georgia Senate seats presently controlled by the Republicans. In each of these two contests, if no candidate polls over 50 percent on Election Day, there will be a runoff on January 5 between the top two candidates.
The first Georgia contest is between the incumbent Republican US Senator David Perdue and his Democratic challenger, media executive Jon Ossoff. There is also a Libertarian candidate, Shane Hazel. It appears likely that this election is headed for a runoff.
The other Senate race is certainly headed for a runoff, due to the fact that there is one major Democratic candidate and two major Republican candidates. This seat was previously held by Republican Johnny Isakson, who stepped down due to health reasons at the end of 2019. Governor Brian Kemp appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler to the seat in January, 2020.
The purpose of this latter election Is to elect a Senator to serve the remainder of the term, which expires in January, 2023. The leading candidates are 1) the Democrat, Raphael Warnock, who, since 2005, has served as Senior Pastor of the famed Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Dr. Martin Luther King served in the 1960s in a similar role; and 2) two Republicans, to wit, the incumbent Loeffler and Congressman Doug Collins.
I think that both these Democrats have a good chance of winning in their respective runoffs. Given the fact that the runoffs will not be held until, January 5, however, it would be premature for me to make any projection in either race at this point.
A week ago, I thought that the Democratic challenger in Iowa, Theresa Greenfield, was likely to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst. The aforesaid Des Moines Register poll, however, puts Ernst in the lead by four points, 46 to 42. I know that this is within the margin of error; however, there appears to be an unmistakable Republican trend in Iowa at this point. My prediction is Ernst.
As for all the other Senate contests in the country, I am predicting that these races will be won by the candidate of the party that presently controls each seat, including the markee races in South Carolina, Montana, and Alaska, where the incumbent Republicans, Lindsey Graham Steve Daines, and Dan Sullivan, respectively, are likely to prevail by close, but not paper-thin margins. And Republican Roger Marshall is likely to win comfortably in Kansas in the race to succeed his fellow Republican, Pat Roberts. Similarly, incumbent Michigan Democratic Senator Gary Peters, once thought to be in jeopardy, will win comfortably.
If any of my readers want to discuss any of these races with me, feel free to contact me through Facebook Messenger at my Facebook page, Alan Joel Steinberg.
Alan Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.
First, some advice for Mrs. Steinberg: (1) My condolences. (2) Please keep sharp objects away from your husband from about 9:00 PM Tuesday onward, perhaps until the end of the ‘shiva’ period Mr. Steinberg will be observing for the “shocking” (but not really) and resounding defeat of Harris-Biden.
Now in terms of his predictions: I believe Steinberg has said in the past he prides himself on being a historian. Hard to fathom why he would ignore the obvious correlation between the 2020 campaign and that of 1980, Reagan vs. Carter. Flashback: Carter leads by double digits in the polls, has a bad debate, loses momentum, and nothing in the real world goes right for the hapless fool between the debate and the election, especially with regarding to the Iranian hostages. Bottom line – Reagan wins 44 states.
2020 – Biden leads by double digits in the polls. Reveals exactly who he is in the last debate. Between the debate and election day …. he’s exposed in the biggest presidential scandal in American history …. Americans find out how much they’ve been duped as they witness the complete censorship of said scandal … Trump draws 25,000-50,000 in each of multiple rallies per day while Biden can’t draw 25 to 50 in his one appearance every few days …. ACB is confirmed to the Supreme Court, a fantastic achievement no matter how Steinberg wants to spin it …. Israel and Sudan agree to peaceful relations ….. 3rd quarter GDP grows 33% ….. riots destroy Philadelphia …. an incoherent Biden is ushered off the stage …. the liberal Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with which Steinberg is very familiar, endorses Trump …. cities all over the USA are boarding up in anticipation of the rioting to occur after Trump WINS.
But Biden gets 368 electoral votes?
The good news is that PhD candidates following Steinberg’s columns for their doctoral thesis have already noticed that his current prediction gives Biden less than the 400+ forecasted by him earlier this year, which in turn was less unrealistic than his earlier prediction that Trump would withdraw from the race. So maybe there’s a little bit or reality sinking in, but it’s very little compared with what’s yet to come.
Assuming Steinberg doesn’t retire from writing his column following Biden’s humiliating defeat, he can feel free to comment on the de Rebbeh prediction, worth about as much as his (except that it’s backed up by history) of 326 electoral votes for Trump. This consists of every battleground state referred to by Steinberg, plus New Hampshire.
But I wouldn’t rule out a Reagan-style avalanche, reaching all the way out to New Jersey. In that case, Mrs. Steinberg, don’t let him out of your sight for even a second.
Oh by the way, that Josh fellow won’t be the first Jewish president, as he isn’t anywhere nearly as radical as AOC the little fascistette will require of Democrat candidates over the next generation. That honor will go to Ivanka Trump.
We should all hope Trump the fat lump in noway wins. He has not yet kept his word on anything. He is very good at just spouting off ignorant rehtoric with out an ounce or a shred of fact checked validity. However so was Hitler as well as Stalin and look at what you uneducated ingrates think is a good thing. The man has absolutely zero political cache, but o wouldn’t expect any of y’all trumpers to know anything about this. It has been proven over and over again without positive change history will repeat itself, and the child y’all put in office is moving at warp speed to recreate some of the most aggresious acts ever inflicted upon mankind. I understand y’all are drawn to his uneducated rallies and speeches which I don’t think he actually correctly gives any information that is at all fact checked. He did not bring back the automobile industry ( fact there was one factory built.) That’s it that’s all, and y’all act like he did all this on his own he obtained all he is worth from his father. Here’s an idea go to Trump Tower pick up a souvenir look at the bottom ( made in China.) Fact. So please educate yourself before opening your mouth just a little bit. It makes you all sound like uneducated, out of touch, ignorant people. Thankfully ignorance can be fixed with education try getting some. Be proud of the USA and stop supporting a whiny child that just wants to get his way no.matter who he hurts. Remember his role model Hitler acted the same and his BFF Putin is playing him and hi as well as yall are again to ignorant to see it. His own father didn’t want to entrust h with the family business just a lack of options. This is the child you want to control our country. I truly pray and sympathis with each of you all.
Stop treating him as a good and see Trump for the lying phony that he constantly proves.
As a god I meant to say
………….AN OUTSTANDING JOB
FINAL ELECTORAL VOTE PROJECTION
Biden ….368. Trump…….170
After the election is over.———————
Hopefully, surely, the news will travel throughout the land,
that Alan Joel Steinberg is the country’s best, not one of the best,
THE BEST at making electoral vote projections!!
AND………..I will cheer happily, excitedly, enthusiastically, passionately
because he is correct, and yes, even more importantly, because
BIDEN/HARRIS WILL BE PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF
OUR BELOVED COUNTRY.
PS… I do not take your hard work for granted, Alan Steinberg.
Know that your time, effort, hard work, research
is appreciated by this InsiderNJ reader.
OMG are you the most stupid person on the planet. It’s going to be a rough 4 more years for you.
I have already served my time.
It has already been a rough 4 years for me.
I am looking forward to 4 pleasant, peaceful, polite years.
(See.. Don Winslow….. Please SAVE these children)
Thank you for your concern about my welfare…❤️
First, some advice for Mrs. Steinberg: (1) My condolences. (2) Please keep sharp objects away from your husband from about 9:00 PM Tuesday onward, perhaps until the end of the ‘shiva’ period Mr. Steinberg will be observing for the “shocking” (but not really) and resounding defeat of Harris-Biden.
Now in terms of his predictions: I believe Steinberg has said in the past he prides himself on being a historian. Hard to fathom why he would ignore the obvious correlation between the 2020 campaign and that of 1980, Reagan vs. Carter. Flashback: Carter leads by double digits in the polls, has a bad debate, loses momentum, and nothing in the real world goes right for the hapless fool between the debate and the election, especially with regarding to the Iranian hostages. Bottom line – Reagan wins 44 states.
2020 – Biden leads by double digits in the polls. Reveals exactly who he is in the last debate. Between the debate and election day …. he’s exposed in the biggest presidential scandal in American history …. Americans find out how much they’ve been duped as they witness the complete censorship of said scandal … Trump draws 25,000-50,000 in each of multiple rallies per day while Biden can’t draw 25 to 50 in his one appearance every few days …. ACB is confirmed to the Supreme Court, a fantastic achievement no matter how Steinberg wants to spin it …. Israel and Sudan agree to peaceful relations ….. 3rd quarter GDP grows 33% ….. riots destroy Philadelphia …. an incoherent Biden is ushered off the stage …. the liberal Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with which Steinberg is very familiar, endorses Trump …. cities all over the USA are boarding up in anticipation of the rioting to occur after Trump WINS.
But Biden gets 368 electoral votes?
The good news is that PhD candidates following Steinberg’s columns for their doctoral thesis have already noticed that his current prediction gives Biden less than the 400+ forecasted by him earlier this year, which in turn was less unrealistic than his earlier prediction that Trump would withdraw from the race. So maybe there’s a little bit or reality sinking in, but it’s very little compared with what’s yet to come.
Assuming Steinberg doesn’t retire from writing his column following Biden’s humiliating defeat, he can feel free to comment on the de Rebbeh prediction, worth about as much as his (except that it’s backed up by history) of 326 electoral votes for Trump. This consists of every battleground state referred to by Steinberg, plus New Hampshire.
But I wouldn’t rule out a Reagan-style avalanche, reaching all the way out to New Jersey. In that case, Mrs. Steinberg, don’t let him out of your sight for even a second.
Oh by the way, that Josh fellow won’t be the first Jewish president, as he isn’t anywhere nearly as radical as AOC the little fascistette will require of Democrat candidates over the next generation. That honor will go to Ivanka Trump.
…….A MESSAGE FROM MS. STEINBERG
Thank you for your repeated concern for my beloved husband
in regard to sharp objects.
I know you, too, must have high regard and respect for him.
PLEASE POST PICTURE.
In appreciation for your deep caring, I would like to bake a cake for you. 💙
Biden 368, Trump 170. Now you’re just embarrassing yourself.