State Senator Joe Pennacchio (R-26) could end up being the Phil Murphy of the 11th Congressional District.

Just as Murphy was a lot of people’s second choice during the 2016 pre-primary fight, and ended up squiggling through a canceled-out State Sweeney and Steve Fulop,. Pennacchio finds himself in the ring with slate mate Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-26) and Morris County Freeholder Christine Myers.

Now Webber and Myers – with the luggage of past rivalries arguably encumbering their candidacies – run the risk of canceling each other out; we outlined those dynamics outlined here.

In such an environment, Pennacchio may be best positioned to be the consensus choice – particularly if he can corral the critical support of Passaic and Essex counties.

Today, that appears more likely.

Newly elected state Senator Kristin Corrado (R-40) doesn’t want to run for the Congressional seat, according to sources. She’s close to Totowa strongman Peter Murphy, who’s close to Essex County Republican Committee Chairman Al Barlas, who appear to have forged n alliance – the same way they did last year to get Corrado past Bergen County Republican Committee Chairman Paul DiGaetano.

Barlas helped Passaic County’s Murphy get the senate seat for Corrado. Now Murphy can help Barlas land an Assembly seat in LD26.

If Pennacchio starts with a base of support in Morris in a three-way among himself, Myers and Webber, and lands the Passaic-Essex alliance (where unlike wild west Morris, there are actual organization lines), the senator will have his rivals in a squeeze play.

In such a scenario, he can bring Webber to heel with the promise of an endorsement for the LD26 senate seat in the event that Pennacchio – running in a Republican district – gets past Democratic challenger Mikie Sherrill.

Then Barlas – backed by Murphy, Pennacchio and Webber – can have his pick of an Essex person for the LD26 Assembly seat vacated by Senator Webber.

Now, it’s complicated.

Libertarian Senate candidate Murray Sabrin poked at Pennacchio’s underbelly in their 2008 Senate tilt, criticizing past writings by the senator that put Jersey Joe on wobbly political legs in a statewide showdown with establishment pick former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer.

There’s also the argument that 2018 is the year of the woman, and that the GOP’s best shot at holding off a surging Sherrill is to recruit a smart and well-prepared player like Myers. In 2015, the freeholder ran in a highly competitive countywide primary and more than held her own.

But as of this morning, if Pennacchio could prove how he can gut through the toughest arguments against him, Passaic and Essex were in the catbird seat – with Barlas in position to gain for a deal that leapfrogged Pennacchio to Congress and Webber to the Senate.