At the beginning of 2020, I made two predictions for the coming political season.

First, I predicted that former Vice President Joe Biden would win the Democratic presidential nomination and in November defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in landslide fashion, amassing over 400 electoral votes.

Second, I predicted that Amy Kennedy, wife of former US Congressman from Rhode Island Patrick Kennedy and daughter-in-law of the late Senator Ted Kennedy would win the Democratic primary on June 2 for the seat in the US House of Representatives for the Second District of New Jersey (CD-2).  At that time, I made no prediction regarding the outcome of the November 2020 general election for the seat, presently held by Democrat-turned-Republican Jeff Van Drew.

ï am now ready to predict the outcome of that district in the November election.  It is a virtual certainty that Trump’s grossly incompetent and shamelessly insensitive handling of both the health and economic aspects of the coronavirus crisis will cause a further widening of his popular vote deficit.  This will result in the forthcoming Biden landslide sweeping into the House of Representatives numerous Democratic underdog candidates – including Amy Kennedy.

When I made the two above predictions regarding Biden and Kennedy, they were greeted with derision by the Trenton cognoscenti, which specializes in the affirmation of hackneyed conventional wisdom. The lesson to be learned here is that the Trenton conventional wisdom isn’t very wise.

And now, there is a most interesting coincidence in the timing regarding the attainment of prohibitive favorite status by both Biden and Kennedy.

The overwhelming victory of Amy Kennedy at yesterday’s Atlantic County Democratic Convention, as I will explain herein below, has made her the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic Party. CD2 nomination. Simultaneously, Joe Biden will become the prohibitive Democratic presidential nominee favorite if he wins the Michigan primary tomorrow night.

Prior to yesterday’s upset Atlantic convention victory, I had personally observed Amy Kennedy campaign throughout CD2 and had become convinced of her inevitability. This became clear to me when I watched her speak to two types of audiences where the Kennedy name has virtually the same salience and powerful charismatic effect that it had at the time of the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy 57 years ago:  Senior Citizens and African-Americans.

I can pay personal tribute to the power the Kennedy name still has among today’s Senior Citizens.  We grew up as children and young adults during the era of John and Robert Kennedy.  I am a senior citizen myself, 70 years young.  For my generation, now ranging between the ages of 65 and 80, there has been no political name that had a greater impact on our daily lives than that of the Kennedys, John and Robert.

For African-Americans of all ages, there are no more revered white individuals, even six decades after their assassinations than John and Robert Kennedy.

Although the Civil Rights Acts of 1964 (public accommodations, jobs), 1965 (voting rights), and 1968 (housing) were all enacted after the assassination of President John Fitzgerald Kennedy on November 22, 1963, the African-American community will always give the credit for these measures to John and Robert Kennedy for having first proposed an omnibus measure in this regard after the March on Washington in August, 1963.

When I saw Amy Kennedy campaign in front of Senior Citizens and African-Americans, I witnessed her receiving a response, due to her status as a Kennedy, that I knew none of the other candidates would obtain.  Also, her status as a lifelong Atlantic County resident and the campaign skills she learned from her father, former Atlantic County Freeholder Jerry Savell, enhanced her recitation of her personal narrative.

It astounded me to read the forecasts of other pundits who minimized the impact of the Kennedy name, dismissing it with the observation that the Kennedys had last governed nearly 60 years ago.  I considered their ignoring the impact of the Kennedy name on African-American and Senior Citizen voters as journalistic malpractice at its worst, evidencing a total lack of historical perspective.

Furthermore, there is a major Biden-Kennedy connection of which I was just made aware by Amy Kennedy herself three weeks ago.

On February 19, I visited the home of Amy and Patrick Kennedy in Brigantine to discuss her campaign strategy and scheduled events which I could cover.  I asked Amy how she felt the current presidential primary might affect her own.

Amy stated to me unequivocally that there had been a longstanding strong relationship between the Biden and Kennedy families.  In fact, Amy contributed $2,800 to the Biden campaign as far back as April, 2019, as did Patrick.  Patrick’s stepmother, Vicki and his cousin, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg have both issued endorsements of Joe Biden.

What was remarkable about Amy’s pro-Biden statement was its timing.  She made the statement to me during a period when the Biden campaign was in a severe slump, right before the Nevada caucuses.

Given this undeniably strong relationship between the Bidens and the Kennedys, I fully expect that at some point prior to the November election, Biden will come into New Jersey and make a major point of boosting two Congressional candidates, Tom Malinowski, who formerly worked with Biden during the Obama administration, and Amy Kennedy. This should even further enhance Amy’s electability.

All this augured well for Amy Kennedy’s outlook and reinforced my belief in her likely ultimate primary and general election victory.  Still, I thought that the primary would be close between her and her major primary rival, Montclair State University Professor Brigid Harrison, given the support for her by South Jersey Democratic Boss George Norcross III, his major understudy State Senate President Steve Sweeney, and the endorsements of six of the eight Norcross-subordinate Democratic County chairs located in whole or in part within CD2.

To be sure, Atlantic County Chair Mike Suleiman remained neutral, to his credit, defying Norcross pressure.  Still, I thought that Norcross would be able to dominate the convention in Atlantic County as well, making it likely that Harrison would have the highly advantageous organizational line position in each of the counties within the district.

The overwhelming Kennedy victory yesterday at the Atlantic County Democratic Convention explodes the Harrison strategy.  In the aftermath of that victory. in the county with the most votes of any within the district, it is evident that going forward, Kennedy will have enormous advantages in the three essentials of any campaign:  Money, message, and yes, even in organization.

In terms of fundraising, Kennedy will have the support of the national Kennedy fundraising network, which will totally dwarf any effort that can be made by the vaunted Norcross fundraising apparatus, especially for a primary in which Norcross cannot deliver to donors afterwards patronage or contractual largesse.

The anti-bossism core message of the Kennedy campaign (translated; anti-George Norcross) is totally compelling at a time when Democratic Progressives are engaged in full political guerrilla warfare against the Norcross machine in virtually every town within the district  And this message is proving to be most successful in motivating a dedicated Army of Progressives in support of the Kennedy campaign.

This Army of Progressives was in evidence on Saturday night before the convention with the publication of a poll by the reputable Anzalone Liszt Grove Research group, showing Kennedy with a significant lead at this point in the contest.  The poll was commissioned by New Jersey Working Families Alliance, led by Sue Altman, a most highly effective Progressive activist who has proven to be the bane of the political existence of George Norcross III ever since she led to victory an insurgent slate in Collingswood of Camden County Democratic Committee members in the 2019 primary.

Indeed, it is the Army of Progressives in support of Amy Kennedy which for the first time in modern New Jersey political history has given an insurgent candidate an organizational advantage over the Norcross-endorsed candidate, particularly when it comes to election day get-out-the-vote ground game efforts.

The Kennedy Army of Progressives has as its most significant constituent the New Jersey chapter of the Communications Workers of America.  They will be very much in evidence in the field on primary election day June 2.

They will be out there as unpaid volunteers in the Kennedy Army of Progressives dedicated to the election of Amy Kennedy and the defeat of the Norcross machine.  By contrast, George Norcross will have deployed in the field his usual paid election day ground forces.

There is a scene in The Godfather, Part 2 that serves as an excellent metaphor in comparing the Kennedy Army of Progressives with the ground forces of George Norcross.

Michael Corleone is visiting pre-Castro Cuba in 1958.  He observes a Castroite rebel refusing to submit to an arrest and detonating a grenade, killing both himself and the arresting military Captain of the guard.

When Hyman Roth asks Michael what that tells him, he says, “The soldiers are paid to fight.  The rebels are not.  The rebels can win.”

Indeed, the political rebels in the Kennedy Army of Progressives are unpaid.  Their motivation is far more intense and enthusiastic than that of the paid Norcross veterans.  They will win.

The Kennedy triumph yesterday is further evidence of the ongoing decline and eventual likely political demise of George Norcross III over the past two years.  In view of the continuing Fall of the House of Norcross, one has to question whether Brigid Harrison will remain in the race, particularly when the viability and dominance of the Norcross machine is the core of her strategy.

Brigid Harrison is a person of outstanding academic eminence and respect, without a taint of scandal or ethical misstep.  She continues to have a well-deserved outstanding reputation as the leading academic authority on New Jersey politics and government.  Why should she allow her excellent New Jersey legacy to be reduced to that of a footnote in the decline and fall of the Norcross regime and machine?

George Norcross III has been viewed for nearly three decades as the Superman of South Jersey politics.  His defeat at yesterday’s Atlantic County Democratic Convention is clear and convincing evidence, however, that the political kryptonite administered to him by Amy Kennedy is having a most damaging impact.

Another major loser of the Atlantic County Democratic Convention is State Senate President Steve Sweeney.  As Norcross declines, so does Sweeney:  the fear factor is gone.  There are numerous rumors that Steve Sweeney will not run for reelection in 2021 but instead will seek a lucrative private sector position.  I believe these rumors will come to fruition.

There is another major winner to have emerged out of the Atlantic County Democratic Convention: New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy.  He continues to win every round in his political battle with George Norcross III, except this one he was able to win without lifting a finger.  If the Murphy-Norcross conflict was a boxing match, they would have to stop the fight and award Murphy a technical knockout.

As for Amy Kennedy herself, the following words, excerpted from Theodore H. White’s The Making of the President 1968, in describing John and Robert Kennedy are most instructive:

“Their call was to the heart; that is why people voted for them.”

Fifty years later, these words are applicable to Amy Kennedy as well.

Alan J. Steinberg served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.