Down through my years in New Jersey politics and government, both as a participant and columnist, I have had a well-justified reputation for departing from conventional wisdom.  In this gubernatorial campaign between incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy and Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli, conventional wisdom is present in annoying abundance.

Following my normal wont of departing from conventional wisdom, I have made two assertions that differ from what the New Jersey political “Wise Men and Women” are saying about this election

My first such assertion is that no matter how well Jack Ciattarelli does with undecided and independent voters, he cannot be competitive in this election unless he makes a significant incursion into Phil Murphy’s overwhelming lead among Democratic voters.

My second assertion is that the climate change issue is a significant dealbreaker for Democratic voters who may consider switching their vote from Phil Murphy to Jack Ciattarelli.  It is not the only such dealbreaker, but it is significant nonetheless.

As I have said in previous columns, there are currently one million more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.  As long as Phil Murphy continues to attract the support of 90 percent of New Jersey Democratic voters, as shown by the Monmouth Poll, it is numerically virtually impossible for Jack Ciattarelli to win.

The Ciattarelli campaign seems to be well aware of this.  It appears that they are making a major distinction between urban Democratic voters, who are overwhelmingly voters of color, and suburban Democrats, who are largely white.

Ciattarelli’s advisors are well aware of Murphy’s prohibitive lead among voters of color, particularly among African-Americans.  Donald Trump was by far the most unpopular president among voters of color since Woodrow Wilson.  Due to their nationwide voter suppression efforts, the Republican Party toxicity among voters of color is at an all-time high.

Jack Ciattarelli is not at all a racist or bigot.  Due to the twin albatrosses of Donald Trump and the Republican Party, however, any efforts on his part to win the votes of people of color are doomed to failure.  Accordingly, the hope of his campaign is that voters of color will not turn out to vote.

Instead, the Ciattarelli campaign has focused its attention on white, suburban Democratic voters.  The Ciattarelli strategy at the Tuesday, September 29 debate was for Jack to remove as many of these dealbreakers as possible.

It was a wise strategy, but Ciattarelli, who had a good debate in terms of style and presentation, failed to execute it.

There are various dealbreakers for Ciattarelli with suburban Democratic voters, including his participation at a “Stop-the-Steal” rally last November, his opposition to funding Planned Parenthood, his offense to the LGBTQ community when he inaccurately implied that the state was mandating the teaching of “sodomy” to sixth grade students, and his use of the “seven words,”, “Children are not vulnerable to this virus.”

On these issues, Ciattarelli did not say anything in the debate to worsen his situation with Democratic voters.  There is, however, another dealbreaker issue: On the issue of climate change, he made his relationship with Democratic voters far worse.

Climate change has been a particularly weak issue for the Republican gubernatorial candidate.  After experiencing the worst of Hurricane Ida during his ride home from a campaign event on September 1, Ciattarelli stated, “We’re experiencing something in regard to our climate.” I tweeted in response, “No kidding, Jack.  Just finding this out?  Where have you been?”

Now the members of the Trenton Insider Conventional Wisdom Club will dispute any notion that climate change is a voting issue, even for Democrats.  They could not be more wrong.

As both a former environmental official (formerly the Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA), I have been in a unique position to observe the evolution of both environmental policy and politics.

Prior to the first decade of this century, climate change was a “boutique” issue, of secondary importance to even mainstream Democratic voters, who acknowledged its reality but refused, by and large, to advocate urgent action. Most Republican voters embraced at best climate science skepticism and at worst, climate science denial.

All this began to change rapidly with the catastrophe of Hurricanes Katrina/Rita in 2005, whose damage in New Orleans and Mississippi I witnessed personally.  After this catastrophe, the position of mainstream Democratic voters overwhelmingly changed to advocacy of urgent action on the issue.

In terms of priority of this issue, the mainstream Democratic voter position also has changed dramatically.  In a Pew Poll announced on October 6, 2020, nearly seven-in-ten Biden voters said climate change is very important to their vote.

The mainstream Republican voter position has also changed, but it remains remarkably different from that of the Democrats.  Even in Red states, climate science skepticism and denial are no longer viable options for GOP candidates.  Republican candidates are cowed, however by the climate science denial of Donald Trump, and while not denying the reality of climate change, they continue to contend that urgent action to deal with it is not needed.

Climate change also continues to be a low priority issue with GOP voters.  The same poll stated that only 11% of Trump supporters said that climate change is very important to their vote. In fact, climate change ranked last in importance out of 12 issues for Trump supporters.

So in a nutshell, the Democratic and Republican positions on climate change are irreconcilable. The mainstream Democratic position is one of high priority regarding the climate change issue and urgency of action to deal with it.  The Republican position is one of assigning low priority to the issue and denial of the need for urgency of action.

And on September 3, the day after the worst of Hurricane Ida, Jack Ciattarelli firmly embraced the mainstream national GOP position on climate change at a campaign event in Brielle, with words that matched the political toxicity of his seven words on Covid:

“His (Murphy’s) entire energy policy is irrational; we need a rational transition. It’s too much, too soon, too fast.”

At this point, in denying urgency and priority to climate change action, Jack Ciattarelli’s position on the issue became a dealbreaker to Democrats who knew what he said and were considering changing their vote to him. At the debate on Tuesday, September 29, Phil Murphy made sure that Democrats throughout New Jersey knew the Ciattarelli position on climate change, with this stinging riposte:

“My opponent, when he was asked about our climate plan, said it’s too much, too soon, too fast.  We have to go as fast as we can, and we will.”

I often make analogies of political candidates to boxers.  Like Rocky Marciano of Brockton, Massachusetts, Phil Murphy grew up in suburban Boston.  And this debate riposte was reminiscent of the Marciano right cross that knocked out Jersey Joe Walcott to win the heavyweight championship of the world in Philadelphia on September 23, 1952.

It must be noted that the catastrophe of Hurricane Ida has made climate change a higher priority than ever among New Jersey Democratic voters.  And it makes Ciattarelli’s position on the issue even more offensive to them.

And it must also be said that Murphy’s position on climate change will make his record on Hurricane Ida a positive for him with the voters.  In the wake of the hurricane, New Jerseyans want two actions from their governor: 1) a program to deal with climate change; and 2) federal funding to recover from the damage.  And the governor came through in both respects.

With one month to go, barring a totally unexpected Murphy campaign disaster, Jack Ciattarelli’s defeat fate is irrevocable.  He cannot win without a massive improvement in his share of Democratic voters, and there are too many intractable dealbreakers in his positions for Democrats to consider voting for him.

The climate change dealbreaker, in the wake of Hurricane Ida, is in itself sufficient to ensure the rejection of Ciattarelli by the great majority of Democratic voters.  The late learned sage of Montclair, New Jersey, Lorenzo Pietro Berra a/k/a Yogi Berra once said, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” But for Jack Ciattarelli, it’s over.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.