Biden 14 points ahead in final Opinium and Guardian US poll

• 60% of those who voted for a third party candidate in 2016 voting for Biden in 2020
• Over half (57%) of likely 2020 voters who didn’t vote in 2016 also plan to show up for Biden
• One in ten (10%) 2016 Trump voters intend to switch their vote to Biden this year
• Almost nine out of ten (88%) Black voters and 68% of Latinx voters plan to vote for Biden

• Full data set available here

October 30, New York Opinium, the New York based polling agency, and The Guardian US have published their final national poll of the 2020 election¹. Joe Biden has a 14-point lead over Donald Trump, with Biden taking 55% of the popular vote and Donald Trump taking 41%.

Reasons for Biden’s lead: Swing vote and undecided voters

The poll suggests that Biden’s lead is a result of his ability to attract swing voters (those who consider themselves in the political ‘middle’ and don’t identify as Republicans or Democrats) as well as some of those who didn’t vote in 2016.

Three fifths (60%) of likely voters who voted for a candidate other than Trump or Clinton in 2016 and 56% of likely voters who consider themselves politically ‘neutral’ (neither Republicans nor Democrats) plan to vote for Biden this year.

A smaller percentage (10%) who voted for Trump in 2016 have switched their vote to support Biden this year. However, Trump has proved himself among some 2016 Democratic voters, with 5% of those who voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016 planning to vote for the Republican candidate this time around.

Positioned as a critical and polarized election, there are fewer undecided voters in 2020 than in 2016. Only 2% of voters are undecided three days before the election and only 2% of the electorate intend to vote for third party candidates².

The race gap in the election

The data also shows Trump has lost ground among white voters compared to 2016³.. This year, the white vote is split on their preferred candidate, though Biden narrowly leads. Nearly half (49%) of white voters intend to vote for Biden, while 47% intend to vote for Trump.

Minority voters are pulling for the Democratic ticket by similar margins as in 2016. Both parties have focused on attracting the Black vote, given the importance of the Black electorate to swing states such as Georgia, Texas and North Carolina. According to Opinium, almost nine in ten (88%) Black voters intend to vote for Biden, in line with how exit polls suggested Hillary Clinton performed among Black voters in 2016.

According to the poll, Latinx voters make up 16% of likely voters in 2020 and are expected to play a key role in swing states Florida and Arizona. Biden retains 68% of the national Latinx vote while Trump takes 28%.

Many Biden votes have already been cast

Biden’s lead also comes from those voting early and by mail. Among those voting by mail, 69% have or intend to vote for Biden compared to only 27% for Trump. Among those voting early at a polling place, Biden leads 55% to Trump’s 41%.

On election day, however, Trump will perform better. He has a 24-point lead among in person voters (60% vs 36%).

Biden beats Trump on Jobs (just) and Healthcare

Known as the Covid-19 election, healthcare is a top priority for voters – 44% think it is the most important issue. This is followed by the economy (36%) and unemployment/jobs (27%).

Voters are split on which candidate would handle the economy best – each candidate receives 40% of the vote. Biden wins narrowly on unemployment/jobs (42% vs 39%) but – crucially – his lead is bigger on healthcare (46% vs 33%), the most important issue for the public.

Opinium’s head of political research, Adam Drummond commented: “Donald Trump heads towards election day in the weakest position of any incumbent president since 1992. Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads the president by a double-digit margin in the popular vote with a stronger approval rating and is more trusted on most of the key issues. President Trump’s strongest card remains the economy on which he is tied with Joe Biden on 40% each. But not only does Biden lead on other elements of the economy such as unemployment/jobs, but voters put ‘healthcare’ above the economy when asked about the most important issues. In particular the handling of the Coronavirus pandemic has taken its toll on the Trump presidency, and prompted voters to look for alternative leadership in a crisis.”

1- Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,009 US adults aged 18+ from October 26th to 29th 2020. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria across various factors including age, gender, ethnicity, past vote, level of education, political affiliation, etc. This poll is intended to reflect the likely outcome of the popular vote, not the winning candidate of the presidential election overall as dictated by the Electoral College.

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

2 – This is compared to about 12% who weren’t committed to either Trump or Clinton in final national polls in 2016, according to https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gave-trump-a-better-chance-than-almost-anyone-else/

3 – In 2016 Trump emerged with about a 15 point lead among white voters, according to https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/

About Opinium, Inc.

New York and London based OPINIUM is an award-winning strategic insight agency built on the belief that in a world of uncertainty and complexity, success depends on the ability to stay on the pulse of what people think, feel and do. Creative and inquisitive, the Opinium team is passionate about empowering clients to make the decisions that matter. Opinium works with organizations to define and overcome strategic challenges – helping them to get to grips with the world in which their brands operate. It uses the right approach and methodology to deliver robust insights, strategic counsel and targeted recommendations that generate change and positive outcomes. Opinium’s consultants are experts in political, financial services, tech, industrial, healthcare and consumer packaged goods research.

Opinium – What People Think, Feel and Do. www.opinium.com