November 6, 2017 – Dem Has 12-Pt Likely Voter Lead In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men Divided As Women Back Murphy By 24 Points

PDF format
Additional Trend Information
Sample and Methodology detail

Big leads among women and non-white voters give Democrat Phil Murphy 53 – 41 percent lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 57 – 37 percent Murphy lead over Guadagno, in an October 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today’s result, women back the Democrat 60 – 36 percent while men are divided with 47 percent for Guadagno and 46 percent for Murphy. Non-white voters back the Democrat 66 – 24 percent. White voters are divided with 50 percent for Guadagno and 47 percent for Murphy.

Murphy leads 95 – 4 percent among Democrats. Republicans go to Guadagno 90 – 6 percent. Independent voters are split with 47 percent for Guadagno and 44 percent for Murphy.

“In blue New Jersey, a Republican who can’t solidly carry independent voters is a candidate unlikely to win a statewide election,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Lt Gov. Kim Guadagno is doing fine among Republicans, but is only breaking even among independents and that doesn’t appear nearly enough to offset Phil Murphy’s overwhelming edge among Democrats.”

From October 30 – November 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 662 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Phil Murphy the Democrat and Kim Guadagno the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Phil Murphy the Democrat or Kim Guadagno the Republican?

                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               53%     6%    95%    44%    46%    60%    52%    41%
Guadagno             41     90      4     47     47     36     45     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      3      1      9      6      4      2      4
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Murphy               39%    54%    47%    66%
Guadagno             58     43     50     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      3      3     10