Election Day Commentary from Prof. Ben Dworkin
The following is on-the-record commentary from: Professor Ben Dworkin, Director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship (RIPPAC) at Rowan University in Glassboro, NJ.
PART I
Not a Normal Year
Five of New Jersey’s 12 congressional seats are currently held by Republicans. In no normal year would 4 of the 5 be competitive. But that is exactly what is happening. This year is no normal year.
The Polarizing Presidency of Donald Trump
President Trump’s polarizing presidency has inspired countless numbers of New Jerseyans to become more engaged in politics, especially on the Democratic side. Campaigns have continuously reported that never-before-involved people are entering the political game. These new volunteers are bringing their enthusiasm and it is inspiring the veterans who were already in the trenches.
Trump is a Factor, Not the Issue
As much as Trump is a factor, he’s not the issue in these battleground races in New Jersey. He is a motivating force, inspiring people on both sides of the aisle. But the issues in these contested contests are much more personal, including health care, taxes, infrastructure, and immigration.
These are the issues that voters care about and want to talk about in 2018, not Trump.
This is one reason why the topic of Russia and the Mueller investigation has been left on the sidelines this campaign season. Trump is not the issue that people care about. Trump is a factor in making people pay attention and then getting involved.
Blue Wave vs. Red Retreat
In 2017, when Phil Murphy and the Democrats won a sweeping victory, media reports were filled with the notion that it was a “blue wave” – a sudden surge in Democrats coming to the polls right here in New Jersey.
They were mobilized by their anger towards Trump and even more so at the time, their anger towards Chris Christie.
The more interesting fact about the 2017 election was the failure of Republicans to turn out.
If you look at the 5 gubernatorial elections between 1997 and 2013, Democrats and Republicans each averaged 1.1 million votes each election.
If you compare those averages – that is, what we expected the Democratic and Republican votes to be in the 2017 gubernatorial year – with what actually happened in 2017, we see that there was, indeed, a 10% bump in Democratic votes.
Certainly, a 10% surge is not nothing. But Republican votes in 2017 dropped nearly 20% from the historical average.
This was not a “blue wave” as much as a “red retreat.” In the New Jersey gubernatorial election if 2017, one out of 5 expected Republicans didn’t bother to vote at all.
If GOP partisans stay home again in 2018, it will have a greater impact on the final outcome than whatever “blue wave” is coming.
The Kavanaugh hearings went far in closing this gap, as it mobilized and motivated what had been a somewhat unemotional Republican base.
But President Trump’s response to more recent events – the pipe bombs and the massacre at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh – may well, in a state like New Jersey where the president is already very unpopular – reduce the drive to vote by state Republicans, thereby expanding the net effect of Democratic enthusiasm and mobilization.
New Jersey is Not a Deck of Cards
One of the fundamental dynamics in the US Senate race in New Jersey is the playing field. Republican challenger Bob Hugin has expended over $35 million in his effort, mostly negative ads against incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Menendez. The Democrats will, in the end, be far outspent in the campaign.
And yet, one of the fascinating things about this campaign season is that Menendez, despite being outspent to heavily, has led in every public poll.
This is because the electorate in New Jersey isn’t built like a deck of cards, with an even number of black and red cards. New Jersey voters are Democratic and have been increasingly so in recent years.
In 2007, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by 290,000. Today, 11 years later, Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Jersey by 930,000. It’s just not a level playing field.
In other words, in just over a decade, Democrats have tripled their voter registration advantage. The challenge for any GOP statewide candidate, including Hugin, is to peel off a whole bunch of these partisan folks, or hope that they don’t come out to vote.
The Menendez path to victory is pretty straightforward: Get the numerically superior Democrats to vote.
But What about Unaffiliated Voters?
In New Jersey, you don’t have to align yourself with a party when you register. These registered voters are called Unaffiliated (not Independent) voters. Historically, the number of Unaffiliated voters dwarfs those registered to either party.
But it would be a mistake to think of Unaffiliated votes as swing voters. Many of them are partisans who vote consistently for one party of the either, but simply haven’t voted in a primary, or otherwise checked off the box on the registration form to be officially aligned as a Democrat or Republican.
Thus, as we’ve seen the number registered partisans increase, it would make sense to believe that it was just a matter of Unaffiliated voters becoming “affiliated voters” in accordance with their voting histories. In theory, we should have seen large numbers of Unaffiliated voters move to the Democrat or Republican columns on the voter registration rolls.
But we didn’t.
In fact, New Jersey has virtually the same number of Unaffiliated voters in 2018 as it did in 2009.
2,394,289 Unaffiliated voters in NJ in 2018.
2,394,138 Unaffiliated voters in NJ in 2009.
So, New Jersey hasn’t really seen a re-sorting of voters, but rather the state’s electorate, which was already blue, has gotten bluer.
PART II
Key Factors in Key House Races – Overall
What is amazing about 2018 is that these races are competitive in the first place. New Jersey’s congressional districts were gerrymandered to protect those Republican incumbents.
The fact that 4 out of 5 GOP-held seats are up for grabs is a testament to the Trump Factor and the volatility of the current electorate.
Key Factors in Key House Races – NJ-2 Van Drew vs. Grossman
“Candidates matter.”
In New Jersey’s 2nd congressional district, incumbent moderate Republican Frank LoBiondo is retiring. This open seat was a top priority for Democrats and they put forward their strongest possible candidate – state Senator Jeff Van Drew. A conservative Democrat by Trenton standards, he has outraised and out-organized his opponent, conservative Republican Seth Grossman.
Grossman, due to several controversial comments in public and on social media, has largely alienated the state and national Republican party.
Democrats need 23 seats to flip control of the House. It is widely expected that they will pick up one right here.
Key Factors in Key House Races – NJ-3 Kim vs. MacArthur
“A Tale of Two Counties.”
The 3rd congressional district is unique in the country. The eastern part of the district, largely encompassing Ocean County, is in the New York television market. The western part of the district is Burlington County, where they watch Philadelphia television.
As New York is the #1 most expensive media market in the country and Philadelphia is the 4th most expensive, running campaign commercials on network TV here is more expensive than anywhere else in the nation. You can’t reach everyone unless you are on both New York and Philadelphia TV and that is just really expensive.
Both candidates have raised significant money. In fact, Democratic challenger Andy Kim has outraised incumbent Republican Tom MacArthur, though MacArthur – a former insurance executive – has significant personal resources and has been putting large amounts of his own money into the race in the last few weeks.
Over the last two decades, Burlington County has seen significant Democratic growth. Since 1998, registered Democrats have gone from 23% of all county voters to 37% today.
The challenge for Kim is that, historically, there is significant drop-off in Democratic voter turnout from Burlington County in midterm elections, as compared to presidential years.
In the last three presidential elections, Democrats received an average of 126,440 votes out of Burlington County. But in the last three midterm election, Burlington County Democrats delivered half that – 62,701 votes on average.
If Kim is to have a chance, he needs the Trump Factor to motivate Burlington County voters to show up at a level closer to presidential year numbers.
Ocean County is a very different story. This is a very Republican area. To the degree that pro-Trump voters are congregated anywhere in this state, it is in Ocean County.
MacArthur threw himself into the legislative mix in Washington and brokered a deal to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (legislation that passed the House but didn’t pass the Senate) and was the only member of the New Jersey delegation to vote for the Trump tax reform package.
It is the health care legislation that has been a point of contention in this race. Ocean County might have lots of Trump supporters, but it also has more senior citizens than any other county in New Jersey. They, and others, appear to be have some serious concerns about MacArthur’s health care vote.
So, in the end, this is a tale of the two counties that make up this district. In Burlington, we are watching for a possible Democratic surge, and in Ocean, we are looking to see if the health care vote will keep MacArthur under the 60% threshold that he would ordinarily expect to see.
Key Factors in Key House Races – NJ-7 Malinowski vs. Lance
“How Good Is Your Field Goal Unit?”
In New Jersey’s 7th congressional race, most observers expect a nail biter of an election between incumbent Republican Leonard Lance and Democratic challenger Tom Malinowski.
Lance developed a sterling reputation as a state legislator in Trenton and cultivated an image of a patrician gentleman, the quintessential moderate Republican. Since going to Washington, that reputation has taken a bit of a beating, in part because the national Republican party has moved to the right and in part because Lance has had to fend off primary challenges from more conservative party members.
The Trump Factor has given an opportunity to Malinowski, despite registered Republicans outnumbering registered Democrats in the district by more than 7,000, to eke out a win.
This race, according to many observers, will come down to the field operation, the part of the campaign that identifies supporters, calls them, knocks on their doors, and gets them to the polls.
It’s been said that the field operation is like a field goal unit on a football team. Usually, you win without them, but when the game is close, you can’t afford to not have them do their job well.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see this district decided by a field goal or less. It’s going to be a battle of field operations.
Key Factors in Key House Races – NJ-11 Sherrill vs. Webber
“No One is Listening to Me!”
My friend Patrick Murray, the head of the Monmouth Poll, and I were on a panel recently and Patrick suggested that after 2016, analysts started giving more attention to rural and exurban voters in the Midwest – “the flyover states” – who supported Trump. These voters told pollsters and others that they voted for Trump, in part, because “no one was listening to me.”
In 2018, he posited that between Trump and Kavanaugh, there is a new segment of the electorate that is highly motivated because “no one is listening to me”: Women.
That dynamic may well be what’s having the biggest impact on the race in the 11th congressional district, where the incumbent, Republican Cong. Rodney Frelinghuysen, is retiring.
The Democratic challenger Mikie Sherrill is a lacrosse mom, a former federal prosecutor, and used to fly helicopters for the Navy.
As a first-time candidate, she has struck a chord with voters and public polling has shown her with a small but steady lead over her opponent, Republican Assemblyman and former state party chairman, Jay Webber.
This is a very Republican district, based largely in Morris County – an area so red that Democratic political operatives would joke that the state’s constitution mandated it only elect Republicans.
But, in fact, newer voters have started moving into the area and they don’t share all of the area’s previous political traditions.
Sherrill – as a woman and a Democrat – may well personify what the highly educated, suburban voters in this district want in their congressional representative this year.
Webber – as a male Republican – would be expected to walk away with this district in any normal year, but as I’ve said before, this is no ordinary year.
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