FDU POLL: BIDEN’S PROJECTED WIN IN NJ DRIVEN MORE BY DISTASTE FOR TRUMP THAN STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE
President Trump is headed for a decisive defeat in New Jersey, and those who support his opponent are motivated more by animus for the president than they are by support for former vice-president Joe Biden. This and other findings from the most recent statewide survey by the Fairleigh Dickinson Poll of New Jersey adults provides a preview of what can be expected on Election Day.
New Jersey is staying true to its solidly blue hue. Joe Biden is favored over the president by double digits. Among likely voters, the divide is 15 percentage points (53% to 38%), with similar numbers among registered voters (52% to 35%). Support for Biden exceeds that for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election. In early October of 2016, Clinton enjoyed an eleven-point edge over Trump (51% to 40%). She would go on to win the state with a bigger margin (56% to 41%).
Biden and Harris are also doing better among women and younger voters relative to the Democratic ticket in 2016. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton attracted the support of 54 percent of female likely voters, while the Biden/Harris ticket is favored by 62 percent of women who intend to vote, more than twice those supporting Trump (30%). In 2016, female voters favored Clinton over Trump by a narrower but still sizable margin (54% to 35%). Younger voters (18-34) are also showing a greater preference for the current democratic ticket compared to 2016. Six-in-ten (61%) support Biden/Harris while less than half favored Clinton four years ago. Men, on the other hand, have changed little in their party preference since 2016 and are basically split down the middle, with 46 percent supporting Trump and 44 percent in favor of Biden.
“New Jersey remains a very dependable blue state and what is clear from this survey is that in 2020 it’s moved even further into that dark blue zone, with Trump losing ground among voters since the last election,” said Krista Jenkins, the FDU poll director and professor of politics and government at Fairleigh Dickinson University.
Trump Inspires Voters, Both For and Against Him
Trump voters are motivated by their enthusiasm for their candidate rather than their opposition to Joe Biden, but the opposite is not true for Biden voters. When asked if one’s vote is driven more by support for the chosen candidate or opposition to the other candidate, Trump voters embrace their candidate more than Biden voters. Eighty-one percent of Trump voters say their vote is driven more by support for him than opposition to Biden (15%). Conversely, nearly half of Biden voters (47%) are casting votes for him as a vote against Trump.
“Perhaps a Republican ticket would be faring better even in New Jersey if the nominee didn’t engender so much animus. It’s not that New Jersey Democrats love their candidate. With only half of all likely voters who support Biden being motivated by genuine affection for their candidate, to many Biden is a proxy for an ‘Anything But Trump’ candidate,” said Jenkins.
To Mail or Not to Mail
As for how people are likely to vote in the presidential election, not everyone is embracing the mail-in option. Forty-nine percent of likely voters say they will drop their ballot in the mail. Slightly fewer say they intend to vote in person (43%). The numbers are similar among registered voters (42% in person; 48% mail). The likely voters most inclined to make the trek to their polling place are Republicans (52%), men (53%), and voters under the age of 55 (47% 18-34; 48% 35-54).
Trump voters are significantly more likely to say they will vote in person. Over half (53%) plan on going to their polling place on Election Day, as compared with 40 percent who will cast a vote by mail. The reverse is true for Biden voters. Fifty-nine percent are voting remotely while a third (35%) will head to the polls.
Opinion is divided over the safety of universal vote by mail, a voting system being used for the first time in New Jersey. Half of all likely voters believe mail-in voting is a safe and secure way of casting a vote (51%); 42 percent are more skeptical and think it is difficult to protect the process from fraud. The numbers are almost identical among registered voters (50% and 42%).
A significant divide separates the parties on this question. Three-quarters of Republicans believe mail-in voting is susceptible to fraud (74%). Virtually the same number of Democrats believe the opposite and trust the safety and security of ballots cast by mail (75%). More independents trust rather than distrust voting by mail, but to a lesser extent than democrats (48% versus 40%).
“Raising doubts about the legitimacy of voting by mail has been a Trump and Republican talking point for months. The only ones who appear to be listening are Republican voters, however, as even independents are more apt to trust than distrust the votes cast by mail,” said Jenkins.
Smoke has Cleared on Marijuana Legalization Question
The same survey finds that marijuana reform is likely to pass in the Garden State. When asked if voters will vote yes or no to the proposed amendment to the state’s constitution that would legalize recreational marijuana for adults 21 and older, as well as legalize the cultivation, processing, and sale of retail marijuana, likely voters say they will voice their support by a ratio of two-to-one. Sixty-one percent of likely voters intend to vote yes (or have voted yes among those who have already cast their ballot), with 29 percent who will vote or have voted no. The biggest supporters of marijuana legalization include Democrats (71%), men (66%), and 18-34 year-olds (77%). It is notable that across a variety of demographic groups, the majority sentiment favors the proposed amendment’s passage.
“Public opinion on this issue has evolved considerably. Just a few years ago, in 2018, we asked about recreational marijuana legalization and found support that was well beneath a majority, let alone anything that approached the support we’re seeing today. Back then, 42 percent support what is being proposed today. The legislative maneuver to give voters the say looks like it will wind up with a decisive pro-pot outcome,” said Jenkins.
###
Methodology
The survey was conducted by live callers on both landlines and cellular phones between September 30 through October 5, 2020 with a scientifically selected random sample of 846 New Jersey adults, 18 or older, including 736 registered voters and 582 likely voters. Persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult currently available. The interview was conducted in English and included 196 adults reached on a landline phone and 650 adults reached on a cell phone, all acquired through random digit dialing.
The data were weighted to be representative of the non-institutionalized adult population of New Jersey. The weighting balanced sample demographics to target population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and phone use. The sex, age, education, race/ethnicity and region parameters were derived from 2018 American Community Survey PUMS data. The phone use parameter was derived from estimates provided by the National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program.[1]
Weighting was done in two stages. The first stage of weighting corrected for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each household and each respondent’s telephone usage patterns. This adjustment also accounts for the overlapping landline and cell sample frames and the relative sizes of each frame and each sample. This first stage weight was applied to the entire sample which included all adults.
The second stage of the weighting balanced sample demographics to match target population benchmarks. This weighting was accomplished using SPSSINC RAKE, an SPSS extension module that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables using the GENLOG procedure. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population.
Effects of Sample Design on Statistical Analysis
Post-data collection statistical adjustments require analysis procedures that reflect departures from simple random sampling. We calculate the effects of these design features so that an appropriate adjustment can be incorporated into tests of statistical significance when using these data. The so-called “design effect” or deff represents the loss in statistical efficiency that results from a disproportionate sample design and systematic non-response. The total sample design effect for this study is 1.28.[2]
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 846 New Jersey adults is +/-3.8 percentage points (including the design effect) at a 95 percent confidence interval. Among registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 4.1 and among likely voters the margin of error is +/- 4.6, both including design effects.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.
This telephone survey was fielded by Braun Research, Inc. with sample from SSI. The research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.
Weighted Telephone Sample Characteristics
Registered Likely voters
Male 47% (328) 49% (269)
Female 53% (408) 51% (313)
18-34 24% (187) 24% (148)
35-54 35% (267) 36% (217)
55+ 41% (281) 41% 216)
Democrat (with leaners) 46% (336) 46% (268)
Independent 21% (136) 17% (93)
Republican (with leaners) 34% (255) 37% (215)
White 61% (508) 63% (410)
Black 10% (63) 9% (45)
Hispanic 18% (91) 18% (73)
Other 11% (61) 11% (45)
HS or less 27% (121) 24% (84)
Some college 30% (216) 30% (167)
College 43% (397) 46% (329)
Question wording and order:
PE1 Are you currently registered to vote at this address? [If yes, ask pe2; otherwise skip to
NJ1]
1 Yes
2 No
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE2 How closely are you following the 2020 presidential race?
1 Very closely
2 Somewhat closely
3 Not so closely
4 Not closely at all
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE3 I’d like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election this fall: Are you absolutely certain you will vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50/50, are they less than that, or have you already voted?
1 Certain to vote
2 Will probably vote
3 Chances 50-50
4 Less than that
5 Already voted [Skip PE4 and ask PE5]
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE4 Do you think you’ll vote in person at a polling place on Election Day or will you vote early by mail? [Rotate order of choices]
1 In person
2 Mail
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE5 If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans) or (Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Democrats)? [If undecided, would you lean toward (Trump and Pence) or (Biden and Harris)]? [Rotate candidate names]
1 Trump/Pence [Ask PE6R]
2 Biden/Harris [Ask PE6D]
3 Someone else (vol)
8 Undecided (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE6R Would you say your vote is driven more by support for Donald Trump or opposition to Joe Biden?
1 Support for Trump
2 Opposition to Biden
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE6D Would you say your vote is driven more by support for Joe Biden or opposition to Donald Trump?
1 Support for Biden
2 Opposition to Trump
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE7 The November ballot includes a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution that would legalize recreational use of marijuana for adults 21 and older, and legalize the cultivation, processing, and sale of retail marijuana. If the election were today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? [Rotate options] [If undecided, would you lean toward a yes or no vote?
1 Yes
2 No
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
PE8 Do you think mail-in voting is difficult to protect from fraud or is it a safe and secure way
of casting votes? [Rotate]
1 Hard to protect
2 Safe and secure
8 DK (vol)
9 Refused (vol)
Tables [percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding]
| Are you currently registered to vote at this address? | ||||||||||||||||||
| All | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | ||||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | |||
| Yes | 86% | 87% | 75% | 91% | 84% | 87% | 78% | 85% | 92% | 90% | 80% | 79% | 85% | 91% | 86% | 84% | 87% | |
| No | 12% | 11% | 20% | 7% | 13% | 11% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 9% | 16% | 17% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 12% | |
| Don’t know (vol) | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | |
| Refused (vol) | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | |
| Unweight N | 846 | 378 | 178 | 278 | 379 | 467 | 235 | 306 | 304 | 562 | 269 | 154 | 251 | 439 | 345 | 268 | 233 | |
| How closely are you following the 2020 presidential race? [Registered voters only] | |||||||||||||||||
| All | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Very closely | 58% | 62% | 46% | 60% | 67% | 50% | 41% | 61% | 65% | 61% | 54% | 45% | 56% | 68% | 55% | 67% | 54% |
| Somewhat closely | 29% | 28% | 28% | 30% | 25% | 32% | 44% | 25% | 23% | 27% | 31% | 34% | 31% | 23% | 29% | 24% | 33% |
| Not so closely | 7% | 6% | 15% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 8% |
| Not closely at all | 5% | 4% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 3% |
| Don’t know (vol) | 1% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Refused (vol) | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Unweight N | 736 | 336 | 136 | 255 | 328 | 408 | 187 | 267 | 281 | 508 | 215 | 121 | 216 | 397 | 305 | 227 | 204 |
| I’d like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election this fall: Are you absolutely certain you will vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50/50, are they less than that, or have you already voted? [Registered voters only] | |||||||||||||||||
| All | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Certain to vote | 77% | 79% | 64% | 80% | 77% | 76% | 65% | 79% | 81% | 78% | 73% | 66% | 76% | 84% | 73% | 79% | 78% |
| Will probably vote | 9% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 17% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 8% | 15% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Chances 50/50 | 6% | 4% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 7% |
| Less than that | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Already voted | 7% | 9% | 8% | 2% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 4% |
| Don’t know (vol) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Refused (vol) | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Unweight N | 736 | 336 | 136 | 255 | 328 | 408 | 187 | 267 | 281 | 508 | 215 | 121 | 216 | 397 | 305 | 227 | 204 |
| Do you think you will vote in person at a polling place on Election Day or will you vote early by mail? [Registered voters and those who have not voted early] | |||||||||||||||||
| Registered voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| In person | 42% | 35% | 40% | 53% | 52% | 34% | 46% | 46% | 37% | 40% | 46% | 45% | 42% | 41% | 42% | 41% | 44% |
| 48% | 57% | 48% | 38% | 42% | 53% | 45% | 46% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 42% | 50% | 51% | 49% | 47% | 48% | |
| Don’t know (vol) | 9% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% |
| Refused (vol) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Unweight N | 684 | 301 | 126 | 248 | 302 | 382 | 182 | 253 | 248 | 470 | 202 | 115 | 198 | 369 | 285 | 206 | 193 |
| Do you think you will vote in person at a polling place on Election Day or will you vote early by mail? [Registered voters] | |||||||||||||||||
| Likely voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| In person | 43% | 35% | 42% | 52% | 53% | 33% | 47% | 48% | 36% | 39% | 49% | 46% | 43% | 41% | 43% | 42% | 44% |
| 49% | 57% | 49% | 40% | 42% | 56% | 46% | 46% | 53% | 50% | 46% | 39% | 51% | 53% | 50% | 47% | 50% | |
| Don’t know (vol) | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 10% | 4% | 14% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 7% |
| Refused (vol) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Unweight N | 582 | 268 | 93 | 215 | 269 | 313 | 148 | 217 | 216 | 410 | 163 | 84 | 167 | 329 | 237 | 185 | 160 |
| If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans) or (Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Democrats)? [If undecided, would you lean toward (Trump and Pence) or (Biden and Harris)]? [Rotate candidate names] | |||||||||||||||||
| Registered voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Trump/Pence with leaners | 35% | 3% | 27% | 84% | 43% | 28% | 26% | 44% | 33% | 45% | 19% | 31% | 37% | 37% | 33% | 36% | 37% |
| Biden/Harris with leaners | 52% | 90% | 43% | 10% | 46% | 59% | 57% | 46% | 55% | 44% | 67% | 53% | 50% | 54% | 56% | 53% | 48% |
| Someone else (vol) | 2% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| Undecided (vol) | 7% | 5% | 16% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 8% |
| Refused (vol) | 4% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6% |
| Unweight N | 736 | 336 | 136 | 255 | 328 | 408 | 187 | 267 | 281 | 508 | 215 | 121 | 216 | 397 | 305 | 227 | 204 |
| If the presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans) or (Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Democrats)? [If undecided, would you lean toward (Trump and Pence) or (Biden and Harris)]? [Rotate candidate names] | |||||||||||||||||
| Likely voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Trump/Pence with leaners | 38% | 3% | 29% | 86% | 46% | 30% | 28% | 45% | 37% | 48% | 19% | 34% | 38% | 39% | 38% | 37% | 39% |
| Biden/Harris with leaners | 53% | 91% | 50% | 8% | 44% | 62% | 61% | 49% | 51% | 44% | 69% | 53% | 52% | 54% | 56% | 53% | 49% |
| Someone else (vol) | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| Undecided (vol) | 4% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% |
| Refused (vol) | 4% | 1% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| Unweight N | 582 | 268 | 93 | 215 | 269 | 313 | 148 | 217 | 216 | 410 | 163 | 84 | 167 | 329 | 237 | 185 | 160 |
| Would you say your vote is driven more by support for Donald Trump or opposition to Joe Biden? [Asked of Trump/Pence supporters and leaners] | |||||||||||||||||
| Registered voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Support for Trump | 79% | 79% | 80% | 79% | 82% | 75% | 58% | 82% | 85% | 76% | 86% | 80% | 76% | 81% | 79% | 81% | 77% |
| Opposition to Biden | 18% | 5% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 33% | 16% | 12% | 20% | 11% | 12% | 22% | 17% | 15% | 19% | 19% |
| DK (vol) | 2% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| Refused (vol) | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Unweight N | 264 | 10 | 36 | 216 | 148 | 116 | 49 | 118 | 97 | 217 | 41 | 38 | 80 | 146 | 108 | 80 | 76 |
| Would you say your vote is driven more by support for Donald Trump or opposition to Joe Biden? [Asked of Trump/Pence supporters and leaners] | |||||||||||||||||
| Likely voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Support for Trump | 81% | 71% | 90% | 80% | 86% | 75% | 53% | 85% | 89% | 80% | 87% | 82% | 79% | 83% | 82% | 85% | 77% |
| Opposition to Biden | 15% | 7% | 5% | 17% | 14% | 16% | 35% | 13% | 8% | 16% | 9% | 9% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 15% | 18% |
| DK (vol) | 3% | 22% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 0% | 1% |
| Refused (vol) | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Unweight N | 223 | 8 | 27 | 186 | 129 | 94 | 38 | 101 | 84 | 187 | 32 | 28 | 66 | 129 | 90 | 68 | 65 |
| Would you say your vote is driven more by support for Joe Biden or opposition to Donald Trump? [Asked of Biden/Harris supporters and leaners] | |||||||||||||||||
| Registered voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Support for Biden | 51% | 56% | 39% | 23% | 49% | 53% | 47% | 56% | 50% | 43% | 59% | 57% | 50% | 48% | 55% | 51% | 44% |
| Opposition to Trump | 45% | 41% | 60% | 61% | 47% | 44% | 51% | 41% | 45% | 53% | 38% | 41% | 45% | 48% | 42% | 44% | 53% |
| DK (vol) | 2% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% |
| Refused (vol) | 1% | 1% | 0% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| Unweight N | 387 | 305 | 60 | 22 | 146 | 241 | 110 | 123 | 153 | 236 | 147 | 63 | 109 | 215 | 164 | 122 | 101 |
| Would you say your vote is driven more by support for Joe Biden or opposition to Donald Trump? [Asked of Biden/Harris supporters and leaners] | |||||||||||||||||
| Likely voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Support for Biden | 50% | 56% | 30% | 14% | 49% | 51% | 44% | 56% | 49% | 43% | 57% | 51% | 49% | 50% | 56% | 49% | 42% |
| Opposition to Trump | 47% | 41% | 70% | 69% | 47% | 47% | 56% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 39% | 46% | 49% | 46% | 42% | 45% | 56% |
| DK (vol) | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 0% |
| Refused (vol) | 2% | 1% | 0% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Unweight N | 309 | 247 | 46 | 16 | 115 | 194 | 94 | 104 | 110 | 190 | 116 | 45 | 87 | 177 | 131 | 100 | 78 |
| The November ballot includes a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution that would legalize recreational use of marijuana for adults 21 and older, and legalize the cultivation, processing, and sale of retail marijuana. If the election were today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? [Rotate options] [If undecided, would you lean toward a yes or no vote? | |||||||||||||||||
| Registered
voters |
Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Yes | 59% | 69% | 54% | 51% | 64% | 55% | 74% | 63% | 48% | 62% | 58% | 57% | 61% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 59% |
| No | 30% | 22% | 29% | 41% | 29% | 30% | 9% | 29% | 42% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 28% | 32% | 31% | 31% | 27% |
| DK (vol) | 11% | 9% | 16% | 7% | 6% | 15% | 16% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 7% | 14% |
| Refused (vol) | 0 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Unweight N | 736 | 336 | 136 | 255 | 328 | 408 | 187 | 267 | 281 | 508 | 215 | 121 | 216 | 397 | 305 | 227 | 204 |
| The November ballot includes a proposed amendment to the state’s constitution that would legalize recreational use of marijuana for adults 21 and older, and legalize the cultivation, processing, and sale of retail marijuana. If the election were today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? [Rotate options] [If undecided, would you lean toward a yes or no vote? | |||||||||||||||||
| Likely voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Yes | 61% | 71% | 57% | 52% | 66% | 57% | 77% | 63% | 51% | 64% | 58% | 64% | 59% | 61% | 60% | 63% | 61% |
| No | 29% | 20% | 29% | 40% | 27% | 30% | 9% | 29% | 40% | 28% | 29% | 22% | 31% | 31% | 28% | 31% | 28% |
| DK (vol) | 10% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 6% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 11% |
| Refused (vol) | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Unweight N | 582 | 268 | 93 | 215 | 269 | 313 | 148 | 217 | 216 | 410 | 163 | 84 | 167 | 329 | 237 | 185 | 160 |
| Do you think mail-in voting is difficult to protect from fraud or is it a safe and secure way of casting votes? [Rotate] | |||||||||||||||||
| Registered voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Hard to protect | 42% | 21% | 40% | 72% | 43% | 42% | 40% | 45% | 41% | 46% | 36% | 45% | 47% | 37% | 40% | 46% | 42% |
| Safe and secure | 50% | 72% | 48% | 21% | 50% | 49% | 51% | 46% | 52% | 45% | 57% | 46% | 47% | 54% | 50% | 48% | 50% |
| DK (vol) | 8% | 7% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 8% |
| Refused (vol) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Unweight N | 736 | 336 | 136 | 255 | 328 | 408 | 187 | 267 | 281 | 508 | 215 | 121 | 216 | 397 | 305 | 227 | 204 |
| Do you think mail-in voting is difficult to protect from fraud or is it a safe and secure way of casting votes? [Rotate] | |||||||||||||||||
| Likely voters | Party ID | Gender | Age | Race/Eth | Education | Region | |||||||||||
| D | I | R | M | F | 18-34 | 35-54 | 55+ | White Non-Hisp | Non-white | HS or less | Some coll | Coll. grad | North | Central | South | ||
| Hard to protect | 42% | 19% | 38% | 74% | 44% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 45% | 47% | 33% | 44% | 46% | 38% | 39% | 45% | 42% |
| Safe and secure | 51% | 75% | 52% | 21% | 50% | 53% | 53% | 50% | 51% | 46% | 61% | 48% | 49% | 54% | 52% | 49% | 52% |
| DK (vol) | 7% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 5% |
| Refused (vol) | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| UnweightN | 582 | 268 | 93 | 215 | 269 | 313 | 148 | 217 | 216 | 410 | 163 | 84 | 167 | 329 | 237 | 185 | 160 |
