Going to the City?

NYC AND PHILLY A SAFER BET, ACCORDING TO GARDEN STATERS

Fairleigh Dickinson University, June 1, 2018 – For the third time since the Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll began asking about perceptions of safety in major tristate cities, New Jersey comes up short. Manhattan and Philadelphia trump Atlantic City, Trenton, Newark and Camden in the eyes of New Jersey adults.

By far, New York City puts visitors at ease, with 79 percent who say they feel very or somewhat safe in the Big Apple. Almost a third (29%) say they feel very safe. Behind Manhattan is Philadelphia. Two-thirds (65%) express feelings of safety in the City of Brotherly Love. Atlantic City, Newark, Trenton and Camden are behind with fewer saying they would not fear for their safety while spending time in these New Jersey marquee cities.

“Suburbs are fading in popularity with more homeowners wanting proximity to a city and its amenities. New Jersey certainly doesn’t lack for city living opportunities, but some of our bigger cities need to do a better job in convincing people that their safety is secure,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of the poll.

The poll asked about these cities twice previously in 2011 and 2014. Nothing has changed significantly, with the exception of a slight decrease in perceptions of public safety for Atlantic City.

“Recent FBI crime data points to an overall reduction in violent crime in New Jersey. This continues a trend that began in 2012, with the most recent data covering crimes through 2016. Regardless of the overall improvement, perceptions of safety in some of New Jersey’s cities remain largely unchanged,” said Jenkins.

Despite public safety perceptions, significant development is taking place in New Jersey’s cities, with a two billion dollar investment in Newark’s redevelopment, and a venture capital fund has been started to grow a portfolio of startups. Major companies including Whole Foods, Starbucks and Nike now have a presence in Newark, and the candy giant Mars is headed there as well. In Atlantic City, two new casinos are opening in June, and the recent Supreme Court decision legalizing sports betting is sure to help the struggling area. And in Camden, the police department is taking significant steps to improve public safety and redevelopment is on the rise.

Where you live plays a role in how you perceive city life. For example, although a majority of those in the central and southern parts of the state evaluate Camden poorly, significantly more of these residents give the city higher marks for safety than those who live further away (urban core, northeast, northwest). Conversely, those in the south are the least likely to give Newark high marks for safety, despite significant real estate and commercial investment in the area. The same is true for Manhattan, with those in the southern part of the state generally favorable toward NYC, but still the least likely to give it a positive rating for safety as compared with residents in other parts of the state.

Methodology – The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone May 16-May 21, 2018 using a random sample of adults in New Jersey aged 18 and older (N = 926). Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.

Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

Interviews are conducted by Key Research Solutions of Provo, Utah, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection >is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, and race. 372 interviews were conducted on landlines and 554 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F. The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Tables

In general, how safe do you think you are in…..

Northwest: Sussex, Hunterdon, Warren, Morris and Somerset counties

Northeast: Passaic and Bergen counties

Urban Core: Hudson, Essex and Union counties

Central: Ocean, Burlington, Mercer, Monmouth and Middlesex counties

South: Cape May, Atlantic, Cumberland, Gloucester, Camden and Salem counties

Exact Question Wording and Order

US1 and US2 released withheld

NJ1 through NJ3 withheld

W1 through W3 withheld

CITY    Let me ask you how safe you feel in some cities… In general, how safe do you think you are in… ROTATE… very safe, somewhat safe, not too safe, not safe at all? And what about…? ETC

[PROMPTS IF NECESSARY: “IF you went there” … “just in general” “you can think both day and night”]

CITY1             Atlantic City

CITY2             Newark

CITY3             Trenton

CITY4             Philadelphia

CITY5             Manhattan

CITY6             Camden

Very

Somewhat

Not too

Not at all

DK [vol]

Sample characteristics

Male                49%

Female             51%

Democrat (with leaners)            48%

Republican (with leaners)         31%

Independent                             16%

18-34               28%

35-59               35%

60+                  35%

White                           64%

African-American        11%

Latino                          15%

Asian                           7%

Other/refused               4%