House battlefield polling update

Thanks to the fascination with the race for the House, there’s been a rash of solid, early and independent polling of key congressional races.

Democrats will need to net a flip of at least 23 seats to take control of the House majority after the November elections. And as you’ve seen from our battlefield analysis, Democrats have significantly more offensive opportunities than Democrats do.

Here’s a round-up of what some of the independent polling from this month shows in the NBC Political Unit’s “Top 25” pickup opportunities, as well as results from the “Next 25” for Democrats and the top GOP pickup opportunities.

Just one or two recent data points in each race won’t tell the whole story—the margin-of-error in most of these surveys hovers around 5 percentage points and some campaigns have released their own internal polling showing tighter margins.

But the independent polls provide a helpful glimpse at how the race for the majority is shaping up at this point.

Top 25 

• CA-25 (Republican Rep. Steve Knight v. Democrat Katie Hill) R+2 in NYT/Siena College poll
• CA-39 (Republican Young Kim v. Democrat Gil Cisneros) R+10 in Monmouth University poll
• CA-48 (Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher v. Democrat Harley Rouda) EVEN in NYT/Siena College poll
• CA-49 (Republican Diane Harkey v. Democrat Mike Levin) D+10 in NYT/Siena College poll
• CO-06 (Republican Rep. Mike Coffman v. Democrat Jason Crow) D+11 in NYT/Siena College poll
• FL-26 (Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo v. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell) R+2 in NYT/Siena College poll
• IA-01 (Republican Rep. Rep. Rod Blum v. Democrat Abby Finkenauer) D+15 in NYT/Siena College poll
• IL-06 (Republican Rep. Peter Roskam v. Democrat Sean Casten) R+1 in NYT/Siena College poll
• ME-02 (Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin v. Democrat Jared Golden) R+5 in NYT/Siena College poll
• MN-03 (Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen v. Democrat Dean Phillips) D+9 in NYT/Siena College poll
• NY-19 (Republican Rep. John Faso v. Democrat Antonio Delgado D+3 in Monmouth University poll
• PA-07 (Republican Marty Nothstein v. Democrat Susan Wild) in R+2 Monmouth University poll
• TX-07 (Republican Rep. John Culberson v. Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher) R+3 in NYT/Siena College poll

In the 13 races polled, Republicans lead in seven districts, Democrats lead in five, and the candidates are tied in one.

Next 25

• IL-12 (Republican Rep. Mike Bost v. Democrat Brendan Kelly) R+1 in NYT/Siena College poll
• KS-02 (Republican Steve Watkins v. Democrat Paul Davis) D+1 in NYT/Siena College poll
• KS-03 (Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder v. Democrat Sharice Davids) in NYT/Siena College poll
• KY-06 (Republican Rep. Andy Barr v. Democrat Amy McGrath) R+1 in NYT/Siena College poll
• NJ-07 (Republican Rep. Leonard Lance v. Democrat Tom Malinowski) R+2 in NYT/Siena College poll; D+3 in Monmouth University poll
• TX-23 (Republican Rep. Will Hurd v. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones) R+9 in NYT/Siena College poll
• VA-7 (Republican Rep. Dave Brat v. Democrat Abigail Spanberger) R+4 in NYT/Siena College poll
• WV-3 (Republican Carol Miller v. Democrat Richard Ojeda) R+ 8 in NYT/Siena College poll
• WI-1 (Republican Bryan Steil v. Democrat Randy Bryce) R +6 in NYT/Siena College poll

In the nine races polled, Republicans lead in seven, Democrats lead in one, and NJ-07 has two polls with differing top-lines.

Best GOP pickup opportunities

• MN-08 (Democrat Joe Radinovich v. Republican Pete Stauber) D+1 in NYT/Siena College poll