NATIONAL: DEMS +8 ON HOUSE BALLOT

McConnell, Schumer, Ryan, Pelosi viewed negatively

West Long Branch, NJ – Democrats hold an 8 point lead over Republicans in the generic House ballot as public opinion on the new tax reform law continues to be divided. The Monmouth University Poll also finds that views of Congress and its four top leaders remain largely negative.

The poll finds that Democrats have maintained their advantage on the generic Congressional ballot test. If the election for the House of Representatives was held today, 49% of registered voters say they would support or lean toward supporting the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 41% who would vote for the Republican. This is similar to the 50% to 41% edge Democrats held in Monmouth’s polling in March.

Public opinion remains divided on the signature legislative achievement of the Trump era. Overall, 40% of the public approve of the tax reform plan passed by Congress last December and 44% disapprove. These results are similar to polls from March (41% – 42%) and January (44% – 44%). However, there is now an 11 point gap between those who strongly approve (18%) and strongly disapprove (29%), which is somewhat larger than the 6 to 7 point gap in prior polls (20% – 26% in March and 24% – 31% in January).

“The House race outlook has held fairly steady over the past two months. Even though the public has a negative view of both the Republican and Democrat caucuses, the GOP tends to take more of a hit on the ballot test because it is the party in power,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Just 17% approve of the job Congress is doing while 71% disapprove. This result is pretty much in line with polling over the past twelve months and the disdain continues to be bipartisan. Few Republicans (21%) and Democrats (14%), as well as independents (16%), approve of Congressional job performance.

Public opinion of the four main Congressional leaders individually is also negative and it hasn’t budged since Monmouth last asked about these officials in July 2017. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (10% approve and 38% disapprove) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (17% approve and 44% disapprove) earn the largest net negative ratings at -28 points and -27 points respectively. House Speaker Paul Ryan (-17 points; 23% approve and 40% disapprove) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (-13 points; 16% approve and 29% disapprove) also register negative views of their job performance on the whole. It should also be noted that just under 4-in-10 Americans have no opinion of the two House leaders and just over half have no opinion of their two Senate counterparts.

McConnell has the distinction of being the only leader who earns a net negative rating from his fellow partisans, at 20% approve and 27% disapprove among Republicans. The GOP base gives Ryan a net positive rating of 47% approve and 21% disapprove. Democrats give net positive ratings to their two leaders – 28% approve and 10% disapprove for Schumer along with 32% approve and 22% disapprove for Pelosi.

Three leaders earn net negative ratings in the 38 to 44 point range from Americans of the opposite party. Among Democrats, McConnell gets a 5% approve to 43% disapprove rating and Ryan gets a 10% approve to 52% disapprove rating. Among Republicans, Schumer gets a 6% approve to 50% disapprove rating. GOP hostility is significantly greater toward Pelosi, though, earning her a net negative 71 point rating of 4% approve to 75% disapprove among Republicans.

“McConnell may be disliked across the partisan spectrum, but Pelosi tends to be much more of a lightning rod for the opposition base,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from April 26 to 30, 2018 with 803 adults in the United States.  The results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1 previously released.]

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?

* Registered voters

[Q3 previously released.]

[REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY, n=681, moe = +/-3.8%:]

4.   If the election for U.S. Congress was held today, would you vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in your district? [INCLUDING LEANERS. ITEMS WERE ROTATED]

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the tax reform plan passed by Congress in December?  [Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?]

*Question wording, in December 2017, was “Have you heard that the Senate and the House have passed tax reform bills and are now working on a final version, or haven’t you heard about this? If HEARD: Do you approve or disapprove of this tax reform plan?  [Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?]”

[QUESTIONS 6-9 WERE ROTATED]

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Mitch McConnell is doing as Senate Majority Leader, or do you have no opinion of him?

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chuck Schumer is doing as Senate Minority Leader, or do you have no opinion of him?

8. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Paul Ryan is doing as Speaker of the House, or do you have no opinion of him?

9. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nancy Pelosi is doing as House Minority Leader, or do you have no opinion of her?

[Q10-18 previously released.] [Q19-34 held for future release.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from April 26 to 30, 2018 with a national random sample of 803 adults age 18 and older, in English. This includes 401 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 402 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

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