NATIONAL: MORE VOTERS RULE OUT TRUMP THAN BIDEN

Mixed results on who has presidential ‘stamina’

West Long Branch, NJ – Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden. Biden currently holds a 12 point lead in the presidential race according to the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll.  Biden holds a significant advantage among the 1 in 5 voters who do not have a favorable opinion of either candidate. Slightly more voters say they are confident about the challenger’s mental and physical stamina than say the same about the incumbent.

Biden currently has the support of 53% of registered voters and Trump has the support of 41%.  This is similar to the Democrat’s 52% to 41% lead in early June. Biden’s edge stood at 50% to 41% in May, 48% to 44% in April, and 48% to 45% in March.

Slightly more voters say they are certain about their support for Biden (40%) than say the same about Trump (34%). Fully half (50%), though, say they are not at all likely to support the incumbent while 39% say the same about the challenger. In addition to Biden’s current firm support, another 3% say they are very likely to vote for him and 9% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely. In addition to Trump’s current firm support, another 2% say they are very likely to vote for him and 6% are somewhat likely, while 6% are not too likely. Among white voters with a college degree, 62% have ruled out a vote for Trump while just 31% say the same about Biden. On the other hand, 56% of white voters without a college degree are not at all likely to support Biden while 37% say the same about Trump. Among voters from other racial or ethnic groups, 61% have ruled out Trump and just 22% say the same for Biden.

“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.

Overall, 21% of all registered voters do not have a favorable opinion of either party’s nominee. Trump did well with this “double negative” group in 2016. The National Election Pool exit poll showed him ultimately winning their vote after Clinton held a small edge throughout the campaign. But he is getting swamped among these voters this time around. Biden leads by 55% to 21% among this group.

“Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year. Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change,” said Murray.

Concerns about the two septuagenarians’ faculties have become prominent in recent media coverage and internet memes. The poll finds that more voters are at least somewhat confident that Biden (52%) has the mental and physical stamina to carry out the job of president than say the same about Trump (45%). However, more are likely to say they feel very confident about Trump (33%) than Biden (23%). This is due to a partisan phenomenon where Trump’s base is more likely to offer its support without qualification. About 9 in 10 Republicans and Democrats alike say they are at least somewhat confident in their respective party candidate’s stamina, but Republicans are more likely to say they are very confident about Trump (72%) than Democrats are for Biden (47%).

“Biden hasn’t developed the kind of adulation among his base that Trump can count on from his supporters. This seems to be a fairly common trend in the campaign so far and is at least partly due to the Democrat being out of the public eye during the pandemic,” said Murray. Voter opinion on handling the pandemic as well as race relations in a Monmouth poll taken early last month also showed lower levels of high confidence among Democrats for Biden on those issues than Republicans expressed about Trump.

The Monmouth University Poll finds that voter optimism for the 2020 presidential election has been fairly stable – it has hovered between 62% and 65% since February – but there has been a shift in enthusiasm. Currently, 40% of voters feel more enthusiastic about this election compared to past elections, 15% are less enthusiastic, and 44% say they feel about the same level of enthusiasm. Just four weeks ago, 28% were more enthusiastic, 24% less enthusiastic and 47% about the same. Enthusiasm has increased among both Republicans (from 27% to 41%) and Democrats alike (from 32% to 47%). The key difference is that the Republican shift has come mainly from those who felt the same level of enthusiasm as past elections (from 60% to 48%), but the Democratic gains have come mainly from those who had been feeling less enthusiastic (from 32% to 10%).

            The Monmouth University Poll also posed a generic ballot test for the U.S. House of Representatives election, which shows 50% of voters currently supporting the Democratic candidate in their district and 42% backing the Republican. This result is similar to last month’s poll release (52% to 43%) as well as to polling at a similar point in the last midterm election (48% to 41% in June 2018). Democrats went on to win the national House vote by 8 points that November (53% to 45%).