Earlier today, the Trump Administration published its proposal to amend how the federal government categorizes immigrants as a “public charge.” The new interpretation will radically redefine the term “public charge,” restricting access to green cards and various types of visas for immigrants who are enrolled in Medicaid or accept public benefits like food assistance. The new rule makes family income and potential use of health care, nutrition, or housing programs central considerations in whether or not to offer people an opportunity to make their lives in this country, consequently dictating who gets to be an American.

The direct effect would fall on residents applying for a green card or certain visas, but the chilling effect would be vastly greater. In New Jersey, the chilling effect would include 700,000 residents and 250,000 children. Nationwide, the new rule will impact 24 million people in, including 9 million children under 18 years old. These are people in families with at least one non-citizen, and receiving one of the named benefits. The large majority of the impacted kids are U.S. citizens.

The redefinition of the rule is extreme. If the new rule were applied to everyone born in the United States, 29 percent would not be deemed appropriate to live in this country. If it were applied to all non-citizens, about the same share, 28 percent, would be deemed inadequate. In New Jersey, 25 percent of U.S.-born residents and 22 percent of non-citizens might be deemed inadequate.

Previous Public Charge Determinants:
Before this rule change, immigrants who wanted to adjust their immigration status to Legal Permanent Residency or enter the country with a U.S. visa would be deemed ineligible and likely to become a “public charge” if they used cash assistance, such as Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), and comparable state or local programs, or government-funded long-term institutional care

New “Public Charge” Rule:
The proposed rule change expands the definition of “public charge” to include other assistance programs such as: SNAP (food assistance), public housing, non-emergency Medicaid, and Medicare Part D. In addition, it would require those petitioning to earn at least 125% of the federal poverty level (FPL) and give preference to a households with incomes at 250% of the FPL. For example, a family of four would need to earn at least $63,000 annually to avoid scrutiny under the new public charge test.

Economic Side Effects:
This rule change will incentivize mixed-status families to disenroll in food and health support, putting a drag on New Jersey’s economy. According to an analysis of data from the Fiscal Policy Institute, if 25 percent of families impacted by the rule change disenroll, we can expect a $1,845 million reduction in support to families in New Jersey. This would result in an estimated $3,599 million reduction in economic activity as affected families will forego visits to their doctors and spend significantly less in supermarkets and other stores. This reduction in economic activity translates to 24,507 jobs lost throughout the state.

NJPP will be releasing a report on the proposal’s economic impact later this week.