Quinnipiac University Poll: Women Give Menendez 11-Point Lead In New Jersey; Voters Oppose Kavanaugh Confirmation By Wide Margin
| October 3, 2018 – Women Give Menendez 11-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Oppose Kavanaugh Confirmation By Wide Margin |  |
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Sample and Methodology detail
With a big lift from New Jersey women, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, the Democratic incumbent, leads former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, the Republican challenger, 53 – 42 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
Only 5 percent of likely voters remain undecided, but 13 percent of voters who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.
Women back Sen. Menendez 57 – 38 percent, while men are divided 48 – 48 percent.
This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
Republicans go to Hugin 93 – 6 percent, as Democrats back Menendez 93 – 6 percent. Independent voters are divided with 48 percent for Hugin and 43 percent for Menendez.
The incumbent leads 67 – 26 percent among non-white voters. White voters are divided with 49 percent for Hugin and 48 percent for Menendez.
New Jersey likely voters give Menendez a split 46 – 44 percent job approval rating and a big negative 34 – 53 percent favorability rating. Hugin gets a positive 35 – 27 percent favorability rating, with 34 percent who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.
“Sen. Robert Menendez has the advantage of representing very blue New Jersey, where there are many more Democrats than Republicans,” said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“Also working to his advantage is that 63 percent of New Jersey voters want Congress to be more of a check on President Donald Trump. That number is even higher among women.”
New Jersey likely voters say 59 – 25 percent that Sen. Menendez is not honest. But Menendez cares about average people, voters say 48 – 39 percent.
Hugin is honest, voters say 39 – 24 percent. He cares about average people, voters say 38 – 31 percent, with 31 percent undecided.
“New Jersey likely voters may prefer Sen. Menendez over Republican challenger Bob Hugin, but they certainly make it clear they are not fond of Menendez,” Snow added.
“Only one quarter of voters believe the incumbent is honest. Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive, scores higher on honesty, at 39 percent, but just about as many people don’t know enough about him to say for sure.”
Judge Brett Kavanaugh
New Jersey likely voters say 59 – 35 percent that the U.S. Senate should not confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Women oppose his confirmation 65 – 28 percent and men are opposed 51 – 42 percent. The only listed party, gender, education or racial group to support the confirmation are Republicans, 76 – 14 percent. White men are divided, with 50 percent for confirmation and 44 percent opposed.
Gov. Murphy, Sen. Booker, President Trump
New Jersey likely voters approve 54 – 34 percent of the job Gov. Phil Murphy is doing. Approval is 89 – 5 percent among Democrats and 47 – 40 percent among independent voters. Republicans disapprove 73 – 13 percent.
Voters approve 58 – 37 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is doing.
President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 – 62 percent job approval rating. The only listed group to approve of the president are Republicans, 81 – 17 percent.
Congress should be “more of a check on President Trump,” 63 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say Congress is doing enough to check the president.
From September 25 – October 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,058 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Bob Hugin the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Robert Menendez the Democrat or more toward Bob Hugin the Republican?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Menendez 53% 6% 93% 43% 48% 57% 52% 43%
Hugin 42 93 6 48 48 38 46 53
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - -
DK/NA 5 1 2 8 4 5 2 4
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Menendez 38% 54% 48% 67%
Hugin 59 41 49 26
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - -
DK/NA 2 4 3 7
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS................
CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
Tot Menendez Hugin
Mind made up 86% 85% 88%
Might change 13 15 10
DK/NA 1 1 2
2. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 34% 6% 64% 22% 28% 38% 31% 30%
Unfavorable 53 86 25 60 61 47 60 59
Hvn't hrd enough 11 7 8 15 9 12 6 10
REFUSED 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 2
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Favorable 23% 36% 31% 41%
Unfavorable 68 53 59 38
Hvn't hrd enough 6 9 8 17
REFUSED 2 2 2 3
3. Is your opinion of Bob Hugin favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 35% 77% 10% 36% 41% 30% 38% 43%
Unfavorable 27 5 48 20 23 31 29 21
Hvn't hrd enough 34 15 38 41 33 35 29 34
REFUSED 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 1
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Favorable 49% 34% 40% 23%
Unfavorable 20 30 26 31
Hvn't hrd enough 29 33 31 40
REFUSED 2 3 2 5
4. Would you say that Robert Menendez – is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Yes 25% 5% 48% 15% 24% 25% 23% 22%
No 59 87 35 67 65 55 65 65
DK/NA 16 8 18 18 11 20 13 13
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Yes 19% 25% 22% 32%
No 73 59 65 47
DK/NA 8 16 13 22
5. Would you say that Robert Menendez – cares about average people, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Yes 48% 19% 75% 42% 47% 50% 49% 41%
No 39 71 15 41 42 36 40 46
DK/NA 13 10 11 17 12 14 11 13
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Yes 41% 48% 45% 56%
No 48 39 43 28
DK/NA 11 13 12 16
6. Would you say that Bob Hugin – is honest, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Yes 39% 80% 16% 39% 49% 31% 42% 47%
No 24 5 39 19 22 26 23 17
DK/NA 37 15 45 42 29 43 36 36
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Yes 56% 35% 44% 29%
No 16 23 20 34
DK/NA 28 42 36 37
7. Would you say that Bob Hugin – cares about average people, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Yes 38% 79% 18% 35% 45% 32% 39% 47%
No 31 8 49 26 28 34 32 24
DK/NA 31 14 33 39 27 34 29 29
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Yes 51% 37% 43% 26%
No 24 31 28 39
DK/NA 25 32 29 35
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 54% 13% 89% 47% 50% 57% 52% 44%
Disapprove 34 73 5 40 40 29 38 42
DK/NA 11 14 7 13 10 13 10 14
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Approve 41% 54% 48% 69%
Disapprove 48 34 40 22
DK/NA 11 13 12 9
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 58% 14% 94% 50% 50% 65% 55% 50%
Disapprove 37 78 5 42 45 30 41 45
DK/NA 5 8 1 7 5 5 5 5
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Approve 41% 60% 52% 72%
Disapprove 54 34 43 22
DK/NA 4 6 5 6
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 46% 12% 78% 37% 40% 51% 46% 42%
Disapprove 44 81 15 51 53 38 48 51
DK/NA 10 6 8 12 7 11 6 8
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Approve 35% 51% 44% 51%
Disapprove 60 41 49 33
DK/NA 5 8 7 16
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 35% 81% 4% 36% 41% 30% 37% 43%
Disapprove 62 17 95 59 57 67 60 54
DK/NA 3 2 1 5 3 3 3 3
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Approve 49% 33% 40% 22%
Disapprove 48 64 58 76
DK/NA 2 3 3 2
12. In general, would you like to see Congress be more of a check on President Trump, or do you think Congress is doing enough to be a check on President Trump?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
More of a check 63% 20% 94% 60% 58% 67% 61% 55%
Doing enough 28 57 5 33 34 24 30 37
LESS OF A CHECK(VOL) 3 9 - 2 3 3 5 3
DK/NA 6 13 1 5 5 6 5 6
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
More of a check 50% 64% 58% 77%
Doing enough 41 27 33 18
LESS OF A CHECK(VOL) 5 3 4 -
DK/NA 5 6 5 5
13. As you may know, President Trump has nominated Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, or not?
LIKELY VOTERS........................................
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Yes/Confirm 35% 76% 5% 39% 42% 28% 38% 44%
No 59 14 93 53 51 65 55 51
DK/NA 7 10 2 8 6 7 7 5
WHITE..... Non
Men Wom Wht Wht
Yes/Confirm 50% 35% 41% 19%
No 44 60 53 73
DK/NA 7 6 6 7
