June 14, 2017 – Murphy Buries Guadagno 2-1 In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Christie, Trump Approval Ratings Drop To Historic Lows
Five months before Election Day, Democrat Phil Murphy buries Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 55 – 26 percent in the New Jersey governor’s race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
The blue wave sweeps across the ballot as New Jersey voters say 57 – 29 percent that they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control the State Legislature, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.
Lt. Gov. Guadagno leads 78 – 8 percent among Republicans and gets 38 percent of white men to Murphy’s 39 percent. The Democrat leads among every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group, including 46 – 26 percent among independent voters and 61 – 22 percent among women.
“Taxes” is the most important issue in their vote for governor, 28 percent of voters say, while 20 percent list health care; 15 percent cite the economy; 14 percent say education and 13 percent list ethics in government.
Only 23 percent of voters believe Guadagno’s pledge that, if elected, she will lower property taxes or step down after one term as governor, but 68 percent don’t believe her pledge.
Only 39 percent believe Murphy’s pledge to increase education funding by imposing a millionaires’ tax, with no tax hike on the middle class, while 52 percent don’t believe his pledge.
“Once upon a time, New Jersey elections were peppy – looked on as a sign of where the nation was heading politically. This was a far from peppy primary and the first general election matchup between Democrat Phil Murphy and Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno doesn’t look like this race will go down to the wire,” said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“But if New Jersey is a weather vane, the wind is blowing in the Democrats’ direction.”
“Hobbled by eight years in a little noticed job and her ties to a remarkably unpopular governor, Lt. Gov. Guadagno is little-known and little-liked,” Carroll added. “Half the state doesn’t know enough about her to judge her as a candidate.
“The last New Jersey governor from Goldman Sachs, Jon Corzine, failed to win a second term, but only one-third of voters hold Murphy’s Wall Street career against him. Guadagno’s experience as lieutenant governor seems to be hurting her more.”
Murphy gets a 33 – 18 percent favorability rating from New Jersey voters, while 47 percent haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion of him. Guadagno gets a negative 20 – 28 percent favorability, with 50 percent who haven’t heard enough to form an opinion.
Murphy’s 23 years at Goldman Sachs leaves 33 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of him, with 7 percent saying it has a positive impact and 56 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion.
Guadagno’s service as Gov. Christopher Christie’s Lieutenant Governor leaves 54 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of her; 9 percent of voters with a positive impact and 35 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion of her. Gov. Christie, President Trump Approval Ratings
Christie makes history again as New Jersey voters disapprove 81 – 15 percent of the job he is doing, the worst approval rating for any governor in any state surveyed by Quinnipiac University in more than 20 years. Even Republicans disapprove 58 – 31 percent.
President Donald Trump also is at a historic low, as Garden State voters disapprove 66 – 28 percent of the job he is doing.
New Jersey voters approve 58 – 28 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is doing, compared to his all-time high approval of 58 – 31 percent January 31.
U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez gets a 44 – 35 percent approval rating compared to his 41 – 41 percent score in a May 3 Quinnipiac University poll.
But voters say 44 – 31 percent that Menendez does not deserve reelection next year. From June 7 – 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,103 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Phil Murphy the Democrat and Kim Guadagno the Republican, for whom would you vote?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Murphy 55% 8% 88% 46% 47% 61% 51% 43%
Guadagno 26 78 3 26 31 22 31 36
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 - 4 4 1 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 2 2 2 4
DK/NA 14 11 6 22 15 13 14 15
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Murphy 56% 60% 55% 51% 39% 54% 47% 70%
Guadagno 15 24 30 34 38 30 34 13
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 7 - 3 1 2 2 2 4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 3 1 4 2 3 1
DK/NA 20 14 9 13 17 12 14 12
2. Is your opinion of Phil Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 33% 8% 50% 31% 32% 35% 33% 25%
Unfavorable 18 36 7 21 23 13 21 22
Hvn't hrd enough 47 55 43 46 42 51 44 51
REFUSED 2 1 - 3 3 1 2 3
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Favorable 34% 38% 33% 32% 26% 32% 29% 43%
Unfavorable 11 13 21 21 26 17 21 10
Hvn't hrd enough 51 47 45 46 44 50 47 45
REFUSED 4 1 1 1 4 1 2 1
3. Is your opinion of Kim Guadagno favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Favorable 20% 48% 6% 20% 23% 17% 24% 24%
Unfavorable 28 12 40 25 26 30 35 22
Hvn't hrd enough 50 39 53 52 47 52 39 52
REFUSED 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 2
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Favorable 8% 16% 24% 28% 29% 21% 25% 11%
Unfavorable 23 26 32 30 26 31 29 28
Hvn't hrd enough 65 57 43 39 42 48 45 59
REFUSED 3 1 1 3 3 1 2 2
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 28% 79% 5% 31% 34% 24% 31% 43%
Disapprove 66 15 93 60 60 70 63 52
DK/NA 6 7 3 9 6 6 6 5
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 19% 29% 31% 32% 43% 32% 37% 14%
Disapprove 74 62 65 63 52 63 58 79
DK/NA 7 8 4 4 6 5 5 7
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 15% 31% 4% 16% 16% 14% 17% 14%
Disapprove 81 58 94 81 82 81 79 80
DK/NA 4 12 2 3 3 6 4 6
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 9% 13% 16% 19% 18% 14% 16% 11%
Disapprove 89 82 80 75 79 79 79 86
DK/NA 1 5 4 6 3 6 5 3
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 26% 21% 26% 27% 24% 27% 22% 27%
Disapprove 54 63 51 54 59 49 56 51
DK/NA 20 15 23 19 17 23 22 22
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 34% 23% 23% 21% 23% 26% 25% 26%
Disapprove 42 57 62 56 60 47 53 57
DK/NA 24 20 15 23 17 26 22 17
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 58% 20% 81% 52% 49% 66% 58% 50%
Disapprove 28 63 9 30 36 20 31 35
DK/NA 15 17 10 18 15 14 11 15
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 53% 59% 60% 58% 44% 63% 54% 65%
Disapprove 23 29 28 31 43 25 33 17
DK/NA 24 12 12 11 13 13 13 18
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 44% 19% 59% 43% 38% 49% 42% 38%
Disapprove 35 55 21 39 41 30 39 41
DK/NA 21 26 20 18 21 21 18 21
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 36% 45% 49% 45% 34% 46% 40% 51%
Disapprove 33 33 36 40 49 32 40 27
DK/NA 31 22 14 16 17 22 20 22
9. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Yes/Deserves 31% 18% 39% 30% 30% 32% 31% 29%
No/Does not 44 57 35 48 51 39 44 48
DK/NA 25 24 26 22 19 30 25 23
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Yes/Deserves 23% 30% 34% 36% 28% 32% 30% 33%
No/Does not 39 48 46 45 53 40 46 42
DK/NA 38 22 20 18 19 28 24 25
10. Would you like to see the Democrats or the Republicans control the New Jersey state legislature?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Democrats 57% 7% 92% 47% 48% 65% 53% 46%
Republicans 29 85 3 31 36 24 34 42
DK/NA 14 9 5 22 16 12 13 12
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Democrats 61% 60% 56% 55% 42% 56% 50% 70%
Republicans 19 29 34 34 44 33 38 15
DK/NA 20 11 11 12 13 11 12 15
12. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, the budget, health care, or ethics in government?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Taxes 28% 46% 15% 36% 34% 23% 34% 31%
Economy 15 21 14 13 17 14 14 18
Education 14 5 18 14 11 17 15 7
The budget 8 7 6 9 9 7 9 7
Health care 20 8 31 13 14 25 14 19
Ethics in government 13 10 16 14 13 14 13 15
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 2 - 1 1
DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Taxes 12% 29% 35% 36% 37% 29% 33% 21%
Economy 13 14 19 16 15 16 16 15
Education 28 18 8 6 10 13 11 19
The budget 10 7 7 7 9 7 8 6
Health care 26 16 20 17 12 20 16 26
Ethics in government 11 14 11 14 14 15 14 12
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 2 1 1 -
DK/NA - - - 3 1 1 1 1
13. As you may know, Phil Murphy worked for Goldman Sachs for 23 years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Positive 7% 10% 6% 4% 7% 6% 6% 4%
Negative 33 27 35 33 37 30 36 30
No impact 56 58 55 59 53 59 57 61
DK/NA 4 5 3 3 3 5 1 4
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Positive 9% 10% 4% 4% 6% 5% 5% 8%
Negative 29 27 39 37 36 31 33 33
No impact 56 62 54 54 56 60 58 53
DK/NA 7 1 2 5 2 4 3 6
14. As you may know, Kim Guadagno has been Chris Christie’s lieutenant governor for about eight years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Positive 9% 25% 2% 8% 9% 9% 11% 12%
Negative 54 25 73 50 51 56 53 44
No impact 35 47 24 42 37 33 35 42
DK/NA 2 3 1 - 2 1 1 2
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Positive 5% 5% 10% 12% 13% 11% 12% 4%
Negative 62 61 54 44 46 51 49 65
No impact 31 33 35 41 40 37 38 29
DK/NA 2 - 1 3 2 1 1 3
15. Do you believe Kim Guadagno’s pledge that if she is elected governor she will lower property taxes or step down after one term, or don’t you believe her pledge?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Believe 23% 46% 11% 25% 28% 19% 24% 28%
Don't believe 68 44 81 67 66 70 68 62
DK/NA 9 10 8 8 6 11 8 10
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Believe 17% 20% 27% 27% 30% 23% 26% 20%
Don't believe 68 75 70 64 64 66 65 73
DK/NA 15 5 3 9 6 11 9 8
16. Do you believe Phil Murphy’s pledge to increase education funding by imposing a millionaires’ tax, with no tax increases on the middle class, or don’t you believe his pledge?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Believe 39% 22% 53% 36% 38% 41% 41% 33%
Don't believe 52 67 42 54 56 49 53 59
DK/NA 8 10 5 10 7 10 6 8
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Believe 37% 49% 38% 32% 36% 38% 37% 45%
Don't believe 50 46 56 59 59 53 56 45
DK/NA 13 5 5 8 5 10 7 10
20. There is a Republican health care plan to replace Obamacare, known as the American Health Care Act. Do you approve or disapprove of this Republican health care plan?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 19% 57% 3% 20% 24% 15% 25% 25%
Disapprove 69 23 92 67 66 72 63 57
DK/NA 12 21 5 14 11 13 12 18
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 11% 17% 22% 23% 31% 20% 25% 9%
Disapprove 81 74 66 58 56 64 60 85
DK/NA 9 9 12 18 14 16 15 6
