There have been a spate of op eds recently, here in InsiderNJ and in the Star Ledger, as well as others, such as in the NY Times – all blaming the loss in Virginia and Governor Murphy’s closer than expected win in New Jersey on a rejection of ”the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party”. They also claim that this is proof that Governor Murphy is “too progressive” and should ‘moderate’ his positions.

Frankly, these statements amalgamate generalized statements without data to back them up. Further, objective data reveals the opposite.

So, first, let’s look at what the “Bernie Sanders wing” is and is not.   Bernie Sanders and his “wing” are concerned with economic policy, income inequality and providing a secure living for all Americans – period.  Think of everything you’ve ever heard Sanders talk about for the last forty years – it is always economic equality and improving the 99%’s living condition. The four key components you hear the “Sanders wing” talk about are:

Medicare for All – A Hill-HarrisX poll conducted last year found 69% of registered voters support providing Medicare for All to every American.

Lowering Prescription Drug Prices – A Kaiser Family Foundation poll found 83% of the public — including 91% of Democrats, 85% of Independents, 76% of Republicans and 84% of seniors — support the federal government negotiating lower drug prices for both Medicare and private insurance. These opinions were relatively unchanged by the arguments in favor or against the policy.

Elimination of Student Loan Debt  – Another Hill-HarrisX poll found a majority of voters support cancelling up to $50,000 of student debt per person.

$15 Minimum Wage – 62% of U.S. adults say they favor raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour.

So much for rejecting the “radical Sanders agenda”.

The anti-Sanders argument amounts to “Bernie Sanders campaigned for Murphy in New Jersey and the election was closer than expected, therefore it’s Sanders’ fault”.  Here’s an equally facile argument:

 “Bernie Sanders didn’t campaign for McAuliffe in Virginia and he lost. He campaigned for Murphy in New Jersey and he won, therefore Sanders is the winning difference.”

Neither is accurate, though a stronger argument can be made for the latter.

As someone who has conducted over 150 surveys in New Jersey, I’d be surprised if more than 3-7% of voters even knew Sanders campaigned for Murphy in New Jersey – and most of that would be divided between progressives, who would be motivated by his appearance to go vote in a year in which they have been disappointed by action or lack thereof in DC. and Trumpers, who were going to vote against Murphy anyway. Since they were highly motivated to vote, Sanders’ appearance would have meant nothing to them in terms of turnout. Advantage Sanders.

As someone with close and deep ties to progressives around the state, I can tell you they felt little motivation to get out and vote when they saw the things in DC that they deemed important, being stripped away one by one. (Thank you, New York Times “moderates” Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema.)  I can also tell you that Sanders’ appearance, coupled with some unprecedented progressive organizing by Hetty Rosenstein, Justin Goldsman and Katie Wertheimer, energized progressives. Was it the difference? We don’t have the data to know. Was it helpful? Of course.

From a data standpoint, Virginia was much more fortunate. A number of focus groups were conducted right after the election. Every one showed the same results. Voters agreed with the democrats overwhelmingly on economic issues such as prescription drugs, Medicare for All, student loans and minimum wage. Sound familiar? Where the party lost them was in the perception that it is a tool of DC elites (anyone believe that describes Bernie Sanders?), who are more interested in non-economic, cultural issues (precisely because they don’t threaten their corporate donors).

The Star Ledger op ed then claims that Sanders has problems with “practical liberal African Americans”. I don’t know what sub-group “practical, liberal African Americans” is, but I know this – the stunning feature of both Sander presidential elections was how demographically flat Sanders’ support was, with one exception – age. Those under 45 (now), no matter what other group they belonged to, were fervent supporters, those over 45 were less so, though by no means adverse to Sanders. The reason Sanders overall numbers were softer among African Americans is because they are the oldest voting demographic – less voting people under 45.

Now a challenge. Name an issue that Governor Murphy is “too progressive” on.  Don’t name the millionaires tax, since 70% of the electorate supports it. Therefore it is not “too progressive”, it’s “mainstream”.

Go ahead. Name one. Any one. Now convince me that more than 10% of the electorate even knows about it. You can’t. Readers here are one of the most informed and interested political audiences in the state and you can’t do it.  Any New Jersey communications professional can tell you New Jersey is the toughest communications environment in the country.  It’s about the only place where a potential candidate can come to you and say they’ve got three million dollars for a campaign and your reply would be “You got enough money to communicate one two-sentence idea, choose wisely.”

The other argument is that Governor Murphy should “moderate” his positions to appeal to conservative voters.  Of course you should try to appeal to conservative voters. That’s how you get 100% support. But, you do that by convincing them that the things you believe are in their own interest – not by changing your position. What’s the point of even running for office if you’re just going to start changing what you believe in and what you stand for.

AND why would you change popular positions to support less popular positions you don’t believe in. That’s crazy math.

The facts are, and the data backs it up, both elections were driven by national politics. The candidate in Virginia, a chief architect of the Clinton, “tack with the wind” strategy, lost.  The “too progressive”, “stick with your beliefs”, candidate, won.

Don’t change, Governor. Just do the right thing. You’ll be fine.

Barry Brendel was the Founder of Our Revolution New Jersey and Vice Chair of New Jersey for Bernie2020. Barry is a political consultant who has worked in over 200 campaigns in 20 states and 7 presidential campaigns. Originally trained as a pollster, Barry has won two prestigious, national Telly Awards for media production. Last year, Barry was a national finalist for Campaign and Elections Reed Award for Best Online Media Campaign. InsiderNJ chose Barry for its 2020 Power 100 list.