Senator Bob Menendez holds a unique position in the national midterm elections of 2018.  He is the only incumbent Democratic US Senator from a blue state that is vulnerable to defeat this year.  All the other vulnerable Democratic incumbents are either from red states (John Tester in Montana, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Joe Manchin in West Virginia) or purple states (Bill Nelson in Florida). 

As reported by today’s highly reputed Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind Poll, while Menendez is ahead of Republican challenger Bob Hugin among likely voters 43 to 37 points, his six-point lead is only slightly above the margin of error.  The Menendez vulnerability is due to the allegations of corruption for which he was rebuked by the United States Senate.   He is fortunate to be running against a deeply flawed challenger in Bob Hugin. 

Hugin’s three principle deficiencies as a candidate are 1) his close past relationships with Donald Trump and Chris Christie; 2) as CEO of Celgene, his prevention of competition from generic drug manufacturers, which enabled his company to keep its prices artificially high; and 3) as an alumnus in his thirties, his opposition to the admission of women to the Princeton University Tiger Inn eating club.  While Hugin has increased Menendez’s negatives with his commercials portraying the incumbent Senator as a corrupt grifter, Menendez has effectively introduced Hugin to the New Jersey electorate as a sexist, price gouging pharmaceutical executive friend of Donald Trump and Chris Christie.  This campaign is truly a race to the bottom. 

The major effect of this negative campaigning, as shown by the FDU poll, has been to increase support for each of these candidates within their respective parties.  Menendez has a lead of 73 to 4 among likely Democratic voters, while Hugin has a lead of 89 to 3 among Republicans.  The difference is with regard to undecided voters.  Among Democratic voters, 22 percent remain undecided while only six percent of GOP voters have not yet made a decision.

The FDU poll identifies 56 percent of likely voters as Democrats while only 36 percent as Republicans.  If Menendez is able to garner the lion’s share of undecided Democratic voters, he wins the election.   

The issue on which Menendez can persuade undecided Democratic voters to come home to him is the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of Trump nominee Brett Kavanaugh as an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court.  A separate FDU poll released yesterday showed that this is a most unpopular nomination among likely New Jersey voters, with 38 percent favoring his confirmation and 53 percent opposed to it.  

Menendez is unequivocally opposed to the confirmation of Judge Kavanaugh while Hugin is still refusing to take a position.  While Hugin will have to take a position before the confirmation vote, he faces a potential loss of support regardless of what decision he makes.  If he supports the nomination, this will accelerate the movement of undecided Democratic voters to Menendez.  If he opposes it, he risks incurring the wrath of Trump base voters and their defection to the independent candidacy of Murray Sabrin.  If he makes no decision, he risks losing support from both pro and anti-Kavanaugh voters. 

For Democratic incumbent Senators in red states, opposition to the Kavanaugh confirmation is most problematic, as a large majority of the voters in these states support the appointment.  In blue New Jersey, the opposition of Bob Menendez to the Kavanaugh nomination is his path to victory.  In the final month of the campaign, the contest will literally become a race between Bob Menendez and Brett Kavanaugh.  This is a race that Menendez will win. 

A final personal note:  On July 12, 2018, I wrote this column for InsiderNJ.com, “This Never Trump Conservative supports the Kavanaugh Appointment.” (https://www.insidernj.com/never-trump-conservative-supports-kavanaugh-appointment/) 

My support for him was based upon our common judicial philosophy that courts should limit themselves to interpreting statutes in accordance with their original understanding and refrain from legislating from the bench.  I was appalled, however, by Judge Kavanaugh’s speech before the Senate Judiciary Committee, in which he took a decidedly partisan tone and displayed a complete lack of judicial temperament. It is fine for a judge to interpret statutes in light of his or her ideology, but political partisanship is improper and wrong.  Plus, I believe Dr. Ford.  I no longer support the Kavanaugh appointment. 

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman.