As time ticks down to November 5th and the fate of the planet in a presidential election, insiders in New Jersey have more parochial concerns, or statewide anyway, namely a sweaty consideration of that list of September endorsements issued by Senate President Nick Scutari (D-22) and the impact it might have on the 2025 gubernatorial contest.

A few sources approached by InsiderNJ dismissed Scutari’s list as cocktail napkin scribbling, tossed like a nonthreatening paper airplane in the direction of an overwhelming organizational onslaught. Names that appear in glowing approval now get walked backed later. Just ask Vinny Prieto, who once went to war thinking he had Essex County behind him only to wake up stranded in Secaucus. Panic-stricken perhaps as he hears snatches of conversation about the future, the sitting senate president pulled the pin too early, a source insisted.

Most party leaders say they have the presidential contest at the forefront of priority right now, and caution against statewide drama at this juncture. Let the 2024 presidential contest play out first, they say, and then we will get to the 2025 gubernatorial tilt. One relates to the other. Don’t pretend otherwise – or so runs the argument. In that vein, they chastise Scutari as jumping out there too early and falling into the drama trap.

But inevitably, the senate president’s decision to release the names of those in his caucus who support reupping him for another term on the other side of the national election, creates parlor room questions. As such, insiders examining Scutari’s list made the immediate observation that it lacked names of those in the Middlesex delegation. Now, why is that important? For at least two reasons. The first is that Middlesex drove Scutari’s rise to power to begin with, at least from an organizational standpoint. Without the support of Middlesex, Scutari would not have risen to occupy the throne. Second, Middlesex as a classic contextualized New Jersey party power player makes moves that connect to other centers of power. It doesn’t move to support a candidate for governor, for example, without simultaneously nailing down speaker – and senate president. As things stand, as part of a delicate balancing act, Middlesex occupies the speakership with Craig Coughlin of Woodbridge. In order to keep Coughlin where he is within the larger framework of gamesmanship and the interests of other counties and the developing dynamics of a gubernatorial election year, Middlesex may see the option of removing Scutari. If he heard that, perhaps Scutari felt the need to shore up his caucus.

We’re not saying he did hear that, or that he heard other floated names to replace him, possibly with Middlesex’s blessing, like old rival state Senator Joe Cryan (his name, like his Middlesex colleagues, was absent from the senate prez’s list), or that anything is settled. Indeed, we’re saying it’s fluid. Names hover like shadows in the hallways of power. But that unto itself might make Scutari nervous, too.

U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-5) securing a foothold in North Hudson with the support of Senator Brian P. Stack might give Scutari some assurance that a deal including Gottheimer for governor might include him reupping for the senate presidency, as the powerful Stack’s name appeared on Scutari’s list of senate supporters. Stack wants to be totally wired in to the locus of three-pronged power in this state. But if separation exists between Scutari and Middlesex, might that mean – at the very least – the potential for separation between Gottheimer and Middlesex? Now, to be clear, Middlesex never issued an endorsement of Gottheimer. Sources have whispered about the congressman’s strong organizational position in the manifold of the Democratic Primary. Stack backing. Fundraising chops. Smart as a whip. Aggressively political. What’s there not to like? Certainly, he appears strongly footed to make himself seen by the powerful Middlesex. In addition, Middlesex has close ties to North Hudson, and to Gottheimer’s home county of Bergen. For a few months, most insiders have seen Gottheimer as the favorite for organizational support that starts with Middlesex-Bergen-Hudson, while jeering at the supposed mangling of Essex, a county with three candidates for governor: U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and NJEA President Sean Spiller.

But U.S. Rep. Andy Kim’s successful challenge to the organization line this year might prompt a

reevaluation of that option. Beat up by Kim for appearing to force-feed an establishment U.S. Senate candidate, do the party organizations really want to make a centrist male the poster child for organizational support in 2025? They’re already licking their wounds. Or might Middlesex – self-interested, of course, because that’s politics – see a better statewide play – given the times, and given the tenuous nature of the lines – with a candidate who might appear better suited to galvanize rank and file support, which is to say, a progressive candidate with the capacity to inspire that often underserved portion of the Democratic Party at the upper echelons of NJ power, namely women. We don’t want to make an enemy out of our own party, after all, say the aging males in the inner circles trembling with the weight of street power objection always at the edge of a full-blown rebellion. Careful, Middlesex, careful. You can hear Bergen and perhaps North Hudson (and certainly a nefariously grinning South Jersey) cautioning. Essex is divided. But Hudson is mangled, too, let’s face it, or so runs the push back, with Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop running for governor and Stack refusing to support him. After getting lumped up by Andy Kim, can the bosses get back in the good graces of party primary voters with the problem solvers caucus-molded Gottheimer?

It’s a question – that’s all, a question! – and one asked in those ongoing conversations in the vicinity of Scutari, even as the same players also entertain the possibility of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris defeating Republican nominee Donald Trump and thereby enabling Gottheimer’s argument that white centrist dudes are really hip after all, or could be, in the name of party balance. If the country can elect an African Indian American woman, can’t it reset the next election cycle with an authentic Jersey guy? It’s a question. Or what if Trump does better in New Jersey than he did in 2020, and scares the party into imposing discipline and making the case to progressives that Democrats could lose the general without a tough-fibered pragmatist like Gottheimer? Just a thought. It’s volatile, after all, the operative environmental atmosphere insiders point to when criticizing Scutari for jumping when he did, with so much unsettled, and all the pieces connected, albeit in shadow.