The rest of the state fights regional and parochial battles while New Jersey’s political fate hinges on Hudson County.

A Stack ally broke down what he sees as the terrain a week and a day ahead of the June 12th reorganization showdown between state Senator Brian P. Stack (D-33) and Jersey City School Board Member Amy DeGise for the chairmanship of the Hudson County Democratic Organization (HCDO).

Everyone agrees on at least on one thing: Union City and state Senator Nick Sacco’s North Bergen have nearly the same committee votes and each will deliver so it will be a wash.

The rest is a little thornier, with turnout of course a factor.

But the final outcome comes down to Jersey City, Hudson’s largest municipality and home to 363 committee votes.

Here’s the breakdown, as the Stack ally sees it.

Bayonne, the source opined, will have bad turnout, with Stack-Fulop penetrating; while Hoboken will have good turnout with a smaller delegation for Stack, who will still have a majority. In the end, the source argued, it will be a wash.

In battleground West New York, Stack forces expect to drain about 15-20 committee seats of the total 58. DeGise will have a plurality of 25 votes.

West Hudson and the balance of smaller towns adds up to 140 total.

Those are DeGise votes.

The wins there put Team DeGise up by 115-125 votes heading into Jersey City.

That means Stack will have to win Jersey City by a 140 margin.  In short, if DeGise gets 100 votes, which her allies say she can, Stack will need 240.

240 in Jersey City.

The source disputes DeGise’s ability land that number, but insists that even if she does, Stack – eyeballing a 250-Jersey City vote total, at least, can still win.