The switch of South Jersey Congressional Representative Jeff Van Drew from the Democrats to the Republicans provides a sword for Sue Altman, Kate Delany, and the South Jersey Progressive Democrats in their guerrilla war against the George Norcross III/ State Senate President Steve Sweeney – led South Jersey Democratic establishment.

The House seat in question, Congressional District 2 (all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem Counties, with portions of Burlington, Camden, and Ocean Counties) is now likely to remain in Republican hands for the foreseeable future.  To be sure, Donald Trump will lose New Jersey in the presidential election of 2020 by a significant landslide.  He will, however, carry Congressional District 2 comfortably, and the recent upset victory of coming Republican superstar Mike Testa, Jr. in the State Senate race in Legislative District One presages a strong Republican trend in the Cape May/Cumberland portion of the Congressional District.

And Jeff Van Drew will receive the Republican nomination for that Congressional seat and win reelection.  Trump will clear the field for him to make sure there is no significant primary opposition.

So Sue Altman and her followers can, with complete credibility, point fingers of blame for the loss of this seat at the Norcross/Sweeney coterie.  Norcross and Sweeney not only were promoters of Van Drew: they were major factors in the Democratic candidates in Legislative District One in 2019 running as “the Van Drew team.”

I have already heard a conspiracy theory allegation that Norcross himself may have encouraged Van Drew to switch parties.  The alleged motive: This would ingratiate Norcross with Donald Trump (with whom he already has a long term relationship) and US Attorney General Bill Barr at a time when it has been reported that Federal authorities in Philadelphia have launched an investigation in connection with New Jersey’s multibillion-dollar corporate tax-incentive program, including those awarded in Camden.  I do not believe this theory, and I see absolutely no evidence in support of it.  I would hardly be surprised, however, to hear individual Progressive Left Democrats allege it in the coming firestorm.

Norcross, Sweeney, and their South Jersey allies project a smug attitude about Sue Altman and the South Jersey Progressive Democrats.  This is, however, a dangerously complacent view.

Norcross will win every political war where money and organization are the decisive factors, but this is a war for hearts and minds.  He is not experienced in ideological conflict.  We are witnessing the beginning of a Democratic Vietnam-style political war in South Jersey – a long, inconclusive conflict – and the coming Democratic primaries for county committee seats and municipal offices will be the non-violent equivalent of the Vietnam War strategic hamlet battles.

And the Democratic Civil War of South Jersey will be of national significance.

Joe Biden will wrap up the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination of 2020 sooner than the conventional wisdom pundits think.  The landslide victory of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives over the Labour Party of far-left Jeremy Corbyn in the United Kingdom is having a powerful impact among key Democratic players in America.  Just as the far left Labour Party could not defeat a laughable figure like Boris Johnson, a failed, disgraced American president like Donald Trump, while unable to defeat a mainstream Democratic center-left solid candidate like Joe Biden, still could easily defeat a Progressive Left Democratic candidate like a Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

So the Democratic establishment will close ranks quickly behind Joe Biden.  Electability is now by far the area of greatest concern among Democrats, from the grassroots to Capitol Hill.  Bernie Sanders will stay in the race until the end, but he and the progressives will also close ranks behind Joe Biden at the Convention. Nothing motivates national Democratic Party unity like animus towards Donald Trump, personal and political.  And unlike his dislike of Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders has positive and friendly personal feelings towards Joe Biden.

Yet while the Progressive Left Democrats will join with the mainstream center-left Democrats in November, 2020 to oust Donald Trump from the White House, they will not cease and desist from their long range efforts to win control of the Democratic Party.  Instead, they will refocus their attentions on the local, grassroots level.  For the Progressive Left Democrats, South Jersey is the perfect battleground and prize.

Democratic Party players throughout the country will be paying close attention to the South Jersey Democratic Civil War, for it may presage similar internecine local Democratic conflicts nationwide.  Outside parties are likely to get involved in this South Jersey conflagration, with establishment Democratic individuals and entities coming to the assistance of the Norcross/Sweeney machine and Progressive Left Democrats, led by the forces of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez entering South Jersey on behalf of the South Jersey Progressive Left Democrats.

The Spanish Civil War of 1936-1939 has been described as the “dress rehearsal and testing ground for World War 2,” given the assistance of outside parties to the combatants, the ultimately successful Nationalists led by Francisco Franco and the Spanish Republicans.  The involvement of outside parties could make the South Jersey Democratic Civil War the nonviolent equivalent of the Spanish Civil War – the dress rehearsal and testing ground for the political wars that will be intensely waged during the next decade at the local level throughout the nation between center-left and progressive left Democrats.  Stay tuned.

Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission.