Tom Kean

What’s going on right now under that implacable veneer of good manners and good breeding one can only guess, as the senate minority leader from LD21 considers what to do about his old nemesis Senate President Steve Sweeney. There are those within the New Jersey Education Association (NJEA) who want to join forces with Kean to eliminate Sweeney in a general election contest, or at least pin him down so he can’t spend resources elsewhere and boost the likes of battleground senate candidates Assemblyman Troy Singleton (D-7), Vin Gopal in LD11 and, to a lesser degree, Colin Bell in LD2. But one has only to study the political ascent of Kean’s father to the speakership of the General Assembly in 1974 to see another potential empowerment option for the young Kean. If those North Jersey affiliates of Democratic front-runner for Governor Phil Murphy truly detest the idea of another four-year term for Sweeney and South Jersey, they can always cut a deal with Kean, a la David Friedland of Hudson, one of four Democrats who voted with the minority party and installed Kean, Sr., a Republican, on the lower house throne.

Steve Sweeney

Alert to NJEA efforts to humiliate him, the Senate President kicked off big last month, even throwing in a prop plane that circled above trailing a Sweeney banner, union guys by the dozens hanging on the backstop of a ballfield like Escape from New York extras, and at least one salty tongue lashing of President Donald J. Trump. Sweeney told InsiderNJ that those in his caucus dissatisfied with his leadership amount to a handful of senators who can’t muster a majority, and touted his record as a pro-labor, pro-working man lawmaker. But if the NJEA teams up with Kean, or even if Kean alone looks to finish what he started when he threw legitimate candidate Nikki Trunk in against Sweeney in 2013, the senate president will have to play defense – this time without the cross-the-aisle company of Governor Chris Christie howling at Kean’s Sisyphean efforts to elect a Republican against the senate prez in LD3. Some South Jersey Democrats are already writing off LD2 (that explains the swap out of Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo from the senate contest against labor-friendly Republican Assemblyman Chris Brown) as a way of keeping resources close at hand for the senate president. Junk LD2, cut the deal with BurlCo for what amounts to a dummy candidate propped up against the tough and talented Assemblyman Troy Singleton (see below) in LD7, then throw some cash at LD11 and LD38 – and leave a treasure chest in reserve in for LD3 in case Kean and or the NJEA decide to get cute. If he can win reelection and secure his senate presidency, Sweeney has a shot at becoming the longest serving senate president in New Jersey history. He has seven plus years in the bank now. Former Governor Donald DiFrancesco served on the throne from 1992 to 2002.

Eric Houghtaling and Joann Downey

They came into the legislature like interchangeable parts, their first names all but superfluous, dismissed as simply two filaments in the larger superstructure of Rube Goldberg machinery otherwise known as the New Jersey Democratic Party. Yanked on one side by North Jersey and pro-NJEA forces, and on the other by the seducers of South Jersey power, the LD11 lower house lawmakers are, by all accounts, simply the two nicest people in the world. But to get reelected in one of New Jersey’s true battlegrounds they will have to do more than simply turn out the lights and let the artillery war fend off the GOP. That’s why the pair of Democrats have attached themselves to Sweeney’s education spending reform bill. It’s not the NJEA-tweak favored by Speaker Vincent Prieto (D-32), and it’s the per pupil formula favored by Christie. Sweeney’s bill would fully fund the existing formula so that suburban school districts like those in the 11th receive their full allocation rather than the scraps left over after Abbott districts receive 70% of state education aid. Up against an incumbent in Senator Jen Beck (R-11) who’s worked the hell out of Hurricane Sandy, the pair of Democratic lawmakers like Sweeney have the advantage of Democrats eager to bulk them up with a legislative record. Hence, their prime sponsorship this week on a bill  like A-4204, which would require the state Office of Emergency Management to establish a county storm preparedness funding program.

Jen Beck

The senator from the 11th District faces the toughest election of her career, with the possible exception of that 2007 contest when she knocked off Ellen Karcher to get to the senate. It’s her affiliation with a Republican Party dominated by Christie for eight years and her opposition to the Equal Pay Act for Women (S-992) where her Democratic opponent’s allies appear eager to pin her down. But the senator has an arsenal of weapons to select from as she attempts to beat back Dem war drums.She took a hard early line against Christie’s gas tax for estate tax deal to pay for the depleted state Transportation Trust Fund (TTF). She was also the second GOP senator (after Senator Kip Bateman) to vote to override Christie. The Red Bank-based Beck has worked the Hurricane Sandy issue, championing the Homeowners Protection Act – S-532. Her bill would allow the Department of Community Affairs to bar contractors who commit fraud from

working in New Jersey and strip them of their licenses. It also would allow the Attorney General to sue on behalf of homeowners for negligence, when they currently can only act in criminal cases.  “We’ve heard too many stories of predatory contractors walking away from unfinished Sandy

recovery projects after getting paid, and of the State doing little to address complaints or prevent others from becoming new victims,” said Beck, who also will highlight her work – to date unsuccessful with a Democratic majority in charge – limiting sick time and vacation for public workers. The senator also seeks an overhaul of the schools funding formula. In her testimony before the Senate Budget Committee earlier this month, she noted that approximately 140 school districts are more than ten percent below adequacy. “We must address the funding formula to ensure that districts with triple-digit enrollment growth don’t receive less funding than those losing enrollment,” the senator said.

Andrew Zwicker

The smartest man in the legislature is also a nice guy. Maybe it’s just a case of the Princeton University physicist coldly and calculatedly reasoning that acting down to earth puts people around him at ease. People are afraid of nefarious scientists, they enjoy people who are friendly and regular, and so the 16th District assemblyman handles the situation by correcting away from Leonard Nimoy-like aloofness. Zwicker routinely comes across like someone in search of a game of pick-up basketball. In any case, the Democrat’s one of the most watched people in Trenton right now owing to the fact that he won his debut race for an assembly seat two years ago by fewer than 100 votes. Obviously alert to the numbers in his district, but fundamentally scientific, Zwicker prioritizes what he describes as evidence-based decision-making. As a scientist he sees policy-making as apolitical “as much as possible. That dovetails with what he picks up in the four-county 14-town district, like the time he went to talk to the late Senator Ray Bateman (R-16), and the legendary lawmaker gave him type-written advise for a new legislator. Zwicker framed it and hung it on  his wall. Not the sharpest elbowed person when it comes to bullying

people to get his name on bills, Trenton’s sharpest person wants to grow the state’s innovation economy, what he calls New Jersey’s biggest under-utilized resource. In committee, he tries to push people on the data. At an NJ Transit hearing, for example, he objected to a presenter’s use of a slide on childhood leukemia to fight a high volt

age power line in Monmouth. Zwicker noted that the project in question contained about the same magnetic field as a refrigerator and told the presenter to ditch the slide.  “I support you,  but this slide is not scientifically accurate,” the assemblyman said. “I understand how you feel,” was the rejoinder, to which Zwicker said, “This has nothing to do with feelings. This is about facts.” That’s the crux of his reelection candidacy. “We can have a debate about policies to mitigate climate change – that’s fine and valuable but a debate about whether climate change is real – that is a disservice to the country,” said Zwicker, who this morning attended a breakfast in his district for service veterans. One factor the assemblyman must consider – with some vexation – is the prospect of Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R-16) winning the Republican Primary for Governor. If Ciattarelli beats LG Kim Guadagno for the GOP nomination, his presence at the top of the ticket in his home district in the general election will present another challenge for Zwicker, right now the lone Democrat in the 16th Legislative Delegation. Needless to say, Zwicker fans – while committed to ensuring the assemblyman’s survival in all weather – prefer Guadagno atop the Republican ticket in November.

Jay Webber and Betty Lou DeCroce

So everyone knows by now that the two GOP Assembly people from LD26 hate each other, the shag carpet around their intra-office water cooler

the equivalent of Stalingrad. Actually, that’s not true anymore. They don’t share an office. Unable to work in the same space, half the team packed and shipped. Webber wants to cut her loose, by all accounts, and a Webber ally – Freeholder Hank Lyon – will use the branding iron of the gas tax hike to make the case for his candidacy. Friends of DeCroce say the tenacious assemblywoman took a position on funding the Transportation Trust Fund, while her foes presented no viable alternative. “Being reasonable is okay,” said one GOP source, when InsiderNJ asked how she makes the case in a Republican District for why she backed the unpopular gas tax. “You have to govern.” Lyon, though, will apparently go beyond just the tax argument, as he hits the retired Roxbury clerk for being a double dipper. Ever the austere Jeffersonian, Webber will make the case for himself not by unloading on the voters a roster of bills he favors, so much as by highlighting those Democratic measures he sought to stop. His strategy is not to write new laws so much as to advocate for the right ideas. He does have one bill out there now, which would stop kid-groping deadbeat teachers in their tracks.

Kevin Rooney

No one knows him. A blank chalkboard of a human being to the rest of Trenton, the 40th District Republican lawmaker has no record of service in Gomorrah, which could prove an asset in a bloody GOP Primary. Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R-21) just did a fundraiser for him, but to date Rooney has left no significant fingerprints on any legislation under the Gold Dome. Keep an eye on him. He has a runway here with one of the most watched contests in the state to mold himself into an identifiable brand name.

Steve Oroho

Most Republican expect the 24th District Senator to bludgeon Assemblywoman Gail Phoebus as punishment for her

decision to run against him. But Oroho’s last (very) tough election was in 2007 when he defeated Assemblyman Guy Gregg for the senate seat. Now he’s got to get up on his toes to truly throw Phoebus out of Trenton – and with her any lingering ill will from those Republicans in his Sussex-based district who dislike him becasue he was the main Republican on the gas tax for estate tax swap to pay for the Transportation Trust Fund. “With this legislation in place, we can now move forward on crucial transportation projects that are in need of attention without putting the burden on local property taxpayers,” Oroho said this week in a statement, referring to S-3076. “The funding of our TTF is so important because a sound, well-maintained transportation infrastructure is key to our state’s economic vitality, it brings needed jobs and will continue to ensure the safety of the traveling public.” The bill appropriates $400 million from the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF), including $260 million for immediate road and bridge repairs across the state and $140 million for technology and safety improvements at New Jersey Transit. It’s a tough case to make in a hard red district, but Oroho trusts he can make it.

Declan O’Scanlon and Troy Singleton

This is a pair of veteran assemblyman, a Republican and Democrat respectively – looking to make the transition to the state senate. Each has an interesting story to tell. O’Scanlon negated a veteran assemblywoman in Amy Handlin to get the GOP nod to succeed state Senator Joe Kyrillos in the 13th District, while Singleton smothered veteran Assemblyman Herb Conaway to carry the Democratic banner into the 7th District upper house with the retirement of Senator Diane Allen. How O’Scanlon from tiny literally little Little Silver out-hustled behemoth Middletown to get the line bears future telling. For his part, Singleton has deep ties in the legislature going back to when he worked for Speaker Joe Roberts. These two have routinely fought each other on the floor of the assembly, and the likelihood is their rivalry will continue in the senate. Look for Conaway – or even Allen – to surface in a Phil Murphy Administration as repayment for a cleared Singleton lane.

John McKeon

The chairman of the Assembly Judiciary Committee has a big toe in CD11. If U.S. Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-11) looks at all vulnerable to a general election challenge by a Democrat, watch McKeon take a crack at him in 2018. But McKeon – a smart and talented attorney from West Orange – should be watched in any event. He’s at the top of his game now and looking – conceivably – for another dropzone. That could end up being attorney general in a Murphy Administration. If the deal for Sweeney as senate president and Craig Coughlin for speaker collapses, LD27’s McKeon could be a card for speaker that Essex could play (just as state Senator M. Teresa Ruiz could be that Essex play if Sweeney fell apart, there was some buzz at her fundraiser last week) in trying to get out from under South Jersey’s considerable influence.

Craig Coughlin

The low-key assemblyman from Middlesex County continues to avidly make the rounds in pursuit of the

speakership. The Woodbridge attorney, a Democrat, has South Jersey’s support, in addition to a Middlesex delegation unified on his behalf. To those northerners who crave a Phil Murphy-backed rebellion against the south, it should be pointedly noted that Middlesex was that north of I-195 county most stoutly behind Murphy from the outset, which reinforces the south on their deal for Sweeney because Middlesex not only gets a friendly governor but its own speaker in Coughlin. The only thing Coughlin has to watch is the potential for an all-out, Murphy-endorsed northern invasion. But again this seems unlikely. Bergen  Democratic Chairman Lou Stellato leaned Steve Fulop – not Murphy – in the pre-primary season, and favored Assemblyman Gary Schaer for speaker. Murphy denying a loyal early backer like Coughlin for Schaer makes little sense. But if the north won’t be denied, look to the more likely McKeon option (above) for Essex. Still, it’s not a likely outcome. At the moment, Coughlin lo0oks solid.

Shavonda Sumter

State Party Chairman John Currie generally gets the most behind the scenes credit for being that immovable object who brought the northern county chairs together in support of Phil Murphy for Governor, thereby all but ending the statewide 2017 Democratic Primary. In return, Currie appears likely to be rewarded with the presence of his goddaughter, the assemblywoman from Paterson, on the Murphy ticket as the Democrats’ candidate for lieutenant governor.

Sean Kean and Dave Rible

No one said anything about veteran Republican state Senator Bob Singer (R-30) retiring, but Republican sources in Monmouth County say the two assemblymen from Wall are jockeying early for the upper house. Kean was already a senator, and wants to get back what he lost as a consequence of 2011 redistricting. He will have a challenge in front of him with a motivated Rible working the inside game on the ground in their home town with delegate recruitment while also playing the dedicated role of Republican Party numb er two to statewide GOP animal Jon Bramnick.

Honorable Mention

Chris Brown

Having scared Democrats away from fielding their groomed candidate for the forthcoming vacant senate seat, the 2nd District Republican Assemblyman is practically in endzone dance mode in Atlantic County.

John Wisniewski and Ray Lesniak

The former Democratic State Party chairs are going out on their shields with respective gubernatorial campaigns. They’re both in hail Mary mode, so anything could happen.

Jack Ciattarelli

On the trail now more than in his caucus, the 16th District Republican assemblyman running for governor can always use the bully pulpit of the legislative floor to hammer a point in his contest with LG Guadagno.