Redistricting in CD-3 has shaken up the map and presented a myriad of issues for political scientists to analyze regarding the upcoming 2022 Midterm Election in New Jersey.  The map decided upon was the one chosen by the Democratic Party and in the case of CD-3, removed Ocean County, which is a Republican stronghold, and theoretically made the district less competitive. This gave an advantage in registered Democrats to Republicans to the incumbent, two-term Congressman Andy Kim.

Kim is facing a challenge from Republican Bob Healey who has been actively campaigning in the newly arranged district and hoping to displace the congressman after the voters head to the polls on November 8.

Although Ocean County is no longer part of CD-3, the district has gained new municipalities, such as Robbinsville and Hamilton Township.  Hamilton Township is seen as extremely competitive and Governor Phil Murphy beat Jack Ciattarelli in 2021 by roughly 500 votes.  Hamilton is considered to be a town which could go either way, and while presently in Democratic control, the electoral margins are small.  No one party can claim a huge mandate.

Could towns so closely divided like Hamilton prove a bellwether for the rest of the district?  Time will tell.  But in any case, Hamilton had previously been represented by Republican Congressman Chris Smith, so both Congressman Kim and Healey are relative newcomers in that sense.

The Healey campaign thinks that this presents an opportunity for making progress in flipping the blue district to red.

“Hamilton, at its core, is a blue collar and diverse town,” campaign manager Theresa Velardi told Insider NJ. “Those are two natural constituencies for a candidate like Bob. He’s an employer of a diverse workforce, he has built hospitals and schools in west Africa. He’s been a punk rocker. He’s a yoga teacher currently. He’s able to connect with these types of people and these types of voters in a way that a career Washington-insider politician just can’t really compete with.”

Velardi said that Congressman Chris Smith, who used to represent towns like Hamilton and Robbinsville until redistricting, had “some of the best constituent services in the state, so when we’re going around and when we’re speaking to voters in the district, and in these new towns, we really hear that that is something they want.”

The Kim campaign feels that there is an opportunity to be had with the new municipalities entering the district. The strategy, Kim campaign manager Forrest Rilling said, is simple: “let the congressman be the congressman.”

Hamilton and other towns new to the district, Rilling said, are “a huge opportunity to continue to spread the congressman’s message and his good work.  He’s done a lot of really substantial and consequential things in Congress in his four years. As much as we can get him in front of people, shaking hands and talking to them, either one on one or in a group, then we’re putting ourselves in great shape to really bring people together and create a coalition.”

While Ciattarelli lost Hamilton by a small margin, the Healey campaign is looking to build upon the goodwill cultivated by Congressman Smith and hopes that Republican favor will carry forward.  “This campaign has spent a great deal of time in those towns because we feel that since they’re going from Congressman Smith, we’ve seen a great amount of unity or Republican enthusiasm in that town, because they were represented for so long by a Republican leader. Because they’re losing what they’re used to, and they’re not familiar with Andy Kim–and the things that they’ve heard about them don’t match up with their values–we’ve had great success in the towns.”

Meet-and-Greet events, Velardi said, have been successful and brought out new faces which they attribute to a positive feeling towards the Republican Party.  “They’re completely new people, but not party faithful that we’ve seen for the past few years. They’re new faces and new energy. That’s very encouraging.”

The advantage every incumbent has, of course, is the record of their past achievements in office.  

“We’re trying to get the congressman on the ground to meet with as many voters as possible,” Rilling said. “When we can do that, the congressman gets to talk about how he’s helping with health care and the Inflation Reduction Act.  He gets to talk about how he’s working to ban members of Congress from owning individual stocks, protecting health care, reinstating Roe v. Wade, and being an advocate for veterans.”

The Healey campaign is optimistic that the new territory can be flipped, citing social and economic concerns from voters they have been in contact with.  “Even in some of the areas that might lean bluer, the issues that voters find important are that we’re seeing record high inflation, rising crime, and radical school curriculums. Issues like these that just don’t match up with their values,” Velardi said.

No grass is growing under the shoes of Team Kim, however, and Rilling noted that the congressman is expanding his outreach to the new towns and keeping his finger on the pulse of the small business community in the district.  “Even with some of these towns that we haven’t been to before, the congressman is still making touches with small businesses all over, in new and old turf. Just yesterday, Congressman Kim did a small business event at the Joint Base where a lot of small businesses from all over, both the new and old district, were going to be there. He is making those touches to businesses in the new district and trying to build that coalition. The congressman is the only member of Congress from New Jersey on the House Small Business Committee. Those meetings are really important, too. He’s putting in the work.”

With new territory on the map come new opportunities.  If the numerical advantage of registered Democrats leans in favor of the incumbent, there is the practical consideration that voters are not merely numbers.  The fact that Congressman Kim needs to introduce himself (and sell himself) for the first time to voters in Hamilton and similar swing-towns, may work to equalize the playing field for Bob Healey.  With Election Day closing in, both seek to win the confidence of their new potential constituents as well as establish credibility.