The Red-Shift 2024: Bergen County

Schepisi

Bergen County, New Jersey’s most populous county with over 957,000 residents, typically embodies moderation with a solid Democratic Party. Case in point, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, serving since 2018 in CD-5, built his brand around the idea of bipartisanship and across-the-aisle cooperation. Thus far, it has paid off for him, even surviving the Red Wave of 2024, which dramatically crashed over traditionally blue New Jersey. Even a Democratic stronghold, like Bergen, shifted notably redder from 2020. Four years ago, Joe Biden handily carried Bergen—along with the rest of New Jersey—against Donald Trump. On election day 2024, however, Vice President Kamala Harris barely captured New Jersey as a whole, and the Bergen map saw multiple flips from blue to red. Neighboring Passaic County was a bloodbath for the Democratic Party, even though Democratic U.S. Rep.-elect Nellie Pou eked out a win, Chairman John Currie’s battle lines retreated throughout the entirety of Passaic, leaving only a blue island of Paterson, Haledon, and Prospect Park to deliver majorities for Harris.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton took 231,211 Bergen County votes to Donald Trump’s 175,529, according to NorthJersey.com. Four years later, Joe Biden got 285,967 votes in Bergen compared to Trump’s 204,417 in 2020. (Of the 565 municipalities in the state, 310 went for Biden.) In November of 2024, Bergen delivered Harris 224,863 votes and Trump received 210,870, a difference of only 13,993 compared to the advantage of 81,550 Joe Biden enjoyed.

Of Bergen’s 70 municipalities, 32 went for Harris. Twenty Bergen municipalities flipped from blue to red: Alpine, Carlstadt, East Rutherford, Elmwood Park, Fairview, Garfield, Hasbrouck Heights, Little Ferry, Lodi, Mahwah, Midland Park, Montvale, Moonachie, Oakland, Ramsey, Ridgefield, River Vale, Rochelle Park, Upper Saddle River, and Wood-Ridge,

Insider NJ spoke with Republican State Senator Holly Schepisi of the 39th Legislative District (pictured, top) for her thoughts on the post-electoral changes in the county.

Overall, Schepisi was pleased with the strong turn-out for the Republican Party in Bergen. “I think the most telling shift in Bergen County were some historically very blue communities that overwhelmingly voted for Trump,” she told Insider NJ. “When I was a kid, the Democratic Party was viewed to be more of the party of the working class, the party of unions, and people who maybe were first-generation immigrants. The Republican Party, when I was younger, was viewed to be a little bit more of the elitist party. I think that perception has shifted significantly over the past several years, and we’ve been seeing a trend.”

The senator said she thinks the Democratic Party had failed to fully appreciate the struggle so many traditionally Democratic voters were facing. These were, she said, “a result of inflation, a result of the pandemic, and as a result of policies that have just made day to day living incredibly difficult, particularly in New Jersey.” Schepisi noted that Governor Murphy’s campaign language, when he had said in 2021, “if taxes are your issue, we’re probably not your state,” served as a symptom of an increasingly out-of-touch Democratic Party that, ultimately, suffered in the 2024 election. “It’s really kind of a hard shift left by the Democratic Party towards social issues, as opposed to attempting to fix the day-to-day realities for so many,” Schepisi said. “I think the Republican messaging on that has been much better. I think there’s a group of people who are trying to focus on that meaningfully, and I think that’s why we saw communities like Little Ferry, Garfield, and Fairview, had a very significant shift in this presidential election.”

Donald Trump “overwhelmingly” had carried the Republican messaging, she said, which in turn influenced how Bergen County communities turned out to vote. She hopes that more progress will be made in keeping the red gains in the county going forward. “I think now it’s incumbent upon us, meaning the Bergen County Republican Party, to really go into areas throughout Bergen that maybe people haven’t paid enough attention to. [Republicans may have] been thinking that it’s been Democrat for so many years, that we won’t make strides. We should really be on the ground in communities saying, ‘we hear you and we have plans to help you.’”

Schepisi also blamed one-party-rule in the Trenton legislature for the past twenty years for making the state expensive and difficult for families to thrive in. “Bergen County has, historically, gotten the short end of the stick for its residents,” Schepisi said. “We send to the state more than 30% of the state budget through tax revenue. Historically, we’ve received back less than 3% of that money. We have among the highest property taxes and greatest density. For a county like ours, the most populous, we keep getting slammed on affordable housing numbers. Our schools receive among the least amount of funding in the state. I think that cumulative impact is now starting to resonate, and we do have very educated voters in Bergen County. You see significantly more split-ticket voting in Bergen than you see in other areas. I think part of that split-ticket voting is because the Republican Party in Bergen has not had the resources for the past 5, 6, or 7 years, as compared to the Democrats, to get the messaging out. But I think that with us all working together and really focusing on the ground game, we have had tremendous strides in flipping local communities over to Republican for our local candidates.”

Some of the effective strategies were, according to Schepisi, targeted, aggressive campaigning and promoting the options of vote-by-mail and early voting. Republicans had been cool to these alternative forms of voting in the past, but the 2024 election has shown Republican voters have embraced them, especially early in-person voting. Democrats remain dominant in votes-by-mail.

“We should have a very good opportunity in this upcoming year to take back portions of Bergen County,” the senator said.

New Jersey Democrats have enjoyed a nearly one-million advantage in voter registrations, but the last few elections have proven that Republicans can nevertheless be competitive when the Democratic base is unimpressed or unmotivated by their choices. Such was evident by Jack Ciattarelli’s near-win in 2021 and Kamala Harris’ poor showing throughout the state. The numbers show that Donald Trump did not necessarily surge in popularity among New Jerseyans, but rather Democrats stayed home. “We learned in this election cycle that with appropriate messaging for the first time in a long time, I think the Bergen County Republican Party is going to be able to fund and provide resources to really work cohesively, rather than fighting one another,” Schepisi said, referring to infighting within the Bergen County GOP that has plagued the party in recent years. Perhaps, then, ballot successes in the county will provide motivation and cause for unity among the GOP going forward—time will tell, but Schepisi seemed optimistic.

 

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