Incumbent U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew has posted strong numbers in Cape May, his home county.

Mash these with Van Drew keeping it close in Atlantic County and it appears to be a heavy lift for the challenger.

Official numbers, and Cumberland and Gloucester (where Van Drew had an early night lead) are still to come, and Kennedy could come back there.

But Van Drew – with Ocean numbers also in his favor – has an edge right now.

It all comes down to Cumberland, a Democratic-controlled county where Van Drew served for nearly two decades as a Democrat before he changed parties.

What’s wrong?